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  1. I figured I might as well fire up the thread just in time for the 12z Euro! Get your chainsaws ready, and let’s see what the first real track of winter brings us!
  2. This may be the first of 3 storms this week (14-19) with northeast wind in the NYC forum and a strongly -NAO with blocking in progress, that could dump up to a foot of snow, (in total) on parts of the forum by midnight Saturday. Uncertainty exists, especially intensity of the storm and associated upper air pattern, as well as it's track. This one so far with uncertainty on the r/s line and qpf amounts but potential exists for several inches of wet snow on the northern fringe of this late developing but weak nor'easter as it passes to our south. It may finally bring NYC it's first minor measurable amount of wet snow (twas a close call on Dec 5th at CP). Tides are astronomically high so that there is a small chance of minor flooding in a few spots at the time of high tide both Monday and Tuesday morning's. Since most of the snowfall (or of any snowfall) should be during the daylight hours Monday in our area, pavements will tend to be wet where it snows except the hilly areas west through northeast of NYC, if it occurs there and comes downs hard enough. This is probably a day, to get snow stakes into the as yet unfrozen ground, and prep your snow blower-thrower for possible use Wednesday. By the time Monday afternoon rolls around we should pretty much know whether this will be a week of substantial snowfall for parts of the NYC forum.
  3. This posts due to forum interest in wintry weather, but with uncertainty on evolution of precipitation events and how far south ice or snow can develop (even a low chance NYC). Marginal thermal profiles may limit snow or ice to I84 northward but may be worth monitoring for a minor or moderate wintry weather event I84. The NAEFS pattern along with various models, though cyclically inconsistent, suggest the possibility that the latter part of the Mondays(14th) precipitation could be a little ice or even end as snow along the I84 corridor. A wintry event possibility. Evolution thereafter is uncertain but it appears there will be some sort of decent storm system heading into the northeast USA which has a chance to involve snow-ice, at least along the I84 corridor. It's possible short wave interactions will force a northward buckle of the thicknesses and result in all rain but for now, I think there is enough model guidance to open the door for some wintry weather, mainly I84, sometime between 16th-18th. Confidence for one or two precipitation events in that 5 day period is above average, and a good sign is the constancy of a decently strong upper level jet just to our south (LF quad= exit region), frequently with the jet core near VA. Normal High Low at CP next week is ~43-32. Added two graphics: the WPC midday Tuesday (8th) chance of of more than 1/4" frozen water equivalent Monday the 14th. and the CPC D6-10 outlook for the 14th-18th. As we draw closer, it may be that we'll delete some of this and refocus the topic title- for now, this should hold us. Let's see if we can get a little winter in our area next week.
  4. I figured since meteorological winter was just around the corner I'd go ahead and get the new observations topic ready. Let the season begin!
  5. Virtually all current disco pertains to January at this point, so it's time to fire up the January pattern thread. The Euro weeklies say the potential is there. The cold Nov/cold January is a pretty consistent match. So game on as we move into the heart of winter in the valley. Which I consider our prime winter frame to be Jan 15th-Feb 15th. Our coldest temps and most snow will usually fall in that window. Let's hope the pattern gets right as we head towards prime time.
  6. Have fun, time to see if I keep batting 1.000
  7. See obs in the storm thread, so we need an obs thread. Snow has fallen in various parts of the forum today, especially Western areas. Hopefully the 12z models are at the correct solution and this is a thread and obs archive I'm reading during hot summer days. Currently imby 38 degrees, dp 31.
  8. Hi everyone. Newbie here. I follow this site all the time and truly appreciate all of you. I have learned a lot! With winter approaching, this popped up in my newsfeed today and I thought I'd share as it brought back so many memories. I was home, lucky to have a dad who knew how to keep a roaring fireplace going and a mom who kept us fed, even without power. Here's to a snowy winter with no ice storms! Enjoy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yce4jhttrTY&feature=share
  9. First storm tracking of the season. Let’s hope we all get some snow out of this.
  10. Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.
  11. Wow

    Icy trash can

    From the album: Jan 25 Icy Weather

  12. Wow

    Car Ice

    From the album: Jan 25 Icy Weather

  13. Wow

    Car Ice/Sleet

    From the album: Jan 25 Icy Weather

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