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  1. While uncertainty exists on the target for a rain to hazardous brief commuter significant snow event, a thread has been started to take the load off January. Thursday morning I84-NYC-PHL: Looks like 1-3" of snow in a 6 hour period centered on sunrise, with potential significant impact to morning travel due to temps falling to freezing during snowfall. There is model uncertainty on amounts. Snow could fall for an hour at 1/2-1". I84 itself seems to be on the northern fringe where snowfall could be less than 1". Amounts also depend on how fast the preceding predawn rain showers change to snow but I am confident of a snow event, just not confident who gets the biggest impact. Tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of travel impact. I would add that climo on something like this probably favors an inch or less NYC CP, but I do think there is going to be a narrow lane of more than 1" per multiple model indications. NWS ensemble risk of greater than 1" is less than 30%, so that is the reasoning for calling this Potential, in the headline. 656PM: adjusted Title to OBS-NOWCAST. Added freezing rain and rain to the tags. First batch of mixed precip should arrive ne PA, extreme nw NJ and se NYS around 1-2A as snow freezing rain-rain, but the primary batch is slated to occur between 5AM and Noon as snow north and west of NYC til NYC-Li and NJ I95 changes to snow around 7-830A. It ends from northwest to southeast, first in nw NJ by 11A and then NYC by 1P and further southeast during mid afternoon. Amounts near I84 of a dusting to possibly 2" with a general 1.5-4" in the core of the event from near NYC/LI-down I95 in NJ. It may briefly snow 1/2mi moderate for an hour or so. Still a little uncertain where the 4 inches are...probably NJ/LI.
  2. Modeling is favoring the development of some sort of extensive precipitation event along the east coast, with either the first or second of two short waves carving a pretty deep, albeit temporary 500MB trough in the eastern USA between next Friday and Monday. At least until Tuesday the 18th when the results of the 16th-17th are in, lets hold off on single model solution hype. Three graphics added, two from the 08z/16 WPC issuance. Low prob 3+" of snow, and the third was the CPC D8-14 hazard graphic, it paints a small chance of heavy snow just north of I-80 again (just like this 16th-17th event). It also ,not shown here,has a high chance of very cold air here 22nd-28th. 7AM/18 Update: I've updated the thread title-no guarantees our NYC subforum will share in what is coming to the Demarva-Carolinas but it seems models are gravitating to a decent snowstorm for a portion of the mid Atlantic and possibly through southern NYS-southern New England. 718A/21: Changed thread title to add part one was about 150mi too far southeast (slightly less average error for a D5 forecast than NHC on tropical systems). Withdrew wind from the tag. Otherwise the overall intent of the thread remains the same.
  3. Please follow National Weather Service warnings/statements. Starting from another 10 degree morning in NYC, a rapidly changing weather scenario will cause some power outages, accidents (despite a Holiday weekend) and slippery travel for a time in a fairly large portion of the forum, in part due to at least 42 consecutive hours of freezing temperatures on non snow covered ground, and beginning near sundown when the impact of solar insolation lessens. Exactly who gets how much of what is being determined by member observations with model and forecast contributions enhancing, but not hyping interest. Coastal flood threat as per OKX. Usually we like at least 12 hours of gale force onshore flow to build the water levels, but with the astronomically higher tide cycle, 980s MB pressure at Monday morning high tide, an inch of rain in the 6 hours up to high tide emptying from rivers-streams, there should be enough surge and incoming wave action to cause coastal flooding. Working a bit against the flooding NYC southward along the NJ shore is the onslaught of wind abating and turning southerly near the time of high tide. Certainly the early part of the morning high tide cycle looms larger. If you're in a tidal inundation area, follow NWS statements. I'd park my car with parking laws in mind where it can't get flooded. Wind damage: several 12z/16 HRRRX graphics are appended. Please use the legend. Midnight to 6AM is best chance for damaging wind , to occur in a 3hour period ranging from near 2A NYC to near 5A e LI. Gusts to 60 kt possible e LI with gusts 45 kt possible NYC metro airports. I could be too conservative. Have cell phones charged and be prepared for no internet early Monday. Many of our members, even to western LI will be reporting a bit of snow or sleet late today (some are from Ocean Effect already). mPing will be helpful especially for us inland folks just north of I78 where an hour or 2 error in the precip phase change from snow to sleet/freezing rain or rain can mean an inch or two of snow. The 12z HRRR, HRRRX, and 3K NAM seem to support slightly more snow than maybe some are anticipating. Whether that occurs is unknown. No matter, if you have heart problems and live north of I80, you may want some assistance removing slush laden with maybe 3/4" of rain (glop). And of course have your resources to clear it by 6PM Monday when temperatures falling below freezing start the solidifying process. {The HRRRX amounts may be too large by 2", so it is a slower to change model with 1/4-1/2" everywhere up through I84 by 06z, so that could bias the amounts high there. edited in at 1036AM} ICE: I think parts of the I84 corridor including Sussex County NJ may have pockets of damaging ice near 4AM Monday when the ice combined with wind gusts 45 MPH in the ridges could be enough to knock out some power. Monday afternoon-evening: The trough aloft passage and influx of colder air should wring out areas of 0.1-1" snowfall in the steep moist lapse rates associated with the cold pool aloft, including NYC-LI.
  4. 454AM Wednesday Jan 12: title and tags adjusted to drop Saturday, focus late Sunday-Monday morning for what appears to be an 18 hour storm of snow-rain-snow. Heaviest snow tends to be modeled west of the I-95 corridor but ensembles still warrant continued concern for the axis of heavy snow including I95. At this point far too uncertain but where it snows for 12 hours, widespread 6+" seems likely. Also a 6 hour period of potential 50 kt inflow gusts is possible for the coasts Sunday morning and if it occurs with the dawn Monday high tide, would result in coastal flooding, magnitude unknown. This does not appear to be a long duration storm (24 hours+) but it should be intense for a few hours Sunday night or Monday morning. Again track uncertain, and sensitive to the intensity of the surface low. There still is opportunity that this will track too close to our area for much snow but there are several days to adjust the track and resultant precipitation type. It does appear there will be a general inch to 1.5 inches of qpf with this system, maybe thunder too. A big storm with large scale impacts entire east coast-Appalachians. The only reason I didn't highly stronger wording for impact, is that this will occur later Sunday and the following Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday. --- At this 6-7 day lead time 8PM Sunday Jan 9 issuance, options are fairly wide open. For now, a light or moderate event 'seems' likely but absolutely not a lock, nor is a heavy event excluded. This event still could be demolished to zero by what happens off New England on the 14th, or what follows between the 19th-22nd. However there already has been discussion the past several days for the coming weekend. Ending 12z/9 the past 6 cycles of the ECMWF op, the last 4 cycles of the CMC GGEM [LI 3 cycles, I84-4 cycles] have some sort of snow event, especially I84. Maybe the GFS via it's 18z/9 cycle is shifting snow emphasis on the 16th for our area instead of bombing off the coast on the 14th? Having reviewed ensembles: 12z/9 EPS/GEFS/NAEFS all have some sort of frozen event is coming to the northeast USA, along and north of I80 including LI. Have added the broad coverage low chance WPC D7 issued at 17z/9, the EPS 24 hour qpf ending 12z/17 and the 12z/EC 850 MB low (GEFS so far has nothing, still favoring the 14th but not as far south and west as previous). NAEFS products for 00z/17 are added including previous 24 hr qpf, 00z sfc temp in C, and the sfc pattern. There will be quite a few model changes-conflicts and this could end up having been a wasted effort... but it seems worthy of further scrutiny as our next possible significant snow or ice event for at least a portion of the NYC subforum.
  5. Adding some baseline graphics from 12z-21z/6 guidance that tries to frame a realistic outcome of this event. Snow begins ne PA/extreme nw NJ 10PM-midnight and overspreads all of our area by 230 AM. Bands of heavy snow with around 1"/hour rates should develop in central and northern NJ between 3 and 4AM and become dominant across LI into southern CT between 5 and 7AM. It ends from southwest to northeast between 8AM and Noon across our NYC subforum. Scattered gusty flurries or brief snow showers could continue into late Friday due to steep and still somewhat moist lapse rates associated with the short wave passage. Cleanup should be swift shortly after the snow ends. An 850 MB low will try to get going south of Long Island near sunrise Friday which should permit the overall heavier snowfall from this intensifying coastal low to occur in New England, possibly back to eastern LI. High impact event for the morning commute--- should result in delays/cancellations of some morning activities. IF you have to travel, allow plenty of extra time. 1) NWS 5PM collaborated snowfall graphic. 2) NWS 5PM collaborated Storm Severity Index. 3) SPC HREF ensemble forecast snowfall (12z/6) 4) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 4AM 5) 18z/6 NAM Banding potential--see black areas for generating bands of heavy snow near 7AM 6) NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 2+" of snow. 7 NWS 21z/6 ensemble chance of 6+" of snow. Note the ensembles are not quite so bullish on 6" amounts. Do enjoy whatever we get... this should be fun for a little while.
  6. We are 48 hours or so from this potential system beginning in Western areas of the forum. We have concensus model agreement of a system sliding south of the forecast area, leaving us in the cold sector. Temps in advance are way better than yesterday's set up, which worked well for some and skipped others. Any rain here looks to be brief before the snow starts in snow favored areas. Though most areas are modeled to begin as snow and stay snow. The track of the 850 low was pretty classic for snow events nearly valley wide, though the southern border, as currently modeled, would probably see temperature issues. Should be an interesting 48 hours of model watching. This is a good second chance for some who missed the best bands yesterday.
  7. Cyclic modeling of the EC/GGEM and ensemble portion of the GFS since this weekend has been developing a fast moving late developing coastal low, resulting in a period of precipitation occurring mainly between midnight and 6PM Friday. Tracking and therefore precipitation type are uncertain but recent ensembles were offering at least 2" of snow to portions of our area, the EPS furthest west and the GEFS/GEPS a bit further east. The GFS op model has been generally offshore. If the low develops further north or further east, very little snow will occur here. Right now 850MB Low development looks too far north for a moderate event but probably worthy of monitoring and trying to figure it out. Based on the model performance for the 1/3/21 grazer snow, we may not know much til we see the NAM consistently give us 1/4" qpf in frozen form with more than 2" of event Total Positive Snow Depth as shown on the Tropical Tidbits web site. 12z/3 500MB ensemble plots below serve as a baseline to witness future modeling departures, GEFS top and EPS next. IF this approaching short wave ends up weaker or further north, it will be difficult to receive meaningful snow here. At 321PM added the 16z/3 WPC D4-5 probs of 1/4" frozen W.E. (lower 2 graphics) which bridges Friday morning 12z/7. The darker green is greater than 30% chance.
  8. 60/56 at DCA with 1005.5mb SLP at 2pm. Feels like snow.
  9. We're turning this into the TIMS thread. Thunder in the mountains model? Can it equal snow afterwards? If so, does severe weather = heavier snow? We'll know by January 3rd, lol.
  10. Overall assessment as modeling monitored through 6AM Monday. Complex intermittent snow to sleet to freezing rain scenario with potential for 0.1"-0.5" measurable snow sleet NYC-LI while parts of the I84 corridor receive spotty 1 to possibly 2" snowfall. It should begin in NYC/NJ/ne PA/se NYS between 11A-2P and CT maybe between 2-5P. While treated surfaces in metro NYC should be mostly wet, caution is advised everywhere. The National Weather Service has advisories posted for the I84 corridor. I think this could be more of a problem further south in NJ. Also: the worst of this for some of our area could occur near sunrise Tuesday if it clears after midnight and everything refreezes into a frosty icy mess, especially driveways, sidewalks-steps. No thread expected (at least not yet) for late Tuesday-early Wednesday where w wintry hazardous mess is expected again-at least for the high terrain of I84 (strong mid level Frontogenesis). A few graphics to give an idea of what should occur. 631A/27
  11. January discussion for all things winter in the Tennessee Valley Sub-forum. When we have a likely event 2-3 days out we can create an individual thread for said storm. It helps for record keeping purposes as a lot us like to look back on old threads to learn, etc. Merry Christmas to all as well, I hope everyone has a great holiday.
  12. Choose your model and since since the NAM through the 06z/23 cycle was dry in NYC, there is no guarantee this thread will be correct for NYC. I'm putting my money on the 06z/23 EC, HRRR, RGEM and allowing for a chance of 0.2" measurable snowfall in NYC early Friday morning. Temps I think will be down to 32F in NYC in a period of snow in the 2-4AM time frame, and then a question if it sticks, will it still be on the snow board at 7AM-12z/24 OBS time. So, if the HRRR/RGEM/EC/GFS don't shift the southern edge north during today's cycles, I am expecting a dusting up to an inch I78 region northward inclusive of northern LI and NYC, while the jackpot, 1-3" if you will, should lie further north from the Catskills through CT. Blame a warm frontal wave (passage of an area of pressure falls on the warm front to our south), ahead of the stronger low pressure heading for our area on Christmas. Ensembles are not enthusiastic for an inch of snow except well north of I84, so we need to keep than in mind as well. Adjusted the title at 609PM to add OBS and NOWCAST
  13. Many models have a little snow or ice for our area next Wednesday the 8th, possibly ending as rain? WPC Friday afternoons forecast has a half inch+ of qpf for our area next Wednesday and a 30-49% chance of 3+" of snow or 1/4 inch combined sleet/snow. Click the graphics. That's not too bad for a day5-6 forecast. I may have overreached on PROBABLE hazardous???? I do think there should be a little ice, at a minimum over the I84 high terrain. The rest of the area much more uncertain. We should be close to the right rear quad of an upper level jet core centered near Nova Scotia (130 knots 200-300MB) next Wednesday (see EPS 18z Wednesday 300MB), this behind the strong negative tilt short wave departure of Monday. A weakening 500MB short wave from the upper Midwest Wednesday morning crosses into northern New England by Thursday morning. The 850 Low is north of our area. Snow thicknesses are marginal especially south of I84, so that snow amounts this far in advance are VERY uncertain and likely to be less than 3" rather than more. Some sort of light to possibly moderate ice-snow event should occur in parts of our interior Wednesday Dec 8. One consideration is the qpf being less than currently advertised which would reduce amounts. This thread is posted to focus anyone's interest into the discussion. LI-coastal NJ--- primary modeling may eventually favor your area but for now, I think the primary ensemble considerations for a 6 to 18 hour period of hazardous wintry weather next Wednesday is to the northwest of I95. TAGS and Thread title may change this weekend or early next week. 717PM/3 Dec 2021 6AM Wednesday the 8th: converted this thread to OBS-Nowcast. No other change.
  14. A period or two of snow or flurries should move through our NYC subforum Sunday morning, with untreated slippery conditions in some areas, especially NJ/NYS. Precipitation will tend to melt on pavement over LI where it may change to rain showers toward forenoon. A large part of any snowfall should melt during the afternoon. The most likely area to receive spotty 1 inch amounts seems to be ne PA, w NJ and the se NYS hills. MPING may be helpful for those trying to know what is hitting the ground. Also the axis of heaviest (albeit a minor light snowfall) may not be determined until 3AM Sunday as the eastward streaking snow tends to show the most favored lift region. IF (and there is still doubt since some models including the 18z GFS, are dryer) this snowfall occurs, I'd consider it the first widespread very light snow of the season. Again IFFF. This excludes the flurries that occurred Friday into Saturday morning Nov 26-27 (measurable snow did occur over the northern fringe of the NYC subforum Friday). Best lift seems to be reserved for Monday morning when the sharper trough passes through, but the RH tends to be shallower and so there may not be much, if any, showery yield. Regarding todays (11/27 cycles) RGEM inverted trough mesoscale developments over CT/e LI Monday...unlikely but not out of the question. Does CP Measure more than a Trace:? Possibly, if whatever falls doesn't melt before the 7AM observation. More likely just brooms, than any shovel.
  15. 726PM/15: Our forum is well aware that the recent few days of modeling is favoring a developing -NAO (Greenland Block-anomalously warm 500MB heights) that probably won't fully activate until Thanksgiving and beyond. One sharpening-negative tilt trough is multimodeled to drive southeast from central Canada Sunday the 21st and close off somewhere over New England Tuesday the 23rd, then possibly lodge near Labrador (50/50) Thanksgiving while following shortwaves try to organize a trough near the east coast by next weekend. The latter initially associated clipper low ??may??redevelop far enough south to become a significant impact player in our weather BY next weekend. For the past couple of days modeling has favored early next week (22-23) for a possible rapidly intensifying low pressure system somewhere along the mid Atlantic or New England coast. This event still has many undetermined outcomes (as of this Monday 11/15 writing), with the 12z/Monday Nov 15 EPS favoring wet weather (0.25-1.5" of rain) possibly ending as a period of wet snow or flurries even to the coast late Tue or Wed. That wetter and slightly colder solution is not yet shared by the 12z or 18z/15 GEFS, which has development later and further northeast. The NAEFS QPF is not very robust either. In fact I cant find any ensemble modeling with an 850 LOW south of Massachusetts. However, of interest beyond the probably quiet Thanksgiving day, is the likelihood of a little colder air in place ahead of the next strengthening short wave. Depending on how far south the core of that short wave (VORT MAX) tracks, it could permit coastal development near LI/Cape Cod late Friday. A long shot now, but the NAEFS as of the 12z/15 cycle has a bit more qpf for the NYC forum, especially CT, than for the earlier event. In summary, the bombogenesis near LI shown on recent GFS/EC OP models is of interest but it is not (yet?) the preferred ensembled solution...just a possibility. If it eventually occurs, the tags and title of this thread will update and reflect a much stormier scenario. The potential exists but far too early for me to express confidence (despite the anomalously warm SST's near our coasts that would energize sfc development). I am as interested what might happen next Friday-Saturday, with colder air in place and what at this issuance looks like an ordinary frontal passage, might develop into something with a bit of wintry interest, for the forum. If this becomes a non consideration in a few days, I'll admit it. 545AM/16: Title added HIGH to impact. Changed wind event to Damaging Wind. No other changes at this time. Bombogenesis with associated variable but high impact weather across the subforum. Wraparound snow potential continues for a portion of there subforum. Snow event, at least for the interior seems to be shaping up for the I84 region, sometime between the 26th-28th. Will rereview sometime this evening and again early Wednesday. Potent pattern for one or two travel HIGH impact events NYC subforum Thanksgiving week: Mon-early Wed 11/22-24; & Fri-Sun 11/26-28. 540AM/24: The above was the headline issued on the 15th, having added HIGH to impact and changed wind to damaging wind, Thread now refocuses headline on part TWO 26-28, w possible extension to 29 in the future. Part ONE failed due to modeling leading up to the 15th issuance being too deep aloft, too quick. Ended up further east and we were dry with a chill gusty wind. Tags: dropped heavy rain, and changed damaging wind to wind event. Modeling beginning with the cycles of Tuesday the 23rd have increasingly hinted at a possible wind advisory event for part of the area later Friday into Saturday morning followed by some sort of snow or flurry event Sunday - possibly lingering into Monday. Questionable outcome but we do know the modeling is digging a 3rd strong short wave trough into the northeast USA late this coming weekend. Therefore, while the first on the 23rd didn't produce hazardous weather, the second may generate a bit of a wind event in the wake of the cold frontal passage late this Friday, and the 3rd may allow some sort of coastal low to develop Sunday, departing Monday the 29th. Uncertainty exists.
  16. Welcome to a place for weenies to share snow maps and fantasy storms that will never happen... unless they do, of course. Renew those model subscriptions and get to obsessively tracking those storms that are 16 days out. They say the big ones lock in early... Kicking us off for the season is a nice little run of the 00z EPS control. Still room for this to trend better!
  17. Day one of met fall, highs in the 70s, humidity fell through the day. Hard to beat after the heat, humidity and rain that ended met summer.
  18. Well, we are just one season away from winter. Nice to have a respite from the heat this week as the remnants of Ida depart the area. Thoughts and prayers for all of those affected by the hurricane along the Gulf Coast. Rainfall along the far eastern valley has been steady but reasonable - more as you go west I am nearly certain. This morning features light rain/drizzle and very low cloud decks. Lows in the northern valley are supposed to get into the 50s during the next few nights, and that is welcome news! Saw the first evidence of maples beginning to change color this morning. There is this one maple in our neighborhood which always changes first. Some of the dogwoods are beginning to show red in their leaves. Sycamores along the river are showing some yellow. For sure, some of that could be heat stress. Well, it is the first day of meteorological fall. I suspect this season will feature a quick snap to winter time temps late in the season. I am thinking warm early-mid fall, and then a sudden flip to cold. Somebody please fire-up an obs thread and also a banter thread for fall.
  19. 548A/17: Advisory situation may be coming to a portion of the forum-not a lock, for the Friday morning commute, despite probable less than official criteria amounts NYC/LI due to sharply falling temps to between 25-30F with sleet to snow in the 5A-8A time frame and gusty n-ne wind of 30-40 MPH. Snow ends sometime late morning-midday with temps recovering above freezing in the afternoon. Wind gusts for a few minutes between midnight and 8A could reach 50 MPH in parts of the area. Added wind event to the thread. Snowfall for NYC-LI T- at most 2", while a bit heavier seems likely I84 corridor extreme nw NJ of 1/2 to possibly 3". Think the best chance for 2+" in our subforum is CT. If the precip ends more abruptly, then we escape the advisory and amounts will be under 1" with the lesser snowfall of the 00z/17 cycle ICON, UKMET, 12K NAM considered. Note: as the transition to snow occurs, the first hour or two may be melting on most surfaces and certainly pack down to snow ratios less than 10 to 1, possibly closer to 7 to 1 or something like that. Some of the modeling has complications not only Friday, but also next Monday. For Friday, there could be two bands of halfway decent accumulative snow, one across I84 and the other just south of I78 across central or s NJ? TBD. Then, next Monday: the 00z/17 EPS and GEPS want to form a deep cyclonic circulation off the mid or south Atlantic coast this weekend and drift it north or northeast early next week, spreading rain back into the area. Depending on latitude of formation, will determine how much warming aloft occurs. ENS have 850 temps in the +3/+4C range next Monday, too warm for snow, provided all the excessive height rises and warming aloft that is modeled in the northeast occurs. If that shifts north, then there is a real long shot (very low chance) we might be looking at some marginal thermal profiles for a bit of wet snow in CT. At this time, I wouldn't be promising mostly clear skies and dry weather for Sunday afternoon-Tuesday morning. Added the 0841z/17 NWS ensemble prob for >1" of snow Friday. You can see the concern for going too heavy. --- Strong cold high pressure approaching Quebec Friday-Saturday will combine with an eastward moving and opening closed low in the Ohio Valley, to permit a period of wet snow here on Friday. Duration and intensity are uncertain along with resultant amounts (T-2"?) and will be related to the proximity of the positive tilt 500MB trough. For now, this could be considered a back-back system, modeled way back as early as the 00z/7th modeling cycle, that could provide as much snow to the parts of the forum, as whatever occurs late 16-17. The fresh influx of colder BL air from the north may even allow measurable snow into NYC? Most of the modeling favors a few hours of snow Friday morning with marginal accretion temps. Still, for an event at the tail end of winter for NYC, it could provide a little fun? This especially if the GEPS-NAEFS solutions of keeping the low close enough to continue significant qpf going into early Saturday. Then we would be talking about some potentially plowable snow to near NYC, but this is an outlier possibility for now and best at this time (D5) to favor conservative ,minor impact, at worst. Finally, if this storm system does hang around nearby to our south all weekend (low chance), it might make a northward drift into the CT/LI part of the forum Monday the 22nd, but by that time, the snow temp profiles have warmed to rain (probably exhausted the snow profile cold air supply).
  20. 626A/16: Not much. 00z/16 EC op and 06z/gfs v16 (para) are best chance of a little snow this afternoon-night, mainly n of I80. Doubt if NYC/LI can do more than T of snow-sleet if those elements occur. nw NJ might see spotty freezing rain showers tonight. Thread now converted to OBS-NOWCAST if and as needed. --- 543A/15: Below is my mental mesh of modeling (lower than usual confidence) on what happens late Tuesday-early Wednesday. I78-I84 corridors-periods of light snow, sleet or freezing rain likely begin Tuesday afternoon or evening and ends as rain Wednesday morning. Modeling uncertain-so my confidence on how much ice/snow is less than usual. There is a pretty good chance of at least spotty icing in PA/NJ that may require treatments. If it's snow, just a slightest covering to maybe an inch or 2 but can't promise all snow except CT/MA. I can see the need for some caution traveling untreated surfaces Tuesday night-early Wednesday. One model group: The GFS v15/16 have been hitting the snow harder along w the GEFS, for se NYS/extreme nw NJ/extreme ne PA with potential for 4" high terrain, if no ice. One of my concerns is ice in ne PA/nw NJ. For NYC-LI: Even with snow snow or sleet in the air, NYC may not measure anything more than T if it's light. If it manages the 00z/15 GFS scenarios, then yes, minor amount there. Better chance spotty minor amounts LI (under 1"). Follow the models. I'd like to see models, other than the GFS, become more robust. For now, the GFS solutions are outlier heavier outcomes. I don't know what to believe but the uncertainty on qpf volume, as well as thermal profiles suggest conservative expectations. --- 707A/14: Looked back on the original post of the 7th... seems like we may be onto something, but considerable model uncertainty, which tells me nothing big and impact minor, as always intended, but at least, I think, targeting the NYC subforum with a wintry event. In checking back the snow snow shower threat for the 14th was introduced on the 9th. Wind driven dustings of flurries I84 corridor with maybe a spotty half inch or so? (far N CT & Pocs). Wind gusts midday-this afternoon similar to those of early Saturday, maybe a touch higher with isolated power outages---generally 40-50 MPH. (I missed forecasting the gusts of early Friday where we in Wantage had 43MPH-320A). No OBS thread anticipated since trees not leaved. Can post obs in March 2021, unless you wish an obs thread for the midday-afternoon wind. Just let me know. Tuesday evening-Noon Wednesday: I78 northward to I84 (Tuesday night-Wednesday morning). Looks like (not guaranteed) a period of snow and possibly ice. If snow, generally an inch or less (spotty 2" possible high terrain?). iI ice, it would be minor but hazardous for untreated surfaces during the Tuesday night hours. For NYC-LI: same old uncertainty. EC for at least 3 cycles continues to insist on light snow with potential for a few tenths? I don't know. I am aware the the EC overall was always driest well in advance and also much slower to arrive (apparently handling the Rockies closed low much better than the GEFS/GEPS). Now am seeing some "possible" minor intensification of the short wave crossing our area early Wednesday. Anyway, road impacts should be negeligible except high terrain untreated's at night. ---- 554A/13: Maybe WY/CO utilized too much of the energy, so despite the short wave crossing our forum directly ~ Tuesday night, this thread will probably have been a waste of time. Modeling has dried up. Multiple 00z/13 ens and few models give us spotty light snow (or ice) Tuesday or Tuesday night but can't see this being a hazard now. In case it does the long odds minor snow measure in NYC, this might be the last decent chance of measurable snow in the city, associated with a -NAO? So, while the door seems to have closed, still worth a look once a while. In the meantime, a few flurries (unstable lapse rates as cold dry aloft sweeps south through New England) seem possible in much of the forum Sunday (14th), with scattered dustings in ne PA, CT, se NYS. --- 648A/12: Whittled down the days from 14-16 to just 16th. Lots of words and uncertainty for a potential modest wintry event. This should be a bit simpler by now. 00z-06z/12 GFS series is the only primary operational model holding onto a wintry event while most other operational models have dried up. That modeling disparity is not a good sign for an event as we draw closer to whatever transpires. I do have some doubts about how this works out. By 430PM (2130z/12) this afternoon, you'll have a pretty good idea via the 84 hour NAM whether the GFS is out to lunch by checking the leading edge of whatever the NAM has against the predictions of the GFS. For now, I think the 12z/12 84 hr NAM has to have leading edge close to CLE-PIT, and the 18z cycle something to BWI-AOO at 84 hours, and the RGEM has to pick it up as well. If not, then prospects for the GFS solutions are probably evaporating and this c(w)ould be a wasted thread-busted expectation. Of course the 12z/12 volatile EC will be available. It's possible the dry air associated with cold surge Sunday-Monday will evaporate the oncoming warm front- vort max associated wintry precip, as the decaying Midwest short wave shoots into the confluence zone here in the northeast. GEFS and even the EPS have a nice RRQ of the upper level jet pulling for us, with weak 850 WAA but lack a little punch on the LFQ of the upper level jet near 35N latitude. 00z/12 GEPS and 00z-06z GEFS continue with modest qpf and relatively cold, so that 2-8 hours of snow-sleet is modeled coming for most of the NYC subforum Tuesday, including NYC-LI with a base snowfall near 1" (potential 4-5" highest elevations of I84 but that is completely qpf dependent). It should begin ~6A western NJ/se NYS, maybe 8A-Noon NYC/CT. It would then end as rain LI-NJ Tuesday night-early Wednesday along and s of I80 but possibly as freezing rain I84 corridor. Again, my assessment is predicated on ensembles of GEFS/GEPS. It's not big but it appears to me to be the best wintry option for NYC the next week or so. The back-back (18-19 second event) is even more uncertain with respect to wintery elements and if there are back-back snow-ice events, I think best chance I84 corridor, which does not guide me to a thread, since 18-19 currently doesn't have big snow prospects for NYC metro. 604A/11: will post additional impressions around 745A. Running a little late. As I see it... game on... if these models can finally hold serve as intended when the thread started. Even NYC might see a bit of snow. IF, in the future, all this fritters to minuscule under 1" amounts of snow and only n and w of NYC, then this thread will hold for OBS/NOWCAST. That's me thinking downside. As of now, 00z/11 UK/EC ops trying for a hazardous snow event n of I80 (hills best for road acc at this mid March sun angle). I just haven't caught up yet with ensembles etc. At least now, the models are agreeing on an event of sorts directly NYC subforum, with a period of extensive ice/snow potential interior NC- New England, mainly nw of I95. 604A/11 Appended at 755A, with the GEFS ensemble maps later in the thread. Monday - Wednesday (15-early 17): Snow-ice probably ending as rain for a large chunk of the northeast USA. Snow develops sometime Tuesday and ends by sunrise Wednesday either as ice or rain. Too early to lock in snowfall but my guess: I84 anywhere from 1" minimum to a low chance of a much as 7" for a few high terrain locations. Models still uncertain on developments but something wintry is coming. EPS is the only ensemble less than 1/4" w.e. qpf now, and this was followed by WPC on the their overnight shift which has basically nothing for I84. So uncertainty continues but from my perspective snow to ice is an 80-90% chance of occurrence for the suburbs w-n NYC, in part by the -NAO. NYC, barring BL warming, I see a pretty good chance of snow or sleet to start on the 16th. Please see attached 06z/11 GEFS ensemble 500MB for 18z/Tue-16 and 06z/Wed-17 with confluence to our north and nice short wave heading into the mid Atlantic. I like this look and presuming it holds (still spaghetti uncertainty in the members- tho I don't think south bears the brunt of there snowfall anymore except VA's highest terrain). --- 659A/10 update added here at 746A. 00z-06z/10 modeling continues all over the place. In essence, I've no significant change to this thread. Something wintry is coming. EC looks too slow and both EPS/GEFS 500mb patterns shoot the decaying Midwest short wave across the area later on the 16th. I expect that snow-sleet will overspread from the west, much of the I95 corridor from Baltimore to New Brunswick, then on the 16th while changing to rain south of I78, overspreads the remainder of the forum by late in the day. How long the snow-sleet before a change to rain (except ice se NYS/CT/extreme nw NJ)? This should be the first of two or three foreseeable wintry events opportunities for the subforum though the last two should be mostly I84 corridor (18-19, 22-23). My guess, if NYC is to get some snow, it has to be with this first opportunity (Tuesday the 16th). 00z-06z/10 ensembles used to modify the op cycles which would say, forget it for the subforum on the 15th-16th. This could be my mistake. I tend to use ensemble patterns in the longer range and focus on the ops inside of 4 days. 659A/10 --- 251-3P/9: Graphics added on with the originating post at the end of this page. Multiple 12z/9 ensembles are producing snow and ice for the NYC subforum beginning with possible scattered southeast moving cold shot snow shower dustings late Saturday or Sunday, and then a widespread light-possibly moderate wintry event 15-16. This one may even try to bridge back to another oncoming wintry event late 18-19, though with a 24 hour break later 17-18. Staying with the 15th-16th: Whether this wintry system goes the route of the most depressed GEFS, or the closer to LI, EPS and GGEM/GEPS? Something wintry continues to keep coming and while the EC had its 1-4" north of I80 on the 00z/9 cycle it now had it south of I80. This will be the first widespread wintry event of the second half of March, and as Bluewave implied, quite possibly more... this too signaled by the CFS for a few days (multiple NYC subforum snow-rain events). Graphics are the 12z/9 EPS snow (10-1), GEFS snow, GEPS snow depth returning south of I80 with a 00z-3/15 view and a 06z 3/17 view of SD 251P/9 --- 655A/9: Lot's of words follow, for the modeled proposed wintry mix solution early next week. So, the door continues open for a small wintry weather event, snow-ice to rain with very low confidence for any snow accumulation - NJ coast-NYC. Modeling continues vacillating but it appears to me it's gathering a bit of a trend for a well defined warm frontal wave e of Cape May/s of LI. (not so the 00z/9 GGEM,). It's a WAA situation over the remaining cold influx of this weekend. The weakening short wave out of the Midwest, is delayed a day so will remove (early) on the 16th from the title and drop the 14th. Whatever might have occurred the 14th might still occur, but more so late Saturday the 13th but that is a very low chance and negligible. Otherwise, ensembles are less than 2" on snow acc. Operationally the 00z/9 GFSv15-16 continue with minor ice/snow interior, while the 00z/9 EC... probably can't hold it's operational 00z/9 offering in subsequent cycles, but the EC just tells me, that that heavier single member option is still on table, as proposed a couple of days ago by multiple GFS cycles. In short: there is still a chance for snow-ice, but this is probably just your typical probably only minor event, destined mainly for the interior. This barring a reinvigoration and deepening eastward moving short wave out of the Midwest as the following short wave hurls the ridge northward behind it. Right now, 06z/9 WPC has spotty 10% chance of .25" frozen w.e. precip in the nw part of our subforum. Another way to look at this, it's a 90% chance of non-occurrence. --- 607A/8 Update: Closed low departure into midwest seems a little slower, so overall arrival may be delayed til late 15? Still looks favorable for a period of wintry qpf event anywhere in our subforum, with possibly something near the reinforcing CAA short wave Sunday, and then most likely the large scale event late Monday 15-early Tuesday 16. Think it's best to smooth out all the modeling lows and highs and see if this potential is still valid come this Wednesday morning (00/10 cycle). All ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) continue to give us some wintry qpf but just light nuisance amounts. Will revisit this on Tuesday. --- A wintry event has been on and off for our area the period of the 14th-16th (another to follow ~the 18th?). The 00z/7 EPS is driest of the ensembles but at least operationally it has a chance of flurries or a period of snow. The 00z-06z/7 GFS v15 and 16 both have snow and ice possibilities for our subforum, but primary target-duration-amounts unknown. The GEPS also has a decent qpf event coming but it's snow depth change is not enthusiastic about snow. The primary teleconnection indices are not favorable so I cannot be confident of snow NYC-LI but I do think we will see a ~1/4" of freezing-frozen precip into at least a portion of the NYC subforum by Tuesday morning the 16th. (that could be snow-ice combo or just 3" of snow). The primary event is centered on Monday the 15th. Typical late season caveats apply including light precip during the daylight hours (spring forward 1 hour on Sunday 14th to EDT) being almost useless for road impacts except wet road slow downs. Alot of this will depend on strength of the high over Quebec and how cold the boundary layer. This is basically a D8 outlook: So I dont want to encourage diving deep into snow dreams but something wintry is coming. Whether it's only I84 high terrain or more encompassing is tbd. This will probably garner some attention in the coming days. One graphic to demonstrate the emerging low in the Midwest 12z/14 with the confluence zone. (649A/7)
  21. Good Tuesday morning all, Expect a period of snow showers in the nw-ne suburbs toward midday. Elsewhere for NYC/LI & s of I-78, rain or possibly rain/mixed snow showers early this afternoon. No accumulation NYC CP eastward and southward, however 0.1-0.7" possible in a few hilly areas well northwest and north of the city. Essentially harmless, with probably no street hazard, other than what one might expect in a rain shower. This is associated with a strong wave passage. mPing should be somewhat active between 10A-4P. No graphics today with the graphics below from 2/22. 528A/23 -- Today (22): Advisories posted just w and n of I-95 for a 5 hour period of occasionally heavy wet snow, while snow NYC and possibly all of the forum coasts during midday changes to rain. Exception southern Ocean County - which may be all rain. Snowfall rates of 1-1.5"/hour anticipated for portions of NJ will quickly make treated roads slippery for a time. Isolated ~5" possible part of NJ near and north of I78 with a general 2-4" accumulation in the advisory area though 4" possibly less likely in NYS/CT. This band may spawn isolated thunder in NJ/LI as it models convective in nature. Expect the first heavy burst within 1 hour of onset, then a slight relax followed by another heavy burst, then on the wane it's last two hours. Begins NJ/ne PA/se NYS 10A-NOON, NYC/CT Noon-1P,. Ends about 5 hours after onset. . Snow in NYC CP possible until 2P where anticipate anywhere from 0.2 to 1.4" there , dependent on temps/how quick it changes. Even a slight coating possible all of the forum coasts. Tuesday: Combined Tuesday in this thread only because it's a top 8 February and many members even out to eastern LI should see some sort of snow showers for an hour or two (may be more accumulation e LI Tuesday than today). Snow showers possibly mixed with rain on LI. Many locations Tuesday should receive 0.1 to as much as 0.5" new snow by ~1PM... the showery occurrence primarily during midday. Attached the 00z/22 HPC HREF, the 06z/22 NAM anticipated base snowfall and the NWS regional deterministic snowfall graphic.
  22. Friday 525PM: Made this a combined obs-nowcast minor event thread. 509PM: Possibly my last update for the evening. Other than the low levels being a little too warm, it's conceivable that snow will be seen to within about 10 miles of the NJT late tonight with minor (trace to 2") accumulations as previously discussed ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and I84 northward in CT. No new obs thread for this for many reasons, including minor 1-4 hour wintry event, occurring during the night when many will be sleeping and many areas melting as it hits the ground. --- Friday morning 625 AM update: 1201AM-10AM Saturday (27th). Not anticipating an obs thread since the percentage of members involved (seeing snow/sleet) looks to be rather small. Just tag it on here, whatever might occur. A 1-4 hour period of showery wet snow-sleet will probably occur across the I-84 corridor early Saturday inclusive of nw NJ, ne PA northeastward. There even could be spotty freezing rain? Minor-short duration impact, at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible in the Poconos. Elsewhere for the I84 corridor, inclusive of nw NJ, expect a Trace-3/4"; A quick change to rain occurs shortly after onset, except that change to rain in the Poconos and northwest hills of CT may not occur til ~ 10AM Saturday. Melting all surfaces once the change to rain has occurred. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. ---- 730A/Thursday the 25th: As a friend said yesterday, winter's back is broken. 3AM - 10AM Saturday (27th), a 1-4 hour period of wet snow will probably occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain around or after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. No obs thread, unless modeling shifts a little closer to NYC (within 10 miles). --- Wednesday morning Feb 24 640A update: Updated title to only Saturday morning the 27th, and mainly interior only. Have posted nw suburbs thread since this nuisance negligible event appears focused for only high terrain of an inch or so Saturday morning before a change to rain/melting. Might provide a bit of a minor slippery slushy hazard untreated surfaces before sunrise Saturday nw of I287, i.e. nw NJ hills/ne PA Poconos and interior se NYS toward the Catskills, and possibly Litchfield County, northern Fairfield County CT. Small possibility of an obs thread if snow occurs as some modeling tries to do to within 10 miles of NYC, but for now... not counting on that thread. This one would suffice, if this does minor snow occurs. Probably good to monitor NAM/RGEM cycles for consistent trends-if any. And the GFSv16 too, if you have access thru Pivatol Weather. V16 may be available elsewhere? If so, please share. COD? ---- 543A/23 -Tuesday. Incorporated 00z/23 ensembles and modeling through 06z/23... suggests maintaining some vigilance for a period of Saturday morning snow, probably Trace- as much 4" for the I84 corridor Saturday morning. Multiple modeling has that option. LI/NYC probably rain but may briefly start as wet snow? WPC is trying to keep us dry but i don't think that will work. My concern for a minor snow event are how close to NYC (mainly w of 287?) or possibly a little closer. There will have been a freshening of the cold prior to this pulse of WAA which will be reflected with a small mid Atlantic coastal low. Want to wait this out til the morning of the 24th to be more definitive. Modeling is all over the place and thermal profiles marginal, as so many. No ensemble prob graphic since WPC has little or no qpf (less than 0.10"). --- 628A/22: Despite some dry forecasts, my confidence in another snow event is categorical interior and likely coasts inclusive of LI. Have changed the title to Noon Friday (and extended from 6A Sat to Noon Saturday) and simplified the wording. Most of this should be Friday night-Saturday morning. I expect this to be a hazardous event on all untreated surfaces by sunrise Saturday (interior). Am even a little uneasy on the previous low chance >.25" in the title. For now , I see a 1 to possibly 6" snow event for the forum with highest totals, whatever they are, in the interior high terrain-probably ne PA/extreme nw NJ/se NYS Orange County northward. 00z/22 EC changes to rain everywhere, whereas the GFSV16 is further south and ends briefly as rain midday Saturday. Nice competition between the EC/V6 op runs. GGEM sides with the EC though seems slightly colder than the EC. My initial 20th post concerns for Thursday the 25th, seems to have evaporated due to dominance of high pressure arriving behind the southward proceeding cold front. One other note i should add: NAEFS says EC probably has a better handle than the colder model solutions. I'm not buying the NAEFS warmth for the interior, at least not at this time. This will be a big test of the GFSv16, soon to be implemented as a replacement for the GFS op (V15). --- 627A/21: WPC continues dry but as you probably saw, the 06z/21 GFS V15-16 have turned northeast. This is a complicated situation with other snow/ice options. First, it's not clear to me that something cant happen here late Thursday-Friday (25-26). The Saturday morning (27 option) may force me to adjust the window of opportunity into the 27th. That part is associated with a subtle trailing shortwave moving ENE from the Ohio Valley (WAA) behind the initial primary short wave passage of the 26th. That subtle short wave induces low pressure newd to the Mid Atlantic coast with a possible inverted trough back to the Catskills. What's it mean for NYC? Possibly a period of snow or sleet? with a better chance of snow or sleet inside of I95. Does it change to rain in the interior if it does come north- too early to know. First, I think we need this option to stick, so to speak, and then can venture to discuss this minor or moderate event? Lets give this 24 hour more of cycles and then try to isolate the wintry problem, if it still exists Monday morning, --- 301P/20: While 12z/20 GEFS guidance was delayed for full review (and therefore NAEFS), there is potential for a light or even moderate fast moving (east or east northeast) precip event. Depends in part whether the primary low crosses the St Lawrence Valley, or whether the front sags south of the forum with a wave of low pressure scooting eastward on it, as a fairly strong wave heads east from the Great Lakes. Ensembles at this writing are not favorable for much of an event but individual models for the past 2 days have proposed an advisory snow either in our forum, or south of us, across the Virginias/Delmarva. The latest 18z/20 WPC guidance basically has no qpf in our forum for this event, so it could easily be a bust. I think some wintry precip will happen here, but could be 100% wrong. Let's leave the door open for a couple of days and see if this can target a portion of our area with an inch or more of snow. If snow does occur but only I84 corridor, then there won't be an obs thread (fewer members). TBD. .
  23. 515A/19: Intermittent event continues and precip intensification gradually changes freezing rain/freezing drizzle sleet near I95 eastward to snow. Ending time still the same, this afternoon sometime ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and the remainder sometime this evening-early tonight. Between 7AM-ending time, I expect a general base 1/2" new throughout the forum after 7am with possibly as much as 3" , the heaviest seeming to be near NYC into CT per a decent band developing this morning-midday, and possibly a nice hour of closing snow this evening. Easy melting process on pavement expected during the midday-afternoon hours where temps above 25F and when snow lessens it's intensity. Manageable but fun for us. 450AM/18: overall no change in expectations. Might get started an hour or so slower but already flurries or steady light snow have occurred se NYS, ne PA, CT, far nw NJ. See latest NWS products and your own judgement. 548AM added the 4AM NWS regional snowfall expectation that went into their early morning products. An overall manageable 24-36 hour wintry precipitation episode will probably see snow change to a mixed bag in NJ/LI, with even a bit of rain possible for a time eastern LI and the NJ coast. Snow should begin in seNYS/NJ/NYC between 2AM and 7AM Thursday and by 9AM elsewhere. It should snow moderately for a time sometime between 9AM and 4PM Thursday before probably transitioning to mixed precipitation or even quitting for a time in NJ/LI toward Thursday evening. Precipitation may intensify again as it probably changes back to snow everywhere on Friday and then gradually ends from west to east during the afternoon, or early Friday night. Graphics are the 21z/17 NWS ensemble 48 hour prob for 8"+ of snow, 4"+, the 12z/17 SPC HREF snowfall ending 00z/19 = 7PM Thursday, the 5PM/17 actual NWS regional deterministic (approximate) snowfall forecast and the 21z/17 WPC ensemble prob of .01" freezing rain. Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Please contribute as needed.
  24. West siders are basically guaranteed to get this one at this point. It's currently trending colder valley wide. As with any winter storm here, bust potential abounds, especially eastern valley areas. All modeling currently shows ice, snow or some combination of the two from Arkansas to SWVA. Let's reel it in!
  25. Real time Conditions and observations from around the Midsouth, Middle Tn, and North Ms, as this potentially historic system moves into the forum. 14 and light snow in bolivar right now. Gusty winds at times as well(10-15). Good luck to everyone today and stay safe!
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