Buddy1987

Big juice ball forming on Knoxville TN radar. Really hoping the HRRR is a little too north of guidance. Most other global and hi res look better. Dusting and 28 here.

Ugh.. hrrr right down the gutter on that run. Hopefully it will trend back. 

22z hrrr looks very very healthy with the shield of precip pointing directly at the Mid Atlantic. Can’t ask for much more!

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If we get 5” I might literally sh*t myself lol 

Just now, stormtracker said:

So far, looks like a hold.  Same as 6z

Time for Hi-Res models big dawg! 

Anyone have Canadian at 12z? Been frozen forever on TT

GFS differs with placement of that nice stripe of heavier totals compared to hi res short term. Will be interesting to see who ends up winning that battle. GFS also more of a make everyone happy kind of setup in the other fashion.

6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

How and why would that happen (well, besides it is DC)? Unless the 'low' amps like crazy to draw Atlantic in, I can't see it...

You’re in a primo spot for this. Hoping that band doesn’t shift too far nw away  from just south of you down this way. Kinda been right on the edge.

This is about as much as to what we could’ve hoped and asked for. Keep the trending rocking!

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Extended HRRR

Thanks for posting for us and @jayyy on my phone. Yea that’s freakin solid. 12k Nam looks good as well. @stormtracker Randy coming through on new thread to save us!

57 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

I’ve noticed this as well, it seems like this MET is new to the office. I don’t think this person likes commenting on snow, I noticed this on the last disturbance last week. 

Still probably a little too early for the HRRR but damn does it look great. 

I am shocked by the AFD for Blacksburg waking up. Doesn’t even mention the word snow for Monday night Tuesday time frame only “precipitation”. One of the more odd short term discussions I’ve seen from them. All short term model guidance looks great for good part of the sub forum. That’s ok though every time they don’t honk we end over achieving. Let’s reel in an accumulating snowfall for the first time in a long time!!

NAM trying to hook up southern portion of forum here. Liking how the trajectory is pointed directly toward ROA and CHO minimum 

48 looks even better as that band pivots toward I-81/64/66 really hoping for most to get in on 2-4”

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's amazing it was Euro vs the world and EURO appears to have won.

Do you think if it was Euro with a snowy solution vs the world  it would still win? 

@Ji I’ll let you answer this lol

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yep, 0-2

Too much like 12z GFS. Really hoping GFS trends better coming up here in a couple. Would be nice to get it back in the GGEM type scenario camp. 

Take it how you may folks because it is the Nam but it was setting up to looking very nice end of the run with low pressure initiating inbetween CHS and MYR

Just now, Interstate said:

The top shifted to the west some... which should help us.

Would love for that “finger” to point right at us. Anytime that normally happens in other winters we get hit pretty good. Right now has it going too far north and west into WV.

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I dont know... I am not a big fan at the h5... but that is just me

I could be wrong here too but surface depiction is responding nicely with those changes at 63

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I know the NAM isn't ideal, but so far at 18z it's digging a bit more in the west. That's the trend we need to look for. 

https://ibb.co/jH7WWDc

TPV is more southwest of its 12z position as well which was the other thing more seasoned vets were watching. 

Blacksburg AFD playing it cautious with the 50/50 chance here because of model inconsistency. You all think 0z provides any clarity or probably not until 12z earliest tomorrow?

@BornAgain13 @stormtracker @Ralph Wiggum I can’t disagree with you all. T-minus 1 hour.

What’s everyone gut tell them about 12z Euro? More disappointment or throws us a bone and a middle of the road solution? 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

IMO, Icon, GFS, and GGEM are all solutions that have been in the envelope of the storm for the past 48 hours. Differences are in shortwave details. I don’t see any of them as “moving toward the euro” , at least in isolation. 

I think this is a really solid post. These solutions all bring some type of low pressure up the coast. Just a matter of ironing out the finite details. Just wish for once we could have a no doubt cold smoke blue bomb get us. Been way too long. Could still def happen but seems like there’s a lot of variables that can easily derail those hopes. 

CMC clown maps look great. Let’s hope this actually happens. Would be good for most.

Snow entering SW VA hr 78 on CMC.