FallsLake

4 hours ago, chris21 said:

Hence why I’m moving to the area to the area around Banner Elk, NC next year. We’ve always loved the area and the climate is far more to my liking. 

My wife inherited a home in Boone. We're starting to remodel it. Couple of weekends back we were up there and took the kids sledding up on Beech Mountain. Had to go through Banner Elk and there was 4-5" of snow on the ground. Once we got up to Beech it was close to 10". Winds were gusting over 30 mph and the temp was 17. True blizzard. Elevation really makes a difference. 

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Yep, that low is giving us unusually cool temps and blocking the warmth to our west. May can be a funny month; it can be cool/cold or summer hot. I prefer the cool/cold for right now. As we all know, summer hot will take over for good in the upcoming weeks.  

18 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Possible high tomorrow in Portland, OR of 110.  And I’m dying when it’s 93 here.

Yeah the northwest is a crazy place (talking weather). For places like Portland and Seattle 90% of the summer doesn't require AC; but when you do need it, you really need it.  

1 hour ago, Avdave said:

I was just going to say the same thing, that was a good storm here near RDU. 

That was a fun storm for everybody north and west of Raleigh. I remember sweating the transition line as it wavered back and forth in southern Wake county. Hopefully this next storm trends just a little colder putting more in play. Many model runs from now to "go time". 

3 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

Early December might have some potential. 
 

 

Yeah, the PNA is crucial for us. It looks to go positive in the LR. Hopefully we can get it to stay positive for an extended period. 

The pattern is totally opposite of where we want to be. NAO and AO is positive, and PNA is negative. I'm with you guys in preferring to see this pattern now and not in four or six weeks. I'm in the mindset that what goes up must eventually come down (indices wise).   

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

No more heat in sight!

The humidity will come up early next week, but yeah the real bad heat seems to stay away. We'll have to wait about a week to see if the next cold front can make its way through. I for one am tired of the heat/humidity.   

I'll be staying in a cabin at Cherokee NC the last week of this month. ^^Elevation is ~ 2,200' so it's not going to be exactly refreshing. But I'll have a cool river to play in and I can get in the car and drive to 6,000 feet within 30 minutes(..or so).  

On 7/1/2020 at 8:14 PM, mackerel_sky said:

I hope y’all get the snowiest winter ever! Y’all deserve it ! DBQ only averages 37” of snow a year, last year sucked for them! Here’s to a raging Nina! 

Hey Mack, You know the upstate will now get an epic two footer this winter. 

17 hours ago, jburns said:

I did 2 years in Germany. I was a bit further north near Frankfurt. Except a lot of gray foggy days but very little in the way of snow. Cool summers though.

I did two years as well (Bitburg AB - near Luxembourg boarder). Saw one good snow, and then afterwards the storms reminded me of NC winter storms; all mixed bag events. But as you stated, the cool summers were very nice. Our barracks didn't have AC and there were only a few days a years were it got really hot.  

Happy Easter Everybody!

Looking ahead into next week, we could see another chance of frost and a day that stays in the 40s. We all know the days of heat and humidity are getting closer. Cherish any cool/cold weather we can get now.

<from RAH>

High temps on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 60s north to the mid 70s south, with lows on Wednesday morning in the 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Wednesday, which will be greatly affected by the precip and may not occur until very late in the day are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s, with perhaps a few upper 50s across southern portions of the area. However, we could see temps remain/drop in the 40s across a good portion of the day across the Piedmont and northern and central Coastal Plain. Wednesday night through Saturday: Cool high pressure will build into and across the area Wednesday night through Friday. This will result in cool temps for mid April, with below normal temps through Friday morning. Expect high temps on Thursday in the lower to mid 60s. High temps on Friday should rebound to near normal, as the surface high shifts to the east and a warming return flow returns. Thus expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Morning low are expected to range from 35-40 on Thursday morning and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Friday morning. Thus, we may have the potential for some frost again across portions of the area late week.

RAH is staying cautious, but mentioning the possibility of some light snow (especially for folks down east):

Temperatures should remain nearly stationary on Thursday with only a few degrees of warming possible thanks to the presence of plentiful clouds and consistent CAA downsloping surface flow. Strong 1045mb Canadian surface high pressure will continue to settle southeast, helping to drive a secondary surge of cooler and drier air into central NC during the late afternoon and evening hours. This continues to occur in conjunction with a re-resurgence of mid to upper-level moisture in response to a developing coastal low out ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave. The 00z ECMWF and its ensemble members, which have tended to remain the less excited solutions of its sister models in past runs, have come into better agreement with the run to run consistent GFS/GEFS and CMC. Now, just about all synoptic models at least hint at the possibility for a few snow flakes at the back edge of the system. With the 00z suite, models have trended to show a stronger and geographically closer coastal cyclone development Thursday evening at the leading edge of the mid-level trough, allowing for a greater draw of Atlantic moisture inland while also increasing the cold air entrainment processes into central NC from the NW. As a result, the chances of some low to no impact snow flurries have increased a bit, ironically mainly in the non-climatologically favored areas along and east of the interstate 95 corridor. Even with the most recent increase in snow flurry possibilities, several limiting factors will need to be overcome to see even trace accumulations at the surface. This includes and is not limited to (1.) Overcoming above freezing surface/near surface temperatures; and (2.) Overcoming the dry air in place at the surface. As of now, even the cooler modele`s wet bulb temperatures remain above freezing across our forecast zones which increases our confidence in little to no accumulations likely. Still, can`t rule out some flakes able to fall through the mid-level dry layer to the surface, primarily during the 21z Thursday through 03z Friday time frame where moisture and cold air should meet up briefly. After 03z Friday, low and mid- level drying should become too much for the weakening upper-level saturation in the favored ice crystal growth zone to overcome as we progress further into the overnight hours. For now, have mentioned a few locations of no-accumulation -RA and/or -SN in the weather grids across the northeastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain during said time- frame to account for the threat.  

Can anybody tell where the euro thinks the snow cover will be?

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

At this point, I almost don't even want a March novelty, nighttime, precipitation rate-dependent, grass-only, isolated, gone in 4 hours event to ruin the streak and give some credence to there having actually been a winter this year. Go big or go home, we're going for a full-season blanking on measurable snow! Gotta set the bar at the bottom so we won't be surprised when it happens again....

I hear you. Part of my criteria for a good winter storm is how it affects the roads (or power lines). Years back we had a <1" (mid-day) event that stuck right to the roads and caused havoc. I consider that a great event. Other times we received >3" but it never stuck to the roads (forgettable).  

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With the way this season is going, I'd take that event and cash out today. I do not think we will see measurable snow in Raleigh. Good find though as I've been here for the same timeframe, 30 years.

Yep, it will be interesting (in a bad way) to see if we get blanked. 

**only thing I keep thinking about is with a warm winter, do we flip to a cold spring. If so, we could score an overnight event in March that at least gives an accumulating event.   

3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

When I was living in Roxboro. From 1999-2014.

I don't really recall any year where nothing fell. 

We had good years and bad years. But I don't recall any thing like this year. 

Yeah this is terrible. What gets me is the PNA, AO, and NAO have all been bad. AO might get to record positive readings for the winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

I guess we can be happy for the folks out west. Plenty of mountain snows to give them good runoff during the growing season. Cheap produce for us this summer... 

Just waiting to see if this ends up being the worst winter ever for my location (for the past 30 years). So far this year I've only seen some light sleet with a few slushy snow flakes (no accumulation). 2012 is number one (worse year) right now. This was the only event:

52 minutes ago, eyewall said:

At this point I am starting to look to severe weather threats to chase. I have embraced the suck and it will be a long wait to see snow until next year.

What do you think about a cold spring? Which could add to the severe chances. 

Ended up getting about an hour and a half of sleet and rain (just rain now). There was a period where it tried to switch to snow. Lots of slush snow flakes. So I'm just glade to see some wintery precip. this winter.  

Got down to 21 on my 6' (off the ground) thermometer. 19 on the 1' (ground level). We haven't had any snow but this is winter weather.  

On 1/19/2020 at 1:00 AM, Tarheel17 said:

At this point I'm looking forward to my upcoming trip to Singapore for a few months.

At least when I am baking in the tropical heat and humidity, it'll meet my expectations.

Why spend the money, in a few months we'll all be baking in the tropical heat and humidity here. 

1 hour ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

This is just...sad. I figured I’d at least get a flake this year. Crazy things can happen but, oof.

It's not over yet. We've been lucky and have had at least one good storm the last few years. Not looking good right now but we still have time for things to change. Maybe mid February into the first week of March we'll get that storm.   

6 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said:

January is our snowiest month in Korea and still nothing to date or nothing showing up on the models for next 10 days. 

You need to be posting this at koreawx.com/banter.           

15 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I posted this on the MA forum, but I went and looked at the latest GFS 14 day interconnections

 

EPO: strongly positive (of course..)

PNA: Goes positive (bonus)

NAO: dips negative around the 26th (surprising I know... Now it needs to stick)

AO: dips slightly negative around the 29th

 

Get the EPO to tank and we will be in good standing with an almost ideal set up

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

So@mackerel_sky there is a glimmer of hope

 

Nice thing is we don't have to be perfect this time of year. But I've always said (and I think everybody agrees) the PNA is crucial for us SE folks. When it goes negative we usually have no chance (even if the EPO is negative). **again usually... 

RAH is also looking at Saturdays potential. But they say it shouldn't amount to much (if anything):

"The high pressure system will be centered over eastern Quebec on Saturday morning and extend southward into the western Carolinas. At the same time, a surface low pressure system will organize across the Missouri Valley on Saturday morning and then lift into northern New England by Sunday morning. High level moisture will spread into central NC Friday night and a developing/lifting warm front will extend an area of light precipitation from the mountains east toward the Piedmont late Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a chance that the developing band of precipitation may start off as some wet snow or mixed rain or snow, mainly across locations near and north of Interstate-85. Still a lot of details to be resolved and the timing of this system has shifted a great deal but at this point it appears that any snow that falls will be associated with the lifting warm front, conversational in nature and short lived."

Dealing with next weeks potential, I like the setup shown on last nights Canadian at day 10: