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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yea 310' here in Media just won't cut it lol -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
probably means GFS is going to come back south again tonight watch. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Definitely seeing a model consensus coming together kind of classic really. However I would suspect some ticks and changes about 84-96 hours out one way or the other I bet. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
LOL try 55-70 miles or so for most of us south the turnpike. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
A lot of this south of the Turnpike is most likely not amounting to much other than the grass etc. due to temps, radiational heating, and ground temps. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
I guess this is the weaker wave further south solution lol. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
I will take a stab at it looking at 40f when precip begins and temps falling to 32-34 , warm grounds, sun angle, lower elevations coating to 2" mainly on the grass away from the Delaware River places like Media, Delaware County up along the Blue Route to the Turnpike or so. Elevation will play a role for sure and dynamics. I am not sure though if the storm track and trends are done here think we know for sure in 24 hours or so. -
Yep Lake Tahoe March Winter Incoming!
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yea temps are meh..... the only way we get snow from this in extreme southeast pa is if this storm drops from its 991 mb to 983 mb like it is showing I have my doubts. I mean 7 am in Media rain and 35f then falls to 33f with snow wet snow with warm ground temps between 10 am and 1 pm Tuesday for accumulations just doesn't work. We Track Though! 12z to 0z today will be telling. After the 15th and beyond is where it always has been at but we will not know about those details until at least Tuesday when this storm gets out of here and the next clipper approaches from the Great Lakes and how the STJ either interacts with the NS or not. It is not out of the question it even gets meh out in time with more of a zonal flatter flow with blocking up top it would be just our luck! -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
GFS and Euro timing is off by a lot both are ejecting the energy in the Southwest with different timing. My guestimate say we know later at 12z today and 0z tonight what this will look like in regards to how much of this is rain and how much of this is snow etc. -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Cmc is way further south compared to its last 2 runs, but it is a much weaker wave with zero dynamics boring rain with temps in the upper 30's to lower 40's -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
That's important for tonight, I think. -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Subtle changes if the flow goes progressive ever so slightly east, we get hammered like 70 miles further east think we can manage that 115 hours out? Looks like a low rides to WV transfers east we would like the intial low just a bit more souther. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
You will not get it from the ICON Model Lol. However it is consistently bad. -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Don't forget the increasing sun angle between 10:30 am and 2:30 pm. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
It is on an island by itself unfortunately. Ukie, Euro, CMC, ICON vs. GFS and GEFS AT least we can say there is still a chance! -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
FWIW it looked like the CMC rushes to Syracuse but gets Shunted ESE so maybe it trends tomorrow to GFS and GEFS we shall see. Euro will be telling. -
Take away storm further south, cold air crashing in, temps falling to 32 in SE PA with 9-11" of snow and falling to 34 with 3-6" in Baltimore not a dumpster fire LOL
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
okay lock that up and we didn't see the CMC. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Anyone got a snowfall map for the 0z GFS? CMC? LOL -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
CMC to Syracuse to eastern Long Island Love it LOL! -
UMMM hour 138 GFS anyone umm!! Anyone!
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Yea I should have been more specific I laughed at the 18z GFS and I don't believe at all what it was selling. I do not take many 18z runs "off runs" very seriously. Looks like it went out to lunch!
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Umm March 12th 1993 it was 62f before we got whacked! PHL picked up 13" of now and 4" of sleet with a rainbow at the end. It started snowing at 11 pm at 42f. What we need is dynamics.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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