beavis1729

1 hour ago, bowtie` said:

Ha! At KPSP when it hit 100 the dew was 36 for a relative humidity of 11% and a heat index of only 95. Too funny.

Vegas was 90/16/84 yesterday, RH 7%. And even that's nothing, especially in June when the heat really kicks in but it's still before monsoon season. 

It's not uncommon to see June afternoons around 100/5/92, RH 3%.  At 3PM on 7/2/2007, it was 110/-7/99, RH 1%...just insanely dry.

22 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Hard freeze here this morning with a low of 26.

 

Impressive late-season cold, especially by recent standards.  It was 30 here.  Some low temps in the LOT area:

ARR 24

RFD 26 (record is 24 in 1988)

DKB 28

FEP 28

DPA 29

On 4/17/2024 at 3:21 PM, mayjawintastawm said:

Nice. Our average snowfall here just south of Denver is only about 20 inches less, but the longevity is 10x shorter. Trees are in full bloom already, probably 2 weeks earlier than typical. Most people have cut their lawns once.

I've never heard of SDDs, I kind of like it! Is that a metric that's used elsewhere?

Yeah, I've seen SDDs mentioned fairly often, but mainly in places where there's a reliable snow cover each year.  I like it because it brings a lot of important variables together (temperature, cloudiness, snowfall, frequency of thaws) and is a great way to capture the overall tenor of a winter.  If one cares about living in a wintry place, it's probably the best/simplest metric to compare winters from one locale to another.  

Simply using snowfall as a winter metric can be very misleading.  I'd much prefer a frontloaded winter with 40" of snow and a -10F temp departure, vs. a winter with 60" of snow and a +5 temp departure. The former would have a lot more SDDs.

Another nice winter in southern Alaska.  Anchorage just had their 2nd snowiest winter on record (132.6").  Average is 77", and the record is 134.5" set in 2011-12.

Even more impressive is the snow depth days (SDDs) and # of days with snow cover.  I'm not sure what those records are for Anchorage, but the 2023-24 numbers through 4/22 have got to be close...and possibly brand new records:

- 3,956 SDDs (the record snow season of 2011-12 had 3,807 SDDs)

- 170 days of 1+" snow cover, including 165 consecutive days

- 169 days of 6+" snow cover...more than 5.5 months!

- 152 days of 12"+ snow cover

- Peak snow depth of 38" on 2/5 (record snow depth is 47" on 1/1/1956)

- Still 9" snow depth on 4/22

Warmer temps are on tap, which should allow for a quick snowmelt.  Normals for April 15th are still fairly chilly (45/30), but high temps will probably soar well into the 50s later this week.  Edit: First 50F of the season on 4/20; the first 50F temp in Anchorage since 10/2/23 (201 days ago).

*Edit: Updated stats through 4/22/24

Not intending to speak for weather will, but there is probably a reverse psychology component to this. I can relate to it, since unfortunately I do it too. In the northern suburbs of Chicago, we have had 9 consecutive bad winters. 2013-14 was good, 2014-15 was decent (can’t call it good since the first half of winter was almost non-existent that season). The 9 since have been bad, using more meaningful metrics like SDDs (as opposed to snowfall totals). If snow melts after a few days, it ruins the ambience and tenor of winter.

After so many years of being let down, one stops getting excited about winter overall (and snowstorms that show up on models) because it has often resulted in being let down. But in March, you feel more open to being excited, since it’s out of the “expected” season so you have less to lose if the threat falls apart. So, I don’t think it’s trolling.

It also bothers me when people talk about climo all the time, and keeping expectations in check. If that were really true, there’s really no use getting excited about winter. There are certain absolute standards for winter. If you live in Miami, 1976-77 was a cold winter relative to normal. Does that mean it should get an A grade? Of course not, since there was never snow on the ground.

Bing Crosby didn’t sing “I’m dreaming of a white Christmas…with the caveat and hope that all of the atmospheric indices line up perfectly.” I just want symmetry in the seasons. If you wake up in the heart of winter, it should be reliably cold with snow on the ground. When I look out the window in July, I know it’s going to feel and look like summer. There are no worries. I think a lot of us just want winter to be more consistent and reliable. It doesn’t mean there haven’t been wintry periods IMBY over the past 9 years…but there is no consistency. In late January 2019, we had two mornings in the -20s with nearly a foot of snow on the ground, but then it was in the 40s two days later. That’s unacceptable. Cold snaps seem to flip quickly, instead of more gradual warm ups on the back end of them.

End of rant - all of this to say that, for people who really love the tenor of winter and like the harmony of seasons in seasons, it has been a very difficult period. The worst part about this winter is that, even in places where I thought winter was always sacred (like 45N and north in the Midwest), it has been horrendous. I had two snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI, and both were canceled. In fact, many areas never opened trails at all! Usually the season is from 12/15 to 3/15. It’s just horrible. Many areas in far northern WI average near 100”, but have only had 20” this season. Parts of MN have had less than 10” for the season. 

Obviously I don’t live in your forum area, but I stop by here often for the quality of discussion (same with TN valley). The lakes/Ohio valley forum seems puritanical, like you’re not allowed to be excited about snow and cold. Just wanted to add some context to the frustration and conversation. I hate to admit it, but it seems like we need to wait for the AMO and PDO to flip, in order to even have a reasonable chance at a decent winter. I realize this is a pessimistic view, but unfortunately it seems like a reasonable approach after 9 consecutive warm/bad years. 

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Prior to yesterday (records going back to 1893), Rockford's record high temp in DJF was 70F on 2/22/2017 and 2/25/2000. 

They hit 73F yesterday, and are already up to 73F at noon CST today.  Two days in a row of all-time record high temps for met winter, going back 130 years.

Make that 77F at Rockford - just ridiculous.  Normal high is 38F.

36 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

74/54. Dews holding steady in the mid 50's. 

Yeah, I thought it would mix out quite a bit more.  It has at Rockford - 77 (!)/40.

84 at STL

Prior to yesterday (records going back to 1893), Rockford's record high temp in DJF was 70F on 2/22/2017 and 2/25/2000. 

They hit 73F yesterday, and are already up to 73F at noon CST today.  Two days in a row of all-time record high temps for met winter, going back 130 years.

All The Climate Changer is doing is shining a light on what a catastrophe this winter has been, and speaking up when everyone else is silent.  He's taking the data angle, and I'm taking the emotional angle (I've been doing the latter for years, but 2023-24 is the last straw).  Either way, it's horrible...and deserves to be hyped and communicated as much as possible.

He's right that the media is basically silent on what is going on this winter.  Shockingly, it's even worse than that, because Joe Public is actually happy to have warm and snowless winters.  If people are thinking this, then journalists aren't doing their job because the facts aren't getting communicated accordingly.

Let's just do what the US does on every environmental issue - just remain silent and complicit.  There's a political/justice-related saying from Plato:  "silence is consent".  And just like bullies do in school, people who have the courage to document and speak out against atrocities are often punished and told to keep quiet. I'm not comparing this winter to various forms of social injustice - just trying to make an analogy for purposes of understanding.

This winter has set a new bar for how bad things can be.  My go-to place in northern WI (Minocqua) has only had 15" of snow this winter, and 124 (!!) SDDs.  They average 100" of snowfall and approximately 1,600 SDDs.  And their DJF temp will probably shatter their old record by 3-5F, with records going back to the early 1900s.  This is an abomination, and doesn't deserve to be minimized.  From both an emotional and data-related standpoint, how can people be ok with this?  Why isn't everyone furious and worried? The shocking thing about Winter 2023-24 is how bad it has been across nearly all of the Lower 48.  Usually, at least some places have winter while others miss out - but this season, it's across the board.

That's what he and I are trying to say - trying to get people to care, and to stop minimizing things.  It's not right for winters to be warm like this.  People can debate the degree of CC vs. natural variability...but, either way, it's just not right.  So, we should say it.  And don't even get me started on UHI - a whole other issue which is extremely concerning.  If you step back and realize how much humans can impact temps in a city environment, it seems so unnatural...yet everyone just accepts it and moves on.  The normal January low at ORD has increased by 4-5F over 40 years - how can that be ok??  We as a society should be doing everything possible to stop this - but no one cares at all.  Gee, I wonder why - everything is "individual freedom" - heaven forbid we pool together and take collective action to solve problems. Individual freedom should be A consideration, not THE consideration. And then when a group of people actually does work very hard and summon up the courage to try to change something, it gets stalled because society/government/policy wonks/corporations/etc. don't want anything to change.  

For people who love winter, it has been hard to suffer through every winter since 2014-15. That's 9 winters in a row.  You can have the other 275 days in the year - what's so wrong with letting people have 90 days of consistent winter?  Most people on this board love winter, yet they act like bullies and put everyone else down when they express their true thoughts.  Why aren't we all in this together?  What's the problem with admitting that you love the season, and that the current situation is horrible? 

It doesn't matter what ENSO and the 5,000 other cyclical indices say; there should be more than 10 "good" days, even in the worst winters.  Not expecting 90 days - but at least 50 or 60.  The good folks in Minocqua and nearly every other place in the Lower 48 are suffering because of this.  No one wants to have a drink at the local watering hole, or get together with friends at a nice restaurant, when there is no snow for skiing, tubing, stargazing, snowshoeing, and other activities.  And a true, deep winter-like White Christmas (not just 1-3" of slop at best) has become a pipe dream, even though it's the shortest days of the year and it should just happen because of the calendar and the mystique around it.  The winter atmosphere is slipping away, and everyone is just staying silent while it happens.  It's catastrophic - so please let people speak up about it without feeling shy about it, and spread the word.  There is no need to rationalize something that is so bad - we just need to admit how horrible it is, and stop being in denial.  It can't and shouldn't be rationalized.

And I'm not saying we'll never have good snowstorms or occasional cold outbreaks again.  But that doesn't really matter either way...because winter is a mindset based on duration and consistency simply due to the calendar, not the ups and downs of individual storms and needing to hope for certain patterns to produce anything resembling true winter cold. In summer, we don't worry about warm temps - they just happen. And that's great, for summer. I'm not opposed to summer and any other seasons - just let them fit into their appropriate place on the calendar.

One thing I do agree on - there should be a separate thread for climate-related info.  But there's no need to jump down people's throats simply because they express genuine concern and frustration.  There could be a kind request to start a new thread - very simple.  In many aspects of life, it's difficult to deal with situations where you feel alone, like you're the only one experiencing something.  One purpose of these forums is to bring people together who have a common interest - so let's get back to that and support each other. It would probably be easier if we knew each other in person, instead of typing keystrokes through a screen.  I just want all of us to have good intentions, and do things for the right reasons.

If you want to take the "not so serious" angle - that's fine too.  For people who love winter, it has just sucked lately - there's no other way around it.  So let us complain and vent; I wish others did the same.  Stop the bickering - nothing to hide.

You’re all measuring “futility” wrong.
 

Instead of total snowfall, try looking at SDDs, or average temperature, or # of days with snow cover, or # of days with the high temperature below freezing.

Those are much more important metrics when determining the grade of a winter. If a 6” snowfall occurs and then melts in a day, it doesn’t really do much. But if a 6” snowfall occurs at the end of November that helps to usher in cold temps and snow cover through the end of December, it makes the winter a lot better. 

On 2/13/2024 at 3:17 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Nothing wrong with liking a big dog in your own backyard. Just like you get tired of me liking winter (as you call it turd polishing) I get tired or your constant contradictions and changing complaints just to constantly act like detroit is the worst place to be in the winter. In our 2008-15 era of record snowfall we had so many really good storms in the 10-12" range, record snow depths, and you carried on that DTW couldnt eclipse a foot. Then when Detroit got a 17" storm you managed to berate the storm for taking too long, saying you like rates. Since then we have had multiple storms with impressive rates, visibility down to 1/8 mile, TSSN, and you just manage to "not remember" them. Its always something. Detroit has had more 6"+ and 8"+ storms than Chicago, and the exact same amount of 10"+ storms. I know this is a shock, but some people can still enjoy a good storm under a foot. And speaking of a foot, Chicago had 4 storms to Detroits 2 of foot+, not 10-4 as you interpreted. lol 10 storms of a foot+ in 20 years, I guess the midwest is Nova Scotia now.

Not sure I follow.  Turd polishing and liking winter are not the same.  In fact, they're complete opposites.  I don't get tired of you liking winter, but you're turd polishing because your standards for winter are very low...which causes you to be happy about very basic/minimum things in winter that shouldn't require much effort.  As an example - if we have a good 5-15 day period in winter, that's not a big deal.  Winter is 90 days, so why would anyone be happy that 5-15 of those days feature consistent winter?  I would be unhappy if 50 days did...so only 5-15 days is horrible.  That's what I mean by turd polishing.

If one likes winter, one should have very high standards.  How can anyone who loves winter be happy with any winter season since 2014-15?  I don't care about comparisons to climo or actual seasonal snowfall totals; there are certain minimum standards that need to be met.  "Tenor of the winter" metrics are the most meaningful...such as SDDs, # of days with frozen lakes, # of wintry days (defined as a day with high temps in the 20s or colder AND 2"+ snow depth), etc.  If we get a 10" snowfall that melts within a week, we shouldn't be happy just because our paltry climo monthly average snowfall is met.  That isn't winter, because there are 20 other days in the month that need to be mostly wintry-feeling too.

A climo winter around here is bad enough.  So, by default, 60-80% of our winters here are horrible for winter lovers.  What's a huge slap in the face about the current winter is that places which should be totally immune from this crap are seeing a bad winter...and that's the last straw.  I get furious enough when we don't have 2 consecutive months of snow cover here at 42.1N...so it's 100x worse when places at 45-49N are dealing with the same thing.  Nothing is sacred anymore. 

Will we ever get to experience a DJF all 3 of these very important "tenor of the winter" things are true, at least 80-90% of the time?  Even I have reasonable standards, since I didn't say 100%.

(1) You wake up and look outside, and it always looks like winter (snow cover)  

(2) You walk outside, and it always feels like winter (temps) 

(3) You don't have to worry about the snow melting (stability)

We can barely get (1) or (2) for any more than a week these days, so there's no chance to ever imagine (3).  But (3) is the most important thing for a winter lover.

Many people on the forum nowadays seem to think that people should be happy with winter simply because it's colder than summer.  Hooray, I guess??  If there are 3 months of summer, there should be 3 months of winter.  Endless days of dry weather with temps in the 30s and 40s is not winter.  Do we ever have endless non-summer days in July/August?  No - when I wake up on August 1st, I don't have to worry about whether it will feel like summer.

I don't know what's worse about this winter - the actual weather, or the fact that people aren't completely furious and throwing things against the wall in frustration.  People on the forum seem to be taking this in stride, which is ridiculous.  I want to see more complaining, not less...because it shows that people actually care.  Everyone is participating in turd polishing this winter, not just Josh.

Bing Crosby didn't say "I'm...dreaming...of a White...Christmas (but only if all of the indices align perfectly, and it's not too early in the season for lake warmth, and then the snow will melt right away if it falls later in the season, and we should be happy with 7 days of winter in a season and we have to hope in coincides with December 25th)." 

And this can't be blamed on ENSO state.  Last year wasn't a strong El Nino, and it was still a horrible winter.  Same for most of the last 8 winters.  It's always something...do we really need all of the stars to align perfectly just to have winter??  If so, what's the ******* point? 

People often misunderstand my views. I want to enjoy all 4 seasons -= they just need to each be 3 months!!  Not much to ask, but it's like pulling teeth to get anything close to that since 2014-15. It drives you crazy.

It may not be much consolation...but everyone in the Lakes/Midwest is having a horrendous winter. 

Some places in MN have had less than 6" for the season, and there's currently no snow cover in the entire states of WI and MN...when this is normally the period of the season with the deepest snow cover.  There are no words to convey how ridiculous this is.  Every day, I feel like yelling and throwing things against the wall - it's just unacceptable. 
 

I had a couple of snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI this season, but both got cancelled (not even due to poor trail conditions, which would be bad enough...but it's completely bare ground). Places in northern WI which average nearly 100" per season have only had 10-15" of snowfall so far, and most of that was in November. They're on track to obliterate the warmest winter on record.

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

This reminds me of 18 years ago.  In mid-February 2006 a fellow from Corpus Christi called the manager of Aroostook State Park, a few miles west from PQI, asking about snowmobiling.  The manager said it was awful in his area but was decent up in the St. John Valley.  (Seven weeks earlier PQI had a 25" dump, with 33" at CAR, their greatest on record.)  Imagine what the guy from south TX thought when told that northern Maine had crummy snow conditions in Feb.

Conditions here in the Maine foothills are fair to poor - snow is there but all the Dec/Jan rain still makes issues at unbridged crossings.  Better in the mountains.

I guess this season is a reminder that, even in the relatively more wintry areas within the lower 48, nothing is ever guaranteed. Would be nice to be able to wake up in winter and know that it will be a wintry day (snow cover and high temps < 32F) simply because the calendar says it’s winter.
 

Just want seasons to be seasons - nothing crazy. We can count on 3 months of summer, but not winter. 

3 hours ago, ariof said:

Oh man tell me about it.

In the early days of the Internet, there was a lot of virtuosity about information sharing. Wikipedia is built on this: what if, instead of a book of encyclopedias or a CD-ROM we had a bunch of people go out and crowd-source knowledge about everything. People get their fiefdoms, there is pretty decent moderation (which somehow hasn't broken like most of the rest of the Internet, at least so far) and a wealth of information has been put at people's fingertips.

Another more personal example is cross country ski trail reports (which are weather-dependent, bringing it back towards this forum). Unlike downhill, there are a lot of community trails which don't have much of a web presence, but with a good forum you can pretty easily crowd-source conditions reports, if a relatively small pool of people participate. There's such a site in the Midwest and not only does it work pretty well, but it has been working well with basically the exact same format for about 25 years. It doesn't have bloat, it doesn't have many features, it's basically a guy running a pretty simple SQL database (and frankly, he should add some features, but if it ain't broke, etc). It hasn't been blown up and updated fifteen times with new features that make it much less useful.

Is there one of these for the Northeast? No. There is an app someone started to try to mobilize and real-time this data (and which has gotten a bit of traction in the Midwest, and has East Coast trails, but not a lot of action), but I'm a member of a Facebook group (well, Facebook just started showing me posts at some point) which is a poor replica. There's no map feature, no search feature, it's just people posting photos of them and sometimes with relevant information (where was it, was it good, etc). It's not very useful, but it's very performative. That's what people seem to want now, not to share useful information, but to show what they did to everyone else whether it's useful or not. Why? Because that's where the money is, and we've been trained by Facebook and IG and Twitter to do this, rather than to share information. As an older millennial digital native 1990s Internet person, it's hard to fathom how much we have, but also how much we could have if the whole thing was not based on how rich some tech bros can get. 

This forum, thank goodness, hasn't fallen completely by the wayside. Imagine if this forum were just people posting photos of snow during storms and that was basically all it was, but without where or how much. And model discussions? People who are actually experts explaining things? That's the power of the Internet. It just doesn't much exist anymore.

An aside, the Midwest winter is really awful this year. Minneapolis has pulled 7" of snow so far, with the highest month, 2.7", in October. Their long-term snowfall climo is similar to Boston but less variable, mean of 47 range from 14 to 98. December was a +12 climo, warmest on record (basically BOS normals), January was only +6 thanks to a weeklong cold snap but had 16 days +10 or more and February is off to a +19 start. It's kind of wild, and not in a good way.

Yeah...and this has sort of gone unnoticed.  I had two snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI this season, and both were cancelled since they haven't been able to open the trails.  The most shocking stat of all is that essentially the entire state of WI has bare ground...on February 6th!  There are no words to describe how ridiculous this is. North of 45N, they typically have 10-25+" on the ground now.  The entire Midwest had a 7-day period of winter this season - that's it.

On 1/25/2024 at 1:58 PM, RCNYILWX said:

Webb has been good this winter so it appears there's hope beyond the upcoming torch. Perhaps what he describes implies the eastern half of the sub being favored, but we'll see how things play out.

I don't understand all the hand wringing about the winter stats. It was expected to be a mild winter in the means. But how things play out can change perceptions.

With a decent chunk of the sub having the solid January stretch and if we can have a solid second half or 2/3 of February and continue that into March, I'd wager that would exceed most expectations for the areas that have benefitted thus far. This isn't a one size fits all take for the subforum of course, but for us at the hardest hit WFOs, what we had compares well to some of the most active winter stretches in my time here, aside from the relentless 2013-14 winter. And it happening in a strong Niño makes it unexpected and memorable.

 

Disclaimer: Tenor of the post is as a fellow weenie, separate from you and your colleagues being valued NWS employees...

The issue, as always, is that our expectations are so low. When people resign themselves to the fact that 10 days of winter (regardless of ENSO state or various indices) is acceptable, where does that leave us?  Even if the 10-day stretch is really good (in this case I'd give it a B or B+ since our friends in the city missed out and it had the potential to be even better), would we ever be ok with 10 days of summer?  In summer, people don't care about the indices - it's just summer.  Sure, some patterns can be 70s and humid and others can be 90s and dry, but it still feels like summer either way simply because of the calendar.

Can't chalk it all up to a strong El Nino.  Last year didn't feature that, but the winter was still horrible. It's maddening to have to depend on the perfect alphabet soup of indices to get winter.  Shouldn't the calendar be enough?

Our problem is temps, not precip/snow. A day with a high of 15F in January shouldn't be a big deal.  Sure, it's a bit cold...but nothing crazy.  The problem is that it needs to be offset by another day with a high of 45F, since our average high in Jan is 30F.  The good patterns can be really good, but it's short-lived and everything else is bad.  Would have been nice to follow up the 10-day good pattern with regular winter, like highs 25-30F and lows in the teens with a bit of snowfall.  Nothing crazy, just some basic winter-type stuff.  But it's always way up and way down.  We never get "normal" winter weather here.  It's either a good pattern which you hope produces in a short window...or nothing.

And it's even worse because all of those comments are referencing Jan, the core of winter.  Dec/Feb are even worse, as average monthly highs are higher, around 35F.

The problem with low expectations is that it makes people think they should be ok with 10 days of winter, when DJF is 91 days long. If that's the case, what's the point of being excited about winter?  So maybe we get to celebrate 20-30 days in winter (instead of 10) with other ENSO states?  Ok...I guess that's a small improvement.

Would be nice to look out the window in DJF and not have to worry about melting.  I don't look out the window between mid-June and mid-Sept and worry about it being cold outside. You may have an occasional cool morning...but 98 times out of 100 it will feel like summer in summer. No one is asking for subzero temps and feet of snow continuously; just a nice 6-8 week stretch of temps mainly in the 10s-20s (even a few afternoons in the 30s, as long as the nights are cold) with at least some accumulating snow in the less productive weeks. I guess we pin our hopes on mid-Feb to mid-Mar, even though it will be tough to keep snow on the ground?  If Dec would have been decent, the current stretch would be more tolerable...but winter was nowhere to be found in the month with the shortest daylight and the holidays. Regardless of how the rest of the winter turns out, it's impossible to recover from that.

We finally get the lakes to freeze around here, then it all goes to ****. Nothing is stable or consistent. There should be a 4-6 week period where the lakes are frozen, regardless of indices. Maybe it's even more than 4-6 weeks in the better winters (imagine that!), but the big issue is stability and the feeling of winter. We just don't have it here - it can't be counted on. 

5 hours ago, TheRegionRat said:

When did O'Hare dip below zero, Saturday night or Sunday morning?  I think the record is 100 consecutive hours below zero?  I think that's safe.  If it doesn't get above zero there today, is 60 hours reasonable?  

It went above zero at ORD this afternoon, hourly high of 1F (may have hit 2F intrahour). 36 consecutive hours subzero. 
 

But RFD is a different story. They stayed subzero this afternoon, and are up to 42 consecutive hours subzero. If they stay below zero tomorrow afternoon, it could be a Top 5 all time streak.

Forecast for Havre, MT. Current record low for January 13th is -35F set in 1997, which will be obliterated. Records go back to the late 1800s. All-time record low is -57F set on 1/27/1916. Normal for the date is 28/7.

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

How does anyone live there? I would never leave the house! 

They get chinooks quite often, so on average most days aren't as cold as one might think given thier latitude/location.  But when it gets cold, it can be extreme.  This current cold snap is close to all-time record low wind chills...and in Nebraska too.  NWS Omaha:

Moving on to the bitter cold temperatures, a wind chill warning
remains in effect from this evening through midday Tuesday. Wind
chill values are forecast to eventually bottom out in the 40 to
50 below zero range Sunday morning. The current wind chill
warning that we have in effect will be the longest duration wind
chill warning that we`ve ever issued. Actual air temperatures
will not likely get above zero Saturday through Monday for most
of the area. This would rank the second longest stretch of
consecutive days below zero for Omaha, the last most recent
occurrence would be December 1983. The record is 4 days in
February 1936. For context, the absolute lowest wind chills
we`ve ever recorded in our area on -52 in 1983 in Omaha, -53 in
1990 in Norfolk, and -50 in 1983 in Lincoln. So we`re not
forecasting record wind chills, but historically it will be
close. For actual air temperatures, we could set min maximum
temperature records the next three days at Norfolk with the
below zero values, and we could set record low minimums at both
Lincoln and Norfolk Sunday morning with lows 19 to 20 below zero.

^Yeah, that lobe of cold air is well into MT now. Cut Bank had a high temp (!) of -25F today...and that was at midnight.  PM temps never got above -27F, and it could drop to -45F tonight with wind chills near -65F.

Crazy stuff...

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

I really doubt lake temperature has any significant impact on the track of winter storms.  The lake only becomes an issue when temperatures are marginal to begin with.  If the air coming over the lake was in the middle 20s, the warmth would boost snowfall. Milwaukee got a boost from the warmer lake temps. If the air is 32 to begin with, then raising the temp 3-4 degrees is a problem.

Maybe I should have re-phrased the issue.  If the lake temps were 2-4 degrees cooler like they should be this time of year, we could have gotten away with the imperfect tracks of both systems.  Once the winds turned east, areas near the lake were toast in both cases. It was even bad further inland. Last night, temps in SW Lake County IL were in the low 20s around 8PM, then shot up 8-12 degrees very quickly once the winds turned east.  There was no margin for error.  If this were November, you expect these issues...but not in January.

Chicago and RC's points about the poor antecedent airmass were also true - can't argue with that - and I I tip my hat.

Not trying to argue with anyone on this - but simply acknowledging and relating to the pain of snow lovers in the city who have a legitimate right to be furious and sad right now. Oh well, first-world problems...but it's a weather board after all, and the past two winters have been bad enough in our area. 

Edit: Just saw mimillman mention that Wicker Park has no more snow cover right now...that's ridiculous. Warm lake temps are definitely a factor...how could they not be? Not saying it's the only factor. Hopefully you guys can get some of the wraparound snow overnight. 

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Snowfall totals as of noon…
ORD - 4.4”
MDW - 5.3”
RFD - 4.9”


.

Those totals are a huge disappointment.

The warm lake destroyed two potentially great storms in one week.  If the lake temps would have been anywhere close to normal, there would have been two benefits: (1) further south track/warm intrusion for each storm, like N IL often sees in the Spring when warm fronts get hung up south of the lake (2) less of a temp increase from the easterly winds.  Even a 1-2 F decrease would have been huge for both storms.

Could have easily seen 20+ inches widespread across N IL this week...but instead even the best snow areas in the metro area only have 5-8" of water-laden slop on the ground.

Very unfortunate. Probably shouldn't be too upset since there's still snow on the ground and cold temps on the way...but we shouldn't have to worry about lake warmth in mid-Jan.  The warm December continues to haunt us. 

The cold is ending up even more impressive than originally thought.  From NWS Great Falls, for posterity.  Forecast low tonight in Cut Bank, MT is -43...the forecast was in the -30s earlier today.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
837 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Snow continues to fall across the state through tomorrow morning.
Extreme cold temperatures settle in for the weekend along with
dangerous wind chills. Cold temperatures linger into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

With this evening`s forecast update, I lowered some of the
overnight mountain temperatures a bit more than those included in
our original forecast. Further, I increased relative humidity
values, especially for southwest Montana. Only minor adjustments
were made to wind speed/gusts values. No further updates are
necessary, at this time.
- Fogleman

&&

.AVIATION...
624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024 (12/00Z TAF Period)

Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the
following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN and KEKS.

Winter weather impacts aviation during this 12/00Z TAF period,
causing airfields to fall into MVFR/IFR/LIFR ranges, in snow and/or
blowing snow or mist/freezing fog. Periods of gusty winds are
forecast. Mountain obscuration continues for the duration of this
TAF period. Dangerously cold temperatures impact aviation ops, with
surface temperatures reaching as low as 35 below during this TAF
period.
- Fogleman

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024/
Rest of today through Friday morning...A surface low pressure is
sliding to the southeast along the western MT/ID border. The
arctic front is currently draped along the middle Gallatin County
to southern Powell county corridor. Current radar shows widespread
light snow across Western, Central, North Central MT. The snow
should slowly push southward along the arctic during the
afternoon and evening. Southwest Montana should begin to see
widespread snow move in during the evening. Widespread snow will
continue to fall across the CWA through tonight and into Friday
morning. Snowfall across the lower elevations will remain on the
lighter side. However, current radar and surface observations show
that there can be some moderate snow banding at times. Since
liquid precipitation is low and snow ratios are high, total snow
accumulations remain low. Lower elevations are forecasted to see
between 1-3" of snow. The heavier snow will fall along the lower
Rocky Mountain Front and the Gates of the Mountains region where
the Winter Storm Warning remains on track. As the arctic front
pushes south overnight into Friday morning, widespread snow should
begin to end north to south. Snow will push out of the mountains
and southwest Montana late Friday morning and clear out by Friday
afternoon.

The main concern for the short term forecast this weekend is the
extreme cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening wind
chills. Temperatures will continue to steadily fall through Saturday
morning. With winds sustaining between 15-20mph, dangerous wind
chills are the main impact. The Wind Chill Warning comes into an
effect this evening for Central and North Central Montana and Wind
Chill advisories for Southwestern MT. Overnight lows Friday morning
are expected to reach 20 to 35 below in Central and North Central
MT. -Wilson

Friday through Sunday...A highly anomalous H500 trough and
associated Arctic airmass will bring dangerous, and potentially life
threatening, cold temperatures and wind chills to all of North
Central, Central, and portions of Southwest Montana through the
period. NAEFS return intervals for H850-700 temperatures are on the
order of 30 years to even outside of the climatological range. ECMWF
EFI values with respect to both high and low temperatures are in
excess of 0.95 across all of Southwest through North Central
Montana, with a shift of tails of 0 to 1 across most of the Northern
Rockies. This all translates into a highly impactful cold outbreak
through the period; with the potential for not only new record low
minimum temperatures to be established at numerous climate site, but
also new record low maximum temperatures. Overnight low
temperatures, particularly from Friday night through Saturday
morning, have a 30-60% chance of exceeding 40 degrees below zero
across the Golden Triangle (i.e. between Cut Bank, Havre, and Great
Falls). I would not be surprised if a couple of 50 degree below zero
reports occur over this timeframe and overall location given the
forecasted surface high of ~1045mb to 1050mb expected to slide south
along the Canadian Rockies and over Northern Montana. Forecasted
high temperatures over the timeframe are unlikely to exceed 10
degrees below zero north of the I-90 corridor, with overnight lows
generally dipping into the 20 to 40 degree below zero range. I can
not emphasis how dangerous it will be to be outside for anyone who
is not dressed properly or becomes stranded while traveling. Wind
chill values of 40 to nearly 70 degrees below zero are expected
expected north of the I-90 corridor at times through Sunday, with
the coldest wind chills expected to occur from this evening through
Saturday morning. If you must travel, have an emergency kit for your
vehicle and keep the gas tank as full as possible. Even short trips
could become life threatening if your vehicle breaks down and you
are unprepared. - Moldan

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I had mentioned this in another thread, but the 12z GFS has ORD below zero for 60 straight hours, and under freezing until at least 1/25. 

Would be the 4th longest streak of sub-zero on record (behind Dec 1983, Feb 1996, Jan 1982 and surpassing Jan 2019). 

And while this is likely overdone, 12z GEM at hour 96 has a pixel of -63F in south-central Alberta.

Copying this over from the January thread...

The cold air is on the move...you don't often see a Wind Chill Watch for 3+ days in length. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
243 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

NEZ042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092-101645-
/O.NEW.KOAX.WC.Y.0001.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOAX.WC.A.0001.240113T0000Z-240116T1800Z/
/O.CON.KOAX.WS.A.0002.240111T2100Z-240113T0000Z/
Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-
Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Pawnee-
Including the cities of Blair, Wahoo, La Vista, Papillion, David
City, Sterling, Fairbury, Table Rock, Beatrice, Yutan, Crete,
Fremont, Columbus, Pawnee City, Bellevue, Ashland, Nebraska City,
Lincoln, Wilber, Plattsmouth, Tecumseh, Milford, Seward, Omaha,
and Schuyler
243 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as
  high as 35 mph, leading to areas of blowing snow. For the Wind
  Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low
  as 20 below zero. For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind
  chills possible. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast
  Nebraska.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday afternoon through
  Friday afternoon. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight
  Thursday Night to noon CST Friday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from
  Friday evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact daily commutes Thursday and Friday. The
  dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin
  in as little as 10 minutes.