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Sydney Claridge

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Posts posted by Sydney Claridge

  1. I'm going to get more concerned for a severe storm threat here in the Metroplex if the dewpoints can continue to rise into the 60s.  The southern and eastern sections have already seen this happen, and there is additional storm activity forming to the west as well (between DFW and Abilene, but those storms appear to be elevated and behind the surface front).

  2. 1 hour ago, Bob's Burgers said:

    SPC might have to bring the Slight all the way to Dayton Ohio

    Given that several models show intensification of the low pressure over Illinois and Indiana (eg. GFS, Euro, 0z HRRR), I would definitely agree with that sentiment, if primarily out of concern for damaging straight-line winds (and while not related to SPC criteria, perhaps for non-thunderstorm winds too, especially in IN/OH, in the event of a particularly-strong low).  Some of these models also have lower-60s dew points getting north of the Ohio River, even as far north as the I-70 corridor (Indianapolis-Dayton-Columbus) in some runs.  SPC even hinted at QLCS potential for the Ohio Valley (KY/IN/OH) as well.

    If more destabilization and warmer temperatures/dews (than what models currently show) can get that far north, I would be concerned for a more widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak than what is currently expected.  It appears as if that all comes down to the amount of "junk" precipitation that forms, as less would mean more supercell (and tornado) potential and potentially a greater spatial extent to any potential outbreak.  If things stay "junky," then whatever tornado potential remains might appear confined to MS/AL, but less junk would increase potential in MS/AL plus bring more severe storm action into the TN and OH valleys.

  3. 15 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

    Perhaps I wasn't being sarcastic after all. One of those failure modes came to fruition this evening. There were certainly several tornadoes this afternoon in portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A few of them were significant (EF2+). Was today a 'high risk caliper event'? I'm leaning towards no. I don't fault the 06Z forecaster as their small high risk was placed alright. The 45% tornado late this morning and the continuation of the high risk at 01Z? You've got to be freaking kidding me. There's a rain shield with a few lightning strikes blasting across that 01Z high risk. There aren't even any severe storms in the rain shield! I'm afraid today will add a 'crying wolf' syndrome to some residents in those regions. They sure haven't forgotten April 27, 2011 - but we're coming up on the ten year anniversary. Today's tornado probabilities were identical to those on April 27, 2011. I don't expect every high risk to be a generational outbreak, but I sure do expect more than what we got today. One long-track tornado does not verify a 'high risk'. One EF2+ tornado does not verify a high risk (although I bet we do see at least two from this afternoon's activity). 

    There was definitely a lot of tornado potential today that was (fortunately) not realized. Definitely there were a few strong tornadoes, but the ceiling was a lot higher. If today counts as a bust, then it reminds me a little bit (but for different reasons) of May 20, 2019, which also had a 45% hatched tornado risk, but outside of one or two supercells, was a bust.

    Tornado season is only just starting.  I’m still concerned about the potential for one (or more) significant tornado outbreaks later this spring.

    • Like 3
  4. 13 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

    First tor warning southeast of Dalhart

    Interestingly surface temperatures seem a bit cool in that area, but higher elevations don't need the same temperatures and dewpoints as lower elevations to get the same amount of SBCAPE, either.  Temperatures on the SE side of that storm are in the mid-to-upper 50s, but it seems like 40s are closer to the storm.

  5. 9 hours ago, Indystorm said:

    So far this season a number of parameters are similar to 2011.....slow start to season and low number of tornadoes.....moderate La Nina, cold outbreak in far southern regions.  I am somewhat apprehensive about what this spring may bring.

    That is exactly what worries me about this tornado season.  Once things start to ramp up I am concerned that we will have some dangerous tornado outbreaks.  I highly doubt we will have a tornado season as extreme as 2011, given that 2011 was essentially a “worst-case” scenario, but you can never rule that out, either.

    A more “tame” severe weather event (no severe storm is “tame” though), such as what might happen this upcoming weekend, might help get people into the mindset of severe weather preparedness and away from complacency, before the truly dangerous stuff comes along.

  6. 8 minutes ago, andyhb said:

    This.

    Ignoring what weather weenies like us want in favor of what is simpler for the public to understand is the whole purpose of working with social scientists. I don't see any need to trash this decision until we see actual results from the change.

    I agree.  The public at large needs straightforward messaging that helps them best understand what the hazard(s) are.  The government does not (and should not) expect everyone to understand the technical terminology used in severe weather warnings, watches, or advisories.

    I'm a weather hobbyist who understands some of this terminology, but my formal college education is in the social sciences.  So much focus is on the difference between a watch (be prepared for the hazard) and a warning (take appropriate action).  My understanding is that advisories refer to hazards that are below "severe" criteria (eg. winter, thunderstorm, flood, etc.).  If there is a more effective way to communicate that to the public, then that is what should be done.

  7. 21 hours ago, TexMexWx said:

    With our luck, D4 is also gonna be a dreary rainy/misty/cloudy day.

    In all seriousness, I'm intrigued by the setup. Still some uncertainties, as noted by the SPC in their outlook (cap, degree of surface-based instability, etc.)

    On the Day 3 outlook, SPC removed all mention of severe thunderstorm potential for Sunday.  Seems like those uncertainties might have won out.

    • Sad 1
  8. Aside from a few warnings here and there, this was a complete bust.  There were no severe weather reports at all per SPC (at the time of this post), quite surprising for a day that started out with an Enhanced risk (and a 10% tornado contour), albeit this was later downgraded.

  9. Spring 2020 was interesting, with a particularly intense period in April, but tornadic activity dropped off pretty quickly after that, with a quiet autumn to boot.

    I'm going to assume that 2021 could be an intense season, with a La Niña currently in place.  I know that a transitioning La Niña favors an uptick in tornadic activity in the Southern Plains (Texas-Oklahoma), but that Dixie Alley and the Ohio Valley often see increased activity in cases of a resurgent La Niña (see "US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability" by Lee et al.).  Forecast precipitation anomalies seem to show increased precipitation in the Ohio Valley in particular.

    I'm going to place my bets on an active 2021 season for Dixie Alley and the Ohio Valley.

    • Like 1
  10. 42 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

    Storms off the Texas coast have some rotation already, but it also looks like they might be moving almost due north (heading towards or a little east of the Houston metro). Regardless, they have special marine warnings on them for waterspout threats. 

    There’s quite the temperature divide across the Houston metro this morning, with 50s in the far west suburbs (Katy), with 40s not too much further west, but generally upper 60s over the rest of the metro.  Definitely cannot rule out severe storms in the Houston area until the front passes through (which it should do in the next few hours as the storm system moves NE).

     

    The storm coming ashore at Surfside Beach looks slightly isolated and now has a severe thunderstorm warning with “tornado possible” wording indicated.

  11. 58 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

    Had a brief tor warning up in Denton. Can't say I saw that coming on a marginal risk day

    We actually had some favorable values (EHI, SigTor, VTP) earlier that showed up on the SPC Mesoanalysis between DFW and the Red River.  Some of those values were pretty high (there were VTPs exceeding 9, for instance) before the storms came through, so I’m not surprised at all that there were a few tornado-warned storms.

  12. 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

    unfortunately, eating healthy and having enough time to exercise is a privilege in this country, thanks largely to capitalism. helps explain why people of color have suffered the most this year.

    No wonder why COVID has preyed on this country so much.  None of our politicians seem to have the chutzpah to rein in the junk food industry, and the false narrative of "personal choice" (look up "food deserts") continues to be an issue.  As much as I hate to say it, our country was primed for a pandemic that would come in, spread, and take advantage of the large number of people who are overweight or obese.

    Our healthcare system was apparently designed to deal with acute illnesses, and fails miserably at the treatment and prevention of certain chronic illnesses ("pre-existing conditions") that can contribute to severe cases of COVID.  Preventing things like this in the future might require a full-on "War on Obesity," and politicians (and others) will have to make many hard decisions (and challenge the powerful junk-food lobby) should they follow this path.

    • Thanks 1
  13. I'm starting to wonder about those storms west of the Twin Cities.  Not seeing anything too strong with rotation at this time, but they are all isolated storms in a favorable environment.  The severe-warned storm south of Buffalo Lake may be one to watch.  There also appears to be a couple of couplets near West Union (along I-94), but these look to be on the frontal boundary itself.

  14. 1 hour ago, yoda said:

    First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June?  Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk 

    ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2

    I've noticed that SPC has included hatching on 15% wind risks, starting earlier this year, when there is potential for a major damaging wind event but there is a degree of uncertainty as to whether said threat will actually materialize (such as capping, etc.).

    • Like 1
  15. 5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

    Surprise Ohio TOR

    
    The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a
    
    * Tornado Warning for...
      Southeastern Knox County in north central Ohio...
    
    * Until 645 PM EDT.
    
    * At 611 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
      was located near Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 25 mph.
    
      HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.
    
      SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
    
      IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
               shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
               Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
               damage is likely.
    

    There is also a severe-warned storm behind this one (Marion, OH area).  Would not be surprised if that one could clip the northeastern portions of the Columbus area only if that storm takes a right-turn.

    Ingredients for tornadoes are much better in northern Illinois per SPC mesoanalysis.  Watch those storms west of Rochelle and Rockford as they move east, could be a concern as they approach Chicagoland.

  16. 5 minutes ago, Arishtat said:

    Just curious, you mean the one north, or the one south of town? Still trying to learn to read radar. 

    Even though the one to the south is the tornado producer, that storm to the north of Streator (near Ottawa) still bears watching as it is moving straight for the Chicago metro area.

  17. Aside from the risk for hail, tornadoes, and wind, I am getting very concerned about flooding potential near and west of Bowie, TX.  These storms have stalled over this area for quite some time, with heavy precipitation, and they may only now be starting to increase their forward motion.  There are also other storms behind this complex as well.

    The big question is whether this complex will take a right turn and impact the northern areas of the Metroplex.

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