wasnow215

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

rain mixed with snow  in April

 

And looks like another 3-4” of rain this Wed night into Thursday. 

Ok NOW can we PLEASE change the name of this thread??!!

No one panics when there is no expectation. So no one is panicking except MAYBE will the Commanders ever finish their 30+ year rebuilding project. Lol!

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I said we should all just wait until this weekend to see if we would be tracking something.  Well, here we are.   It's time to call it yall

I absolutely agree. And then that will get the reverse jinx thing going of course! Do it!

5 minutes ago, RVAman said:

GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think?

Yes a tad south from 6z

Let’s see if GFS and Euro can get 40-50 miles more south at 12z

No golf at Pendleton in Ladysmith Saturday haha! Great course!

Nam came a little south 12z. And actually getting closer to its range haha. 

7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 

Long range weeklies have been awful in the winter for the past 6 years. I’m not trying to start a big disco but why is that part of weather science going backwards seemingly?

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

You are right about those 850s though. The way everything else has looked I’m not alarmed yet, but I’m at least pre-alarmed

Remember NAM beat lead time isn’t until at least 24 hours from now. It’s a crap shoot before that. 

Just now, Interstate said:

is TT down for anyone else or is it just me?

Same

31 minutes ago, RVAman said:

That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. 

But Euro does show 1/2 inch qpf falling in like 3 hours overnight. Could be 3-4” with those rates if it plays out like this particular run. 

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Or a hamburger with regular ass bread.   Our parents traumatized us.

Daggone-you must be an unknown cousin or something haha. But I bet they didn’t send you to school w peanut butter and LETTUCE on white! lol!

3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

There is our local map, from pivotal. 

Ty!

Hello Short Pump! Lol

1 hour ago, RVAman said:

If we score a solid 1-2" off of this system I'll it a win for the winter and be satisfied. We are still a few days out, so maybe we'll luck out. Has there ever been a storm that looks like this one that absolutely just booms unexpectedly? RIC? 

Yes, not like this but 12/9/18 definitely overperformed. I’m pretty sure the forecasted snowfall originally was 2 to 4 or 3 to 6.

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS 

 

The last five GFS runs have come south each time

5 minutes ago, RVAman said:

12z models looking mainly more dry and more North. 

Mesoscale models are the only ones out for 12z and as we all know they don’t come in range til 24 hours out. MAYBE! Lol.

Let’s see what GFS/Euro has in store. 

21 minutes ago, snowfan said:

6z euro really nailed short pump.

 

Good good. Now I don’t need to ask haha.

Human nature is funny. I’m not saying it will snow but at least it’s something to track now. I have observed that when it shows all rain or nothing we just don’t say anything or something to the effect of “it figures”.

But when a good model like the European model shows snow and has been off and on for a couple of days, we say it’s not going to happen or won’t be much lol.

Me? I think it keeps trending for Snow in a good way -keep the faith! 2-4” by 9am Sat morning. 

2 hours ago, jaydreb said:

He told us. 

That guy eerily looks like the villain from the recent Netflix series The Tourist. Hope he doesn’t break Phil’s neck! Lol

45 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Yup.  Cautionary tale for putting too much stock in long term models.   

I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. 

13 minutes ago, IronTy said:

The panic thread has been the most accurate of the threads for several years running.  They should really just pin this one and let the LR thread languish because it's pretty useless as far as accurate forecasting goes.   

Then why is it still called the “panic thread”? Shouldn’t it just be called the “Run of the mill-pessimism thread”?

1 hour ago, RVAman said:

6z has digital blue for our area, not a bad look but not a major snow storm by any means.

A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha.

9 hours ago, katabatic said:

I'm not sure a lot of folks should be throwing stones inside their own glass houses. Take a look at the snowfall forecasts from the beginning of winter in our little contest. A lot of people thought (hoped) this would be the yin to make up for 7 years of yang, but barring a late season fluke, it certainly looks like another bust. So we are all in the same swirling eddy of despair - doesn't matter if someone is a "quality poster" or has a colorful tag. The posters who, as you say, are leading the good fight are highlighting models that look good on paper but ground truth is anything but. Folks, the old rules NO LONGER APPLY, rendering these goddamn weeklies that we've been seeing day after day after day after day after day after day completely useless. That is the source of so much angst. We are just too goddamn warm and it is frankly scary how warm it has been for so long. I noticed that it is above freezing on the southern shores of Hudson Bay today. February 10th. Even in our toasty world that's obviously ridiculous but it is happening. Even out here in the Boonies, I had a good start but recently had days of +30 anomalies and its been 3 weeks since the last decent snowfall during prime climo. Looks to change at least IMBY next week - well, kinda - but I think the writing is on the wall (toilet bowl?) for another disappointing season. Soon, the reality will set in that swimming upstream ain't worth the effort. Model chasing is now the posterchild for an exhausting, diminishing return. 

I mean-if the model chasing ain’t worth the effort, wouldn’t super long posts about the same be even less worth the effort?

24 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

still no sign of  winter at  18z

 

JB remains  optimistic though how  can winter  come  back when it  never got  here?

 

 

12z Euro had signs as did ensembles.  Lots of time