Sydney Claridge

1 minute ago, vman722 said:

Just heard a bunch of chasers confirm this on Ryan Hall’s YouTube stream. Motion looks very northerly the last few scans. 

Wow.  We have 4 warning polygons now, with Vernon now included in the newest (northernmost) polygon.

I suspect the more southerly polygons are going to get canceled soon, but the storm motion is very erratic.

The storm motion suggested by the newest tornado warning polygon is concerning, because it suggests that the tornado could try to move towards Vernon:

1 minute ago, radarman said:

fail.  fell apart

Thank goodness.  It feels like DFW dodged a bullet.

Small areas of “popcorn” showers seem to be falling apart around Dublin and Hico, as well.  If any of those had been able to grow into a supercell they might have posed a threat to DFW later.

As for DFW, there's a storm initiation attempt on the Tarrant/Johnson county line, between Mansfield and Burleson.  I wasn't really expecting storms in DFW, but we might need to watch out now if this storm can get going.

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It's really struggling.

"The little storm that could"

 

Thank goodness, because I don’t think anyone wants a damaging hailstorm over the Metroplex.

Looks like we might have some attempts at storm initiation over Denton County, TX.  Nothing guaranteed though.

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool

This makes me wonder if we are looking at a possible derecho tonight.  That’s provided that the MCS can maintain its intensity with severe winds over a 250+ mile distance, of course.

Looks like an area of stronger rotation is coming near Enterprise, MS.

38 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

So, what, 8 simultaneous tor warns in LA right now?

That makes me wonder if our squall line/QLCS could line up tornado warnings along an even-longer stretch of the line.

Although associated with a much stronger storm system, I recall how the squall line/QLCS on October 26, 2010 had almost-continuous tornado warnings across almost the entire north-south extent of Indiana and Ohio as it crossed eastern IN and western OH.  The tornadoes that occurred that day were also embedded within the main squall line/QLCS. 

I do wonder if something similar could happen with our QLCS across Mississippi today (maybe not the entire north-south extent of the state).  10/26/2010 had a 15% hatched tornado risk too (albeit much further north); the high risk was only for wind.  I'm not saying that 10/26/2010 is an analog for today (that was a historic storm that occurred further north); I'm rather referring to the manner in which the tornadoes occurred that day.

20 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I'd say so, looks like the low is trending a bit stronger than expected thus far. I can say anecdotally it's pretty warm and humid for March here even in South Carolina, I imagine closer to the low dews may take a run at 70 this afternoon. It's a pretty significant moisture transport into this thing, PWAT's are around 1.7 at the line currently

What is interesting about this setup, though, is the extent of the dry air in-between your location in South Carolina and the humid airmass in place over the Mississippi Valley.  In conjunction with the strong winds, that air is dry enough to prompt SPC to issue a critical fire area across east TN, east KY, and southern OH.  I know some of this is the result of downsloping winds off the Appalachians, but with such a strong storm system it is interesting that we aren't seeing more moisture transport into this region.

That talk about supercells makes me wonder if any of these showers and thundershowers ahead of the line, mainly in Louisiana, will try to evolve into a supercell?  Even if one did, it would probably got overtaken by the squall line quite quickly (if it happened with the more developed thundershowers closer to the line).

Looks like some rotation west of Peebles, OH.  No tornado warning but it looks better-defined than what is on the tornado-warned storm west of Cincinnati (there’s more helicity in SE Ohio).

The good news for the heart of DFW is the the storms moving into the metro look to be outflow-dominant (outflow within the purple-circled line).

That’s provided that something doesn’t form ahead of the line.

It looked like a pretty strong-looking rotation signature west of Graford just a moment ago (it seems to have weakened slightly on the next scan).

Looks like we got our first tornado warning of the day.  We’ll also need to watch that (blue-circled) storm west of Stephenville too.

2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Agreed, this is quite a look for tomorrow afternoon/evening

The HRRR is definitely bullish, like it almost always is.  That said, this particular run (18z) does get some pretty substantial CAPE and moisture into DFW, interestingly enough.  I would feel concerned about severe thunderstorm potential here if it verified, provided that a storm could take advantage of the ingredients in place.

25 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Looks like DFW has a second round of storms forming.

 

 

For a moment there it looked like that storm around Azle was really trying to intensify, and it looks a bit weaker now.

Looks like DFW has a second round of storms forming.

46 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Yep. It was close, but the pereistent stratuocumulus field since early afternoon has kept surface temps in check.

If anything, per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the cap has strengthened a bit more.

That said, it seems like the radar return intensity over Irving and The Colony has increased slightly.  
 

If any storm cell in Texas is going to try to take a shot at turning severe, that tail end storm over I-35E/I-635 probably has the best shot at doing that.

The storms around DFW seem to be struggling to initiate into stronger cells; a local met with NBC 5 said it was because of the cap.

I've been getting thundershowers on the west side of Fort Worth.  There are other thundershowers (at the time of writing) as far west as Lipan, on what appears to be a frontal boundary along a Saint Jo-Decatur-Weatherford-Stephenville line.  Given the lower dewpoints and high LCLs in that direction, I suspect these are high-based.

Getting freezing rain with some thunderstorm activity at my location in Fort Worth.  We’ve also been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.

This burst of convection looks to make things get ugly earlier than expected.

Those severe thunderstorm warnings are really starting to line up now.  If I’m going to get anything in Fort Worth, the storms to the southwest (Eastland area) are probably the ones to watch.

Hail threat looks to be increasing with the intensity of that core.

8 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

50/30 Hail probs on the Severe Tstorm watch just issued. Something to watch

That supercell east of Perrin looks potent.  I’d definitely keep an eye on any potential rotation as it approaches the higher dew points over and east of the I-35 corridor.