Search the Community

Showing results for tags 'SNOW'.



More search options

  • Search By Tags

    Type tags separated by commas.
  • Search By Author

Content Type


Blogs

  • The Company Blog
  • Tropospheric Torrent
  • wxbrad's Blog
  • thunderman's Blog
  • Quincy's Blog
  • Ellinwood's Weather Blog
  • Once a legend always a legend
  • Weathertalkblog
  • everyhinks
  • Windy Fashion
  • Save up to 50%
  • Snowfall Updates and Forecasts 2019-2020 and beyond!
  • Dry vs. Wet Halloween Weather
  • Next Winter Storm in the North Plains and Great Lakes
  • More Snow in the Northern United States
  • Winter Precipitation in the Southern Rockies vs Dry conditions in the Eastern States
  • Heavy showers in the southern to central plains moving towards the northeast on Tuesday with mild weather conditions in the northeast early this week

Forums

  • Board Headquarters
  • Tropical Weather Discussion
    • Tropical Headquarters
  • General Forecasting and Discussion
    • Weather Forecasting and Discussion
    • Climate Change
    • Outdoor and Weather Photography
    • Weather Marketplace
    • Meteorology 101
    • Blogs
  • Regional Weather Discussion
    • New England
    • Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
    • New York City Metro
    • Philadelphia Region
    • Mid Atlantic
    • Southeastern States
    • Tennessee Valley
    • Lakes/Ohio Valley
    • Central/Western States

Categories

  • General Analyses & Forecasts
    • Seasonal Forecasts
    • Winter Analysis
    • Tropical Analysis
    • Severe Weather
  • Miscellaneous

Product Groups

  • Upgrade Packages
    • Individual Packages

Find results in...

Find results that contain...


Date Created

  • Start

    End


Last Updated

  • Start

    End


Filter by number of...

Joined

  • Start

    End


Group


AIM


Website URL


Yahoo


Skype


Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)


Location:


Interests


Home Location

Found 139 results

  1. December is about to begin. Let's see how all of this verifies.... CFS2 for next six months...December has progressively been warmer on the CFS2 while the trend for January is cooler. In other words, as the model updates it seems December is getting warmer on the CFS2 and January is cooling off. Here is the NAO outlook. Not great. Here is the PNA outlook. Would seem to hint at a developing western ridge, eastern trough towards mid-December. That rarely works out for us in the TN Valley, but certainly did last January. Here is the AO outlook. Would appear some cold will be in North America for troughs to draw from when plunging southward. Here is the Nov 24 ENSO summary from CPC. Here is the probability of an El Nino from the aformentioned report. Looks like CPC is leaning towards a Nino. Could it be that our winter is weighted towards mid-late winter? That would correspond with the developing Nino. Is it possible the atmosphere will lag in response and respond during the mid-late winter time frame? Here is the multi-model(correct term?) prediction for the ENSO this winter. This index certainly points to a cold snowy, winter in the East. A weak Nino is perfect. Will this index be the "golden ticket" or the source of grumbling? Time will tell. Here is the CFS2 prediction for the ENSO this winter. This is where my concern is rooted, but it is an outlier. However, even as an outlier, the mid-range models do lend some support to it or I would throw it out. CPC felt the need to include it in their update. That said, it can be a very squirrelly model. In this image, the CFS2 seems to hint at why it is warmer. It has a stronger Nino in place. Summary: Well, this will give us a baseline to work from as the winter progress. It might also help to determine over time what drives sensible weather. I should also add that November has been incredibly cold. October and September were not. October was slightly above normal and September much above at KTRI. In general, Fall climo will be cooler than normal due to an anomalous November. A weak El Nino in the right place in the Pacific basin could mean the TN Valley is in business. We will see what that impact is. Is the CFS2 on to something or is it off on its own? Will the warmish Euro weeklies be correct as they almost always are? Many Nino winters have been spectacular here in the valley, some have not. As stated earlier, I think that the temps for Dec-Feb will be slightly above. Snow near normal for the season - which I count as first snow to the last snow regardless of the month.
  2. This focuses on the DC/Balt corridor but Winchester will probably see feet during said event as well.
  3. Here is our new thread. The other was at 45 pages and needs some decluttering. Here's to the rest of the 0z suite and an insane Euro run.
  4. Here we go. Thought we would actually have a thread here because of what is going on with the other events but the long term pattern is looking good so there will be more threats after this one to discuss in the LR thread. This is down to almost d4 on the leads. 12z GFS puts .4 QPF for some in CMD, but Euro from 0z last night delivered a good h5 vort track, cold temps (upper 20's, low 30's) as well as heavy QPF. Tune in for more in a little bit.
  5. Here is our new thread. The other was at 45 pages and needs some decluttering. Here's to the rest of the 0z suite and an insane Euro run.
  6. Figured I would start a thread and try to bring some good juju. My forecast went from partly cloudy to a 70 percent chance of snow! Most models show a rapidly deepening low close enough to give us some good snow!
  7. Well, it's within 72 hours of beginning and modeling is looking more and more robust for potential snow somewhere in the Great Valley region. Right now 40 North and Plateau west look to be in the sweet spot with several runs in a row of the GFS really hammering those areas into Southern Kentucky. As of now, all major models are on board with the storm and are showing a near perfect track for widespread snow across our region. The main issue, as always, will be warm nosing causing boundary temp issues. This looks especially likely for the Eastern Valley, from Chattanooga to Knoxville. If the boundary temps work out, this looks like it could be a nice one. It's also somewhat shown that the new GFS has the same NW trend that the old GFS exhibited. Here are some clown maps from tonights runs. 00z GFS Through 90 hours on top, then the GGEM that Jags already posted in the pattern thread.
  8. Here is a snowfall map that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included. Light rain developed during the morning hours on November 26th and mixed with some sleet inland. Wet snow initially confined to the far northwestern corner of the state. As steadier precipitation moved in, a slight southeast shift of the snow/sleet line was observed with some modest evaporational cooling. However, much of coastal and southeastern Connecticut stayed predominantly rain. The main reason for the mixed precipitation and sleet was a warm layer in the atmosphere around 700mb. As precipitation became heavy, sleet fell across much of central Connecticut. Wet snow continued across northwestern Connecticut and rain moved as far northwest as Meriden and Hartford with some warming aloft nudging into the valleys. Even in those areas, the 2-meter temperature hovered around 34 degrees for much of the event, which did not allow for significant amounts of snow to accumulate. Precipitation tapered off to scattered snow showers by early evening. As cooler air gradually funneled in, a light additional accumulation of snow was reported in many areas. A few broken, but locally enhanced bands of snow continued into the early morning hours on the 27th. The greatest snowfall totals were in the range of 6 to 10 inches across northwestern Connecticut. Totals dropped off fairly quickly to the south and east. A narrow area of 3 to 6 inches was observed near and just northwest of I-84. Just southeast of there, 1 to 3 inches was reported and the southeastern third of the state generally saw less than one inch of snow. Where the snow did accumulate, it had a very high water content, especially those areas that battled between a mixture of snow, sleet and rain.
  9. Here is a snowfall map that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included. Light rain, with light snow across the higher elevations, developed across Connecticut during the evening hours of November 13th. The steadiest and heaviest snow fell around midnight and tapered off during the pre-dawn hours on November 14th. Most locations eventually changed to snow, with the exception being the immediate shoreline and urban coastal corridor from New Haven down toward the New York border. On average, the hills saw anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of snow, with generally an inch or less across the valleys and shoreline. The highest amounts around and just over 3 inches were reported in Litchfield County.
  10. Actually, this is more of a test image. Just checking out the system, timing, ease of use, etc.

    © Stormitecture, Jason Foster

  11. While still being a day 5ish event, it is not to early to start looking at some of the possible implications of various models. At this juncture, we generally have the GFS and the Euro book-ending a possibilities window that includes a cutter to Chicago and a more suppressed system that goes East of Hatteras For the most part been consistently left of the GFS ... with its ensembles a tad to the right of the operational Euro (but no where near the GFS). The 12z GFS Ensembles cut the difference with somewhat of a middle ground ... bringing the primary low into Ohio, with a coastal transfer. Depending on the amount of moisture return that is achieved in the warm sector, the operational GFS could be a notable severe weather event. And would keep QPF amounts across the DC/NOVA area on the light side with little possibilities for winter weather. The transfer with this solution simply happens too late to provide the lift for precipitation and wraparound of cold air. Then we have the Euro with it's more southern solution. It would mean a smaller spatial window for severe weather possibilities and a better chance for wintry weather for the area (especially west ... like we saw with the early March event). Given the time range and the placement of the the ensembles in the middle of the operationals I would expect to see some compromise towards the middle in terms of track over the next 1-3 days ... rather than an extreme on either side verifying. If I had to pick a solution verbatim from this mornings 12z suite for the heck of it, it would be the GEFS.
  12. Ian

    Yup

    From the album: Stuff

    © Ian Livingston