HIPPYVALLEY

Didn't see this posted yet, good read. http://thevane.gawker.com/why-nycs-historic-blizzard-didnt-live-up-to-the-hype-1681962448

Yeah, biggest forecast fail I've ever had but still a net gain so gotta' appreciate it and move on.

4", may not make warning criteria here.

I think one of the reasons totals are reduced out here is poor snow growth not just qpf issues. Baking powder, I just shoveled and it's surprisingly heavy.

Yeah, kind of unfair, the radio DJ's are having a field day taking calls from people berating the weathermen. Same reactions on FB.

Why would NWS still be sticking to their guns on totals?

Just getting going. I can't imagine BOX is risking busting badly in their 11pm update for W MA. Obviously riding the stall into the sunset: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 ...A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... MAZ002>004-008>011-026-271215- /O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150128T0600Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER 1109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE CITES AND TOWNS OF CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD AND AYER. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 18 TO 24 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. * TIMING...WHILE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN WHITE-OUT/ BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE-THREATENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. THE HEIGHT OF THE WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED! THIS IS A SERIOUS LIFE- THREATENING STORM! && $$

You are going to see some awesome conditions no matter what happens. Good on you for making a road trip.

I'm not sure what would suck more about having the Euro bust badly, greatly reduced totals from this storm or shattered confidence in the model going forward for the rest of the winter. lol

Lose the stall?

Exactly. You'll have some fun in the snow tomorrow.

I'm not sure people grasp that. I was not even slated for more than -SN until midnight and it looks like what's pivoting in will be at or just ahead of that time frame. We'll see where it goes from there but current obs can sometimes deceive folks from the overall modeled solutions.

Albany looks to be in some decent returns right now while lesser echoes are East of there.

I would say it has started.

Most of the general public wouldn't be. There would be lynch mobs out for the mets. lol

Some of us have remained unperturbed today by the paranoid talk of WNE being screwed etc.

Wow, upping our totals rather than lowering. What East trend? lol

They should be able to handle convective feedback right? Initialization errors?

BOX not buying. They are riding a different horse: OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/ WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. They're map has not updated from this morning but my 4:30 zone forecast is still 18-24"

Relax, you're fine.

Apparently neither are any of the NWS offices. BOX has not updated map but Albany, Upton and GYX all look like updated maps (time sigs) that keep W NE well in the game. I trust their collective ability to interpret models.

LOL, live and die by the Euro out here. it doubles up every other model for snow in W MA.

ncep discussion really rode the Euro.

Can't help but feel once this thing starts cranking the Euro/Nam end up being more right than wrong.