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marsman

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    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


    Can someone link it? I don’t have it saved.

    Ian definitely build a nice surge on its north side based on buoy readings I have been looking at. That easterly fetch with the high pressure gradient is a very rare setup this far south. Something more like you would see in New England during some of the classic nor’easters. Sc is going to be another major damage area. As JM and I have noted as we both lived in Long Beach Ny, salt water flooding in itself is a disaster as you need to gut down to the studs to properly repair


    .

    Here's one: https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/jordan.hall.html

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

    I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point. 

     

    20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

    Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names 

    I say we go back to using the Greek Alphabet. If we go over, use AA, AB, AC, etc.

    Hurricane Ian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    18 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

    Been bone dry in Raleigh for weeks. We can soak it up.

     

    1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

    Same here in Hickory, NC. We got 0.62 inch of rainfall last night due to a rogue storm on the frontal passage, but that was the first measurable rainfall in weeks. We need the rain here.

    Last measurable rain IMBY was Sept 12th. Only 1.52" for the month so far. Not bothering aerating the lawn, it's hard as a rock.

    September 2022 Observations

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    FWIW I was in Morrisville/Briar Creek this afternoon and the Apple Watch said 97... not sure if that data came from KRDU though. High of 96 at the house in south Cary, I can believe 98.

    No precip recorded today IMBY, only some good breezes. Currently 76 and falling.

    Closer to the coast, nasty looking "S" shaped cell near NWS Newport right now. Should make for some interesting winds and waves tomorrow.

     

    Major Hurricane Fiona

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    The NHC's "squished-Mercator-ish" map (I'm no cartographer) looks really weird when it has to be stretched from the mid-Atlantic to the Arctic Circle. I also noticed they didn't bother marking the wind speed probabilities above 60N. First time I think I've seen that cutoff. 

    • Like 1

    Major Hurricane Fiona

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    From Canadian Hurricane Centre:  4-8" of rain and 30+ foot waves in the Gulf of St. Lawrence

    Quote

    ....

    Fiona expected to impact Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec with heavy rainfall and powerful hurricane force winds for the start of the weekend.

    .....

    2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

    This storm is shaping up to be a potentially severe event for Atlantic Canada. Numerous weather models are quite consistent in their prediction of what we call a deep hybrid low pressure system, possessing both tropical and intense winter storm-type properties (but with very heavy rainfall and severe winds).
    The latest forecast guidance brings hurricane Fiona off-shore to the south of Nova Scotia Friday night, passing through eastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton Saturday, and then reaching the Lower Quebec North Shore and Southeastern Labrador early Sunday. Severe winds and rainfall will have major impacts for eastern Prince Edward Island, eastern Nova Scotia, western Newfoundland, eastern Quebec, and southeastern Labrador. There will also be large waves, especially for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, there is a high likelihood of storm surge for parts of Nova Scotia, Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland.

    a. Wind.

    Most regions will experience some hurricane force winds. These severe winds will begin impacting the region late Friday and continue on Saturday. Similar cyclones of this nature have produced structural damage to buildings. Construction sites may be particularly vulnerable. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, potentially causing prolonged utility outages

    b. Rainfall.

    Rainfall will be significant, especially north and west of Fiona's track, where heavy rainfall could lead to flooding. the highest rainfall amounts are likely for eastern Nova Scotia, southwestern Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region. Forecast guidance is suggesting widespread amounts of 100 to 200 mm, but closer to the path of Fiona, more than 200 mm is likely. Some districts have received large quantities of rain recently, and excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential.

    c. Surge/Waves.

    There will also be some rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large waves will reach the eastern shore of Nova Scotia Friday night and build to more than 10 metres. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Saturday morning. Some of the waves over eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence could be higher than 7 metres. Waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Storm surge will also be a threat, for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, including Northumberland Strait, Gulf of St. Lawrence region including Iles-de-la-Madeleine, and southwest Newfoundland, but it is too early to provide details on which portions of the coastline may be affected the most.

    3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

    Hurricane force southeasterlies should spread into Scotian Slope waters Friday evening, these hurricane force southeasterlies will persist near and south of the track. As the storm moves into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies will likely develop behind it. Waves in excess of 12 metres should form south and east of the hurricane track, beginning Friday night. These large waves will likely reach the south coast of Newfoundland early Saturday, and parts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence later Saturday.

    Forecaster(s): Clements/Couturier.

     

    Quote 
    FXCN31 CWHX 211800
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3.10 PM ADT
Wednesday 21 September 2022.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT, hurricane Fiona was located near latitude 25.1 N and
longitude 71.7 W, about 571 nautical miles or 1058 km southwest of
Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 115 knots (213
km/h) and central pressure at 937 MB. Fiona is moving north at 7
knots (13 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 21  3.00 PM  25.1N  71.7W   937  115  213
Sep 22  3.00 AM  27.2N  71.0W   936  120  222
Sep 22  3.00 PM  29.7N  69.7W   936  120  222
Sep 23  3.00 AM  32.4N  67.4W   936  120  222
Sep 23  3.00 PM  36.9N  64.1W   937  115  213
Sep 24  3.00 AM  43.3N  61.2W   936  100  185
Sep 24  3.00 PM  46.9N  60.4W   935   70  130 post-tropical
Sep 25  3.00 AM  50.0N  60.1W   942   60  111 post-tropical
Sep 25  3.00 PM  53.0N  59.8W   952   45   83 post-tropical
Sep 26  3.00 AM  56.0N  59.4W   963   40   74 post-tropical


3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Fiona, a category 4 hurricane, is continuing northward. The once well
defined eye has been filling with cloud on satellite over the last
few hours. Vigorous convection is continuing to wrap around the
centre, with satellite derived cloud top temperatures nearing - 80c
in the northwestern quadrant. An area of convection well to the
northeast of the centre is also evident on satellite at this time.
Maximum sustained winds are held at 115 kts, and the central pressure
is estimated at 937 MB.  The motion is northward at 7 knots.

B. Prognostic

The environment will likely support slight intensification in the
next day or so, as the hurricane travels in a moist environment over
very warm waters under light to moderate wind shear. Beyond 18 hours,
the model consensus begins to accelerate as an upper trough
approaches from the west, bringing the hurricane near Sable Island
Friday night as it undergoes extra-tropical transition. Then
post-tropical storm Fiona is expected to make landfall over Cape
Breton Island Saturday morning while maintaining sustained hurricane
force winds.  The forecast track has been shifted slighty westward
with this update, to reflect the tight clustering of guidance
ensemble members over Northern Cape Breton. The cumulative qpf field
from the rdps/gdps suite is indicating a pre-cursor rainfall event
well ahead of the centre beginning as early as Friday morning or
afternoon. Rainfall totals suggested by the main models is showing
more than 200 mm north and northwest of the track.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
21/18Z  145 140  90 125    75  65  45  60    40  35  25  35
22/06Z  160 160 110 135    80  80  55  65    45  45  35  40
22/18Z  180 185 130 145    90  90  65  75    50  50  35  50
23/06Z  200 205 155 155   100 100  80  80    55  50  30  45
23/18Z  215 225 195 180   110 115  95  90    65  50  15  35
24/06Z  395 430 360 350   260 250 210 220   140 130  95 110
24/18Z  370 370 380 320   130 160 150 180    65  60   0  20
25/06Z  360 300 300 250    70  90  30   0     0   0   0   0
25/18Z  120 160 115 160     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
26/06Z   20 100  20 100     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


END/COUTURIER/CLEMENTS

     

    August 2022 Observations

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Closed out August with 4.08" of rain. Monthly high of 98.2 on August 3rd, low of 60.0 on August 13th.

    As for today, 63.4 at 7:15am this morning. Dare I say - a little chill for shorts and flip flops!

    Looking back at 2021, September gave me my first fall 40's with a low of 49 on September 24th. Firewood ready!

    Hurricane Danielle

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    Would be absolutely comical if the LAST possible advisory for August featured a system 

    If that happens they should name the system Rich Strike - that horse that almost no one expected to win the Kentucky Derby.

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