J.Spin

Now it's time...

I’ve been somewhat curious as well, so I just rain the numbers on the Mt. Mansfield Co-Op data from 1954. There are a couple of seasons not included in the analysis because of gaps in the data collection, but there are still 62 seasons in the data set that should be providing accurate data barring any other observations issues. The data suggest this is a few days on the late side of the mean for first accumulating snow, but overall quite typical: Date of 1st Accumulating Snow at Mt. Mansfield, VT Co-Op Station: Mean: 10/10 Median: 10/8 Mode: 10/17 S.D.: 15 days N: 62 Earliest: 8/28/1986 Latest: 11/17/1985

Per PF’s comment about some elevation snow in the area, I popped out for a walk in our neighborhood to check out the views. The cloud ceiling in the 2,000’ peaks to our south is in 2,000’ to 2,500’ range, and I didn’t see anything there, and Camel’s Hump is well socked in with a ceiling around 2,000’, so no accumulations to report below that point. A shower came through while I was out, which I’m sure is flakes up high based on the temperatures. There’s some potential clearing later today, so hopefully some views will open up.

We don’t want to get too crazy and jump the gun here. It sounds like there’s at least some snow, but PF is still in investigation mode, so we hold the #nice in our pocket for now.

Nice PF – hopefully the first report of October snow in the Greens on our web page, keep us posted!

LOL, well, as the forecast suggests that we teeter on the verge of the holy season, you know this discussion has to be passed along. Here’s to a season full of many, many snowy PF pics! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1035 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 347 PM EDT Thursday...Days 4 thru 7 will feature a mid/upper level trof across the ne conus with a series of fronts in the progressive northwest flow aloft. These front will contain limited moisture as the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will be closed for business, but periods of below normal temps are likely. Have continued to mention high chc pops on Monday/Monday Night as GFS/ECMWF are advertising short wave energy/mid level moisture and sfc cold front crossing our fa. Still some timing differences, but expect a 2 to 4 hour window of mainly rain showers, before ending as a period of mtn snow showers on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning. Once again, still some uncertainty on timing of low level caa and amount of leftover moisture to produce a light accumulating snowfall in the mountains. A light dusting is possible near summits and I look forward to pics from the picnic tables on Mt Mansfield from PF.

The orographics around here definitely help those first snows to happen earlier and more frequently – the chance of October snow on Mansfield seems to run at about 90%, and it’s common to have multiple snow events each October, not just one (for example, Oct 2017 had three, Oct 2016 had two, Oct 2015 had two, Oct 2014 had four, etc.) I know you’d commented that seeing mention of flakes in the forecast didn’t mean much, but what I’m seeing in our point forecast is definitely more than the usual first hints – starting Monday night, flakes are in our valley forecast for the next six periods, right through Thursday. We’ll see if that changes of course, but typically we’ll get mention of snow just in the mountain forecasts, and we’ll get those first flakes in the mountain valleys thanks to squalls combining with orographics helping to bring the snow levels way down along the spine. I haven’t looked into the Mansfield data to pull out the numbers, but for here in the valley our mean date for first frozen/trace is October 20th, and for accumulation it’s October 27th. The mean first accumulating snow for Mansfield is probably in that mid-October range like you suggest.

Well, the calendar has been saying it’s time, multiple runs of various models have been suggesting it, and now the BTV NWS forecast discussion is starting to mention it: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...As of 401 AM EDT Tuesday...Over the weekend the big "highlight" is that we`ll be cooler on Friday into Saturday. The cooler temps should be cold enough that higher elevation locations should see a dusting of snow as an upper level trough brings a chance of showers/flurries depending on elevation both Saturday and Sunday. Actually, modeling suggests multiple chance for snow in the next couple of weeks, at least as it stands now. Checking on last October, my records show three rounds of snow, one on the 16th, a second on the 27th, and then one more on the 31st. We're definitely coming up fast now on that part of the season.

Thanks Kevin, as always, we appreciate this great resource you’ve put together. I just checked, and things seem to be working on my end. We’re into October now, which is typically our first month for accumulating snow (seems to be close to 70% of seasons based on my data), so hopefully it won’t be too long before we’ll have something to put in the table.

I can’t figure out what’s going on here - did someone hack your account?

We headed over the App Gap today and the foliage was fantastic, although there are already some spots that are past peak. Contrast that to when we dropped down into Addison County in the Champlain Valley – there was so much green that it felt as if we were back to summer. There are definitely some pockets of great color down in the valley as well, but it’s most definitely still pre-peak.

LOL, we know. It sounds beautiful, but even so, swimming and AC are still fairly impractical up here in October. You can’t necessarily expect NZ tweeters and parrots to know that though.

September rainfall for our location came in at 2.90”, which is ~0.80” below average, but well within ± 1 S.D. So, it was a little on the dry side but much closer to average than the midsummer months were this year.

LOL, It’s basically been the same thing for the past several years; it’s where the “Delusions in Seasons” expression came from.

Spectacular shots PF, we’ve had some amazing days as of late – lucky we live here.

Great stuff as usual PF – sweet to have those ground observations confirming your thoughts. I guess we still have to get through this week of hellish dew points though – not sure how folks are going to survive lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s, but hopefully they’ll manage.

From the CoCoRaHS water year summary reports that are available (2010 to present) I did a quick check on Underhill 4.4 NNE (14 miles northeast of the BTV airport) and got 144.1” for the annual snowfall average. I did leave out the 2016 data, since it was so aberrant it should easily qualify for outlier status, and would dramatically affect such a small data set. Running the same average for our site, I got 156.8”, which is actually quite representative of the longer-term average I have in my data, so that stretch could be a decent representation. So, the average out here in our spot near the spine might be a touch higher than that specific Underhill site. The Underhill 4.4 NNE site is only at an elevation of 936’ though, so I have to imagine that houses in the 1,000’ – to 1,500’ range are easily 150”+. It seems like those west slope locations can be a bit more feast or famine in terms of yearly snowfall due to their dependence on west side upslope snow, but in a year with good upslope they can easily go big and hit 200”+ like PF says. For example in the 2010-2011 season, Underhill 4.4 NNE saw 223.0” of snow vs only 197.0” here at our site. And indeed the 25 out of 30 days with snowfall in a month isn’t that outrageous. The average number of days here with snowfall is close to 100 per season, so there are certainly going to be opportunities for stretches like that.

Yeah, BTV absolutely does have respectable annual snowfall, with probably somewhat below average snow retention due to its broad valley geography, but the big reason it appears to come up short is the massive snowfall gradient we have here. When you’re 10-15 miles away from what are essentially the snowiest locations in the entire Eastern U.S., comparisons are going to be made, and it’s going to be hard to stand out or look as respectable as if considered in isolation.

Yeah, I was sort of lucky in that I lived in Burlington before I was too aware of the massive climate disparity relative to spots out in the Greens. The difference was obvious with respect to the higher elevations of course, but I had no clue about the differences even with respect to the mountain valleys. You often speak of the massive climate gradient between BTV and the Greens, so in that respect it’s awesome to live anywhere in the area because you can experience such dramatic changes over short distances. From Burlington, you can simply head east just 10 or 20 miles and be in an area with literally triple, or even quadruple the annual snowfall. And we’re not talking multiples of a measly 10, 20, or even 40 inches, that’s relative to BTV’s 80ish inches. Eyewall has probably been the perfect example of taking advantage of his location to experience the incredible snow gradients with his frequent trips from the Champlain Valley up to Bolton Valley in the winter. Personally, I love getting to traverse from the spine out to BTV and back so frequently, especially during the winter. Heading out from dumping snow to sunshine, and often back into the maelstrom again at the end of the day is quite a way to experience the neat climate gradient we’ve got here.

BTV does have quite an amazing vibe with Church Street, the UVM and Champlain College campuses, Waterfront Park, Lake Champlain, the Greens, the ‘dacks, etc. It’s easy to see why it’s so often making those “top 10 places to live” lists, for what they’re worth at least.

August liquid here at our site came in at 3.25”, which is ~0.80” (~20%) below average, but much closer to average than July was. Calendar year liquid is at 30.36”, which is ~5” (~14%) below average, and with one month left, water year liquid is 42.14”, running ~12% below average. Looking back at this year’s monthly numbers, it was definitely that May, June, and July stretch that was the most notably dry.

That’s interesting, having seen them operate for decades here (apparently the company was established in 1967), I never got the impression it was an especially risky activity like skydiving or base jumping etc. – everyday folks from around here or tourists go up all the time. It seemed like the risk would be in line with riding in other small aircraft, or even safer since engine failure isn’t an issue. Presumably the NTSB or FAA have stats on that, so it would be interesting to find out about the statistics on crashes etc. It sounds like the comparison is challenging though, here’s a discussion where some people discussed it and one person sort of made the attempt at a comparison: https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/51566/are-there-any-data-on-the-safety-rate-of-gliders-vs-single-engine-ga-aircraft

I grabbed the Mt. Mansfield snow depth data for the seasons people seem to have been taking about in this thread (except ’51-’52 which doesn’t appear to be available on the SkiVT-L Mt. Mansfield Weather Data Page). Snowpack seems decent in those seasons as far as I can tell – there’s really not much below the mean. I’m sure PF will comment if he gets a chance.

Indeed, I’d say above average temperatures are often fantastic around here for both September and October. September is kind of a no brainer because the chance for skiable snow is essentially nil. October is a bit tougher because there’s almost always some snow, and below average temperatures or at least a below average stretch can mean some nice early season turns. It looks like last year we had one round of snow in September, and then three rounds of snow in October on the 16th, the 27th, and the 31st. There wasn’t really anything notable in terms of skiable snow though. The previous year had some more substantial events however, with the first salvo coming on the 23rd and dropping a foot of snow at elevation. I was out of town for that one, but it kept snowing with upslope from the moist cyclonic flow, and I got out for some turns on the 28th, by which point it looks like the northern half of the state had seen 18-20” at elevation. That was a great way to kick things off for the season: