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650A Tuesday Aug 31: adjusted headline with mdi-iso Major impact esp NJ/LI, Dropped PRE since no TC and therefore no criteria. 6AM Sunday August 29 thread title update. Added general 2-8" rainfall, added possible PRE, and withdrew the ? of direct or indirect. Description of increasingly likely impacts around 7AM Sunday. This issuance makes the presumption that IDA will be our next Tropical Storm and move north into the Gulf states, shearing out into the Northeast or mid Atlantic states 500MB confluence zone next week. For now the risk of all the tags above is low, but worthy of monitoring. It's possible our first rain (if indeed IDA spreads rain into our NYC subforum?) might arrive late on August 31st. Think at this point, antecedent soil saturation and streamflow conditions will assist determining whether there will be any renewed stream flooding, if indeed IDA does dump a stripe of 3-6" of rain in a portion of our subforum. Chance of 35+ KT wind gusts is also low with the main contribution of IDA, rainfall, to Septembers total. Tides are fairly low so am not anticipating any problem with tides, at least not at this Thursday August 26th thread initiation. Attached the 12z/26 GEFS 500 MB membership for 12z Wed Sept 1 to show the confluence zone and also the 12z/26 24 hr qpf from the EPS and GEFS. For now these show a glancing blow to our south with a complete subforum no rain miss still possible, but not likely. The WPC Day 6-7 forecast issued 1622z/26 confirms the potential for at least some rain.- 511 replies
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