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Please follow NWS statements on the potential for SVR midday Friday. Otherwise, scattered showers develop near midnight becoming bands of briefly moderate to heavy showers during the daylight hours, ending from west to east by around nightfall Friday. Rainfall generally in the 0.4-1.5" range;. Iso 2.5" possible. Gusty surface winds to ~40 MPH BUT please follow NWS SPC on the marginal potential for an embedded SVR storm, even Tornado, due to the strong wind fields aloft and marginal instability for connecting to the surface. This latter SPC threat is the primary reason for beginning this OBS-NOWCAST thread. EDIT: 444PM/11: Guidance seems to be ramping up surface gusts I95 eastward midday Fri...gusts 50 MPH. The above is part ONE. (edit 626P/12 Will post CoCoRaHs data as best I can around 8A Saturday) Part TWO is Saturday--- a 6 hour period of colder notable showers. Edit 444PM: Modeling (some) is trying to focus energy (CAPE etc) for a thunderstorm vcnty NYC. If that happens, hail would also be possible. [EDIT 626P/12 Part Two is on for Saturday midday-afternoon. HRRR has a 'chance' of thunder north of NYC... but its modeled guidance suggest T might occur down to NYC. Slight snow acc Poconos midday Saturday.] Part Three is late Sunday-Monday with potential for general light precip with embedded moderate, and even some minor wet snow accumulations highest terrain northwest of I84. Let's focus on Part ONE when it arrives Friday, and we'll get to separate OBS threads, if needed, for parts Two and Three, if that is okay with everyone and if needed.
"Fate often spares an undoomed man, if his courage is good." --Beowulf, Book VIII, lines 572-3. Models seem set on a Gulf low with a banana High. The beginning of the storm over TX is in NAM range (stronger and further south with the High).Can we get the mid levels to wobble in just the right way? The WPC gives us all we could ask for at the surface at Day 4 in December, whatever ends up happening: EDIT to add in the end of the KMRX discussion this AM: "At this range some of the details are unclear, but it does look as if the potential for wintry precipitation Friday night and through much of the weekend is possible/probable. Details on ptype timing/transition and precipitation totals will become more clear over the upcoming days as this system is still over the Pacific and not being observed in the RAOB network at this time."