Sydney Claridge

The storm between Springtown and Boyd bears watching as it moves into the DFW metro area. The hail intensity on radar seems to be increasing.

22 minutes ago, largetornado said:

11/17/13 is only event i recall. 3/2/12 was mainly kentucky. 

The High Risk on March 2, 2012 did get into Ohio, with the 15% hatched (and MDT) encompassing the Columbus metro, but the sigtor threat didn't really materialize north of the Ohio River Valley in the state of Ohio. I'm getting flashbacks to that day looking at the model runs and SPC outlook, although SPC currently has the greatest risk for tomorrow outlined northeast of where they had the highest risk on 3/2/12.

It looks like this CIPS analog run is showing 3/2/2012 (3/3/2012 at 0z) as the top analog for tomorrow, interestingly enough.

We have a tornado warning in the Frisco, TX area now. Somewhat broad rotation but it bears close watching; the hail is a huge threat regardless of any tornadic activity, though.

9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

This thing is probably picturesque. Awesome

radar presentation. 

It’s also pretty interesting to see all of this happening near a radar site, too.

The storms over the Kansas City metro also bear watching; the atmosphere there (per SPC Mesoanalysis) also seems primed for potential tornadic activity. Fortunately those storms seem to be behaving themselves (rotation-wise), but I did notice some weak rotation around Shawnee. It’s not really “behaving” though; there’s a hailstorm in the KC metro now.

59 minutes ago, Chinook said:

A few storms developing near Topeka's radar look like they could get going into supercell mode.

Looks like they have. This looks like some serious rotation near Alta Vista, KS:

On 1/28/2024 at 10:28 AM, Powerball said:

At last, the Sun (and possibly 70s) has returned!!!

It’s 75 here in Fort Worth today! Absolutely beautiful.

Seems like we’re expected to see highs in the 70s through Thursday, with rain (and thunderstorms) returning Friday.

Tornado confirmed near Coldspring, TX, per tornado warning text and KHOU livestream.

EDIT: spotter-confirmed.

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think we have landfall 

I agree. The center of the eye looks to be onshore now.

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

In a pretty rugged area. Wonder if it triggered any landslides.

I noticed a Flash Flood Warning for east-central Ventura County, issued at 420 PM PDT, that mentioned rockslides and mudslides along California Route 150. Obviously, Hilary's precipitation alone can do this, but shaking saturated ground could trigger slides when they might not otherwise occur.

15/8/4

The orientation of the coastline in the Sittwe area definitely has me concerned about locally-enhanced storm surge. Mocha's strength and motion, along with the overall orientation of the coastline, are reminding me of Hurricane Ian, although there are great differences in topography (notice the hills and mountains running parallel to the coast).

Those lowlands are in big trouble. I've extremely concerned about any humanitarian crisis that will follow Mocha's landfall.

EDIT: it looks like I'm not too far off with respect to the highlighted area of concern, at least according to this forecast.
 

If at least one of these storms can manage to turn supercellular, I wonder if it could become a concern for the DFW metro?

Might want to extend this thread into the 28th; we have another severe thunderstorm threat on Friday it seems. (cheese007 made the edits while I was posting this)

SPC is mentioning a large hail threat (30% hatched, hence the ENH), along with some tornado potential especially in north TX if storms don't get undercut (currently 5% on the outlook). DFW dodged a bullet yesterday (4/26), so we'll have to see if we can do it again tomorrow (4/28) or if our luck will run out; I know some of the model runs in the run-up to yesterday were showing the activity closer to and over DFW.

I always get a little concerned when there's a localized severe storm threat centered on DFW.

Possible rotation trying to form in the Newark and Rhome areas?  Seems like the Tarrant/Denton county line needs to be watched very closely just in case.

11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Warm front got from VIC to SGR in two hours, I think the tornado warnings so far around Houston have been in cells too far into the cold sector to produce, but warm front is now near I-10 in Harris County, or real tornadoes, not just warned tornadoes, seem possible.

 

The cell near Tomball was 20 miles into the cold sector, but the tornadic signal on TIAH radar was real.

There's a severe-warned storm along the US 59 corridor NE of Victoria and SW of Houston (near Edna) that looks ready to take advantage of the warm sector.

Although (obviously) I expect the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms to be east of DFW, I am starting to wonder about our risk on Monday. We are on the edge of the outlined D4 risk after all, and recent Euro (12z) and GFS (12z; waiting on the 18z) runs suggest the potential for a severe risk around noon; obviously this time frame can change!  While morning severe is unusual, after the December 13th tornadoes I'm a little more alert to things like that.

1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

TDS in Wise county

This is a concerning situation for areas in southern Decatur and south of Decatur.

Oh boy… that’s a concerning looking rotation signature (and possible debris signature?) near the I-20/US-281 interchange.

EDIT: Confirmed/observed tornado.  Hopefully no one is trying to travel on I-20 in SE Palo Pinto and western Parker counties right now.

Also there’s three tornado warnings west of DFW now.  I’m in central Fort Worth and I’m starting to wonder about that southernmost cell possibly becoming a problem at my location later this morning; I’m expecting the Palo Pinto (central) cell to pass to my north.

EDIT: that rotational signature north of Gorman, on the southernmost cell, is looking quite concerning.

EDIT 2: might this be a debris signature on the correlation coefficient? I can’t tell completely, but it wouldn’t surprise me either.

Confirmed tag on tornado warning near Wayne, OK.  Correlation coefficient seems to show a possible debris signature.

I’m a little surprised to see this given the marginal surface conditions (temperatures around 60) in this area.

Decent circulations on tornado-warned storms near Bray, OK, Coleman, TX, and Cross Plains, TX at this early hour.  If the storm around Cross Plains holds together it could become a problem for DFW a few hours from now; I’m also keeping an eye on a (non-warned) storm just north of Eastland, TX. 

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently 

I suspect that's because they operate on Zulu/UTC time, which does not change for the switch from daylight savings time to standard time (or vice-versa).

Sanibel, 130 MPH.

We’ve had some kind of outflow boundary surge across most of Tarrant County now.  I’m starting to think our severe potential just dropped.

That said, it would be a different story if that boundary can come back northwest after this first round of (non-severe) storms.  The boundary is surging southeast right now, so I don’t really foresee it moving back northwest, but I'll be sure to keep an eye on temperatures and dewpoints to see if they start increasing.

2 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Wow.  We have 4 warning polygons now, with Vernon now included in the newest (northernmost) polygon.

I suspect the more southerly polygons are going to get canceled soon, but the storm motion is very erratic.

 

The tornado seems to be moving due north right now, but we really don’t want to get a right turn that would bring it into Vernon.