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  1. The evolving pattern this coming week is continuing to model high CAPE (Heat Index NYC metro non-marine influenced near 100F) Tue-Wed and even Thursday afternoons with enough wind aloft and instability to permit one or 2 days of SEVERE storms in our area. Tuesday SVR appears relegated North of I80 (mainly NYS/CT). Wednesday to me looks like a potentially big day, especially I80 region northward with TT in the lower 50s, big CAPE. Thursday into Friday: Uncertainty on evolution but big CAPE and instability probably remain in the vicinity of our subforum. It too could be a severe day, however of interest is the eventual position of the frontal boundary. IF, it drifts down into our subforum with light north-northeast flow north of it, then it seems to me the projected path of decayed ELSA wind fields and moisture plume - convergence (925-850MB southerly flow overrunning a cool frontal boundary, ranging up to the 200MB RRQ of jet located in se Canada) would promote the potential for a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) as documented in research by NYS associated well known mets. Have added a couple of their composites. These 4+" events occur 24-36 hours in advance of the TC, located hundreds of miles north or northeast of the TC even though the TC itself can miss to the south. If it doesn't and tracks over the PRE then that magnifies the potential sub-basin (mesoscale) trouble. As we are aware, we're starting to pile up the water across our subform so this potential result-NOT guaranteed, should be monitored and we'll see if it can occur, fritter, or displace north of our subforum. I'm doubtful if the potential displaces south of us. My guess is we'll know by Tuesday or Wednesday. In the meantime, I think we can expect severe storm wind/hail in parts of our area during midweek, along with possible storm cluster FF in PW air of 1.6", and probably should monitor the evolution of ELSAs ensembled wind fields up this way. Composites are added, as well as 00z/3 EC PWAT for late Thu (showing the TC well south but PWAT axis up near here). This is imperfectly modeled, the speed and location of ELSA and associated wind fields will adjust and affect the results. Let's see how this may breakdown and whether or not we can pick up ISOLATED 4-6" new rainfall between Tue-Fri in parts of our area-ISOLATED. WPC went to press this morning with a general 1"+ for our area, which supports embedded isolated heavier. You probably recall around the 28th-29th they had our entire area 1.5" for the current ongoing event with general 2"+ central and S NJ. Appears they did quite well. 638PM Monday July 5- EDITED Title to include ELSA- Too much modeling is drifting its track within range of coastal NJ and LI for Tropical Storm considerations Thu night-Friday AM. While it's not certain to make a direct second landfall across LI/southeastern New England, think it best to open the door a little more, at the least for 4+" rains this week combined convective outbursts and whatever Elsa.
  2. Hi. 12z/8 modeling still quite variable, some suggesting heavy rainfall, especially LI-CT. As of the 2PM Wednesday NHC TWO---70% chance of developing into a tropical system. Usually, for heavy rain, and tracking a tropical system. I try to follow the 850MB vort. East-southeasterly Inflow suggests a period (duration unknown) of heavy rain much of the NYC forum sometime Friday or Friday night-Saturday morning in PWAT greater than 2.25". I tend to focus on heavy rain being very close to the 850 vort center. May see brief gusts near 35 kt for a short time in squalls near the center NJ, LI coasts. I don't think tidal flooding is major concern, and it will have to be perfect timing with the high tide cycle since we're descending into the lower part of the tide cycles. We may not see much lightning with this, except in initial intensification Thursday or Friday. Others should comment and adjust the thinking and keep track of everything. Not sure who moves this thread to Tropical "if "it becomes named FAY? Thanks for all!
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