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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Yep, sick fronto band. Hard to take that serious though would have rather had the big picture look better.
  2. This storm blowing up helps the pattern down the line. Turns into a 50/50 type feature locks in an okay HP in a good spot. Day 6 euro buries SNE because of help from this event.
  3. Woops yeah Sunday. getting that precip to start before daytime warming would be important. This is more like a swf event. Surface is marginal but upper air is fine so if we find the right balance of precip/strength and timing will work out. You’d actually see more white rain if we got fringed. The heavier precip would help cool the BL
  4. Agree with everything you said except day time. This falls after 1am monday into the morning hours up to like noon. Starting before dawn will help keep the BL cool.
  5. Np, normally it’s out by now it’s just delayed for some reason I’ll post it when SV has it out far enough.
  6. Where is icon out? It just started running on SV, double check it’s not an old run fyi
  7. Didn’t come out on SV yet it’s south?
  8. Timing is good too, overnight for you guys with this being a wet snow with BL issues it’s a positive. Starts before dawn here in Philly too
  9. As Tombo pointed out on another forum this is like a SWFE here. Have a low near the lakes. If it can stay all snow I love these types. Heavy wet snow will stick to everything and then we drip. I like that it starts before dawn here
  10. Verbatim this looks like a classic heavy wet snow and then once it shuts off we drip
  11. Be very careful with BL guys. It is very close to being a big issue this run. Awesome to see though
  12. Yep just posted a gif on our Philly forum. This will be a much better run
  13. Yea that’s a pretty big increase in qpf. I’m still worried about 1 camp being inland and the other OTS. We need “just right” down here in Philly.
  14. I went to California University of PA for op met. Back in 2005-07. That school was really growing at the time and had a very good program. I actually knew 3-4 posters from this site when I went there lol. Just another option for you to look at. Think they also offer a masters degree too.
  15. The trend is real. I’m actually more worried about rain than OTS. As Walt drag says we need the cmc to come on board. This event reminds me of 2013-14 where every shortwave trended better at this range. I really think this ends up being a 6-10” event in the suburbs. These types of waves seem to always trend wetter and stronger. It’s pure stj & with today’s ocean temps expect a juicier system
  16. I think it very well could be. There are some deep lows on those individuals. This is a sensitive setup where if you just neg tilt that wave a little bit more kaboom.
  17. Nice trend with 6z euro. Much sharper shortwave. This is a nice surprise let’s keep it going at 12z
  18. Yep I’ll be hyping this up until it fails, but 18z gfs pretty much progressed exactly how I’ve been talking about. Hope eps starts honing in next few days. We always have our opportunity for big ones after block has fully retrograded and tpv moves east into 50/50 region
  19. I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo
  20. You can see the nice trend on the eps today as well. Hopefully we see eps start honing in on it more over the next few days. Gfs also had that quick spike in the pna which allowed that wave to dig as far as it did. Seeing slightly better pna ridging today hopefully that continues. HA event potentially. That 50/50 region is hawt. Just need spacing to work out
  21. I love how the 18z gfs formed a storm at day 10-11 in the exact same way I’ve been talking about
  22. That’s the risk with AO blocks retrograding west. Forces ULL sit west of lakes which increases ridging on the EC. Then you get HP off the EC. You have to hope the ULL is strong enough to get the gradient south enough This is why I’m more excited in the Day 10+ time frame. Look at end of euro run you have an elongated PV in 50/50 location with confluence draped behind it. A rising PNA. If a shortwave can form between the two it’s a perfect setup * note the HP sitting in a great spot at the end of the run. im still not dismissing anything until then I just like the potential towards feb 11-17 more
  23. Problem is the Tpv is west of lakes this will make it tough for any low to track south of NYC. Think the gradient will be very close to NYC though but I’d favor SNE and NNE right now. Looks more like a SWFE to me. HP is not in an idea location because of the ULL positioning.
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