nycwinter

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Again, I don't know where you're getting the idea that experts are saying it isn't likely to peter out in warmer weather. I've read quotes from numerous experts, and most of them are optimistic that it will peter out in warmer weather. Corona is a viral respiratory illness just like the flu, and flu peters out in warmer weather. Here is a quote from Dr. Nancy Messonniere, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases....

 

"Other viral respiratory diseases are seasonal, including influenza and therefore in many viral respiratory diseases we do see a decrease in disease in spring and summer. And so we can certainly be optimistic that this disease will follow suit."

 

And that type of quote is what we're seeing from most experts. Again they're not GUARANTEEING that this will happen, since it's a new virus. They can't be 100% sure. But since it's very similar to the flu, it's very likely that it will peter out in warmer weather. It spreads in the same way as cold/flu, so common sense says it's likely to peter out in warm season just like the other respiratory illnesses.

 

Just like it's reasonable to assume that the death rate is much lower than what's being reported, it's also reasonable to assume that the reported 20% hospitalization rate is also much lower. Again, most people get mild symptoms similar to flu and many of them don't even realize it's Corona. They don't go to the doctor because they assume it's flu, so those people do not go into the statistics. If they did go into the stats, both the death and hospitalization rates would be much lower.

 

The reason why we're seeing the mega panic and hoarding going on, is people don't do well with things/concerns that are totally new. This isn't much different than the flu, but it's completely new and that scares people. You put on the tv and half of the news is dedicated to this virus. That's absurd and it causing a lot of the panic. Again we have flu outbreaks that kill thousands of people. It is estimated that the flu has killed 18,000 people in this country already this year. The flu is a MUCH bigger threat right now, yet the media is covering Corona like it's the much bigger threat. It's very unfortunate and leading to this horrendous hoarding that's going on. At least the grocery store that I go to is now putting a limit on how much water each person can buy, but it's really sad and disturbing that it has come to that.

no vaccine for corona unlike the flu. lot's of people are elderly or middle age with chronic medical issues..there is good reason to panic for people in those categories..to compare it to the flu  is insulting.. it is  a lot for deadlier then the flu especially in people in high risk categories...

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Umm not "elderly" but middle aged with diabetes or high BP. Which is millions of people. The virus is much worse than the flu as no one has immunity. Kids do not get the disease, but they carry the virus. Probably because their systems are set to be exposed to new viruses; adults are not. Health care workers are also dying because of viral load. How serious is this? Every school system in NJ is expected to close within the next two weeks. Plans have been made to deliver lessons at home. The days do not have to be made up. Attendance policies for both staff and students have been suspended. My wife is a researcher in pharma and they have been told to be ready for long term closure. In 31 years, through the brutal winter of 94, and weeks long closures due to Sandy, districts have never been told they don't have to make up days. And requests to do online lessons in lieu of snow days have been denied by the state. Not this time. I expect this will ultimately change the way things are done moving forward; snow days will be a thing of the past, and it is setting a precedent for cyber learning. It's going to be one big experiment. Universities are telling students they can stay there on break, but if they go home be ready to continue lessons online. I have never seen anything like this. We were called in the other day with administrators and told this is not if, it is when....let's hope to God this is all hype and comes to nothing. Because frankly, our medical system is a mess and cannot handle this. There are not enough respirators, masks, hospital beds, or health care workers. The current mortality rate is around 3.4%. It could be lower if it turns out far more people are infected with milder disease, but with not enough testing kits,  hard to say . If, as expected, 60-70% of the population becomes infected, do the math. And around 20% of nonfatal cases are serious and require hospitalization. The only hope is that the virus peters out in warm weather, but experts do NOT expect that to happen. And even if it does, they expect it to be back in the fall. Now, I am not a scientist. I am trained in social sciences, but I am married to a biotechnologist engaged in muscular dystrophy research. We talk. And I read. A lot. And I know we have a few PhD's here who are better able to delve into the particulars, and if they have some more reassuring data, please post it. 

great post...

i don't know the ages of the people here but if your elderly or middle age with medical issues you should be scared until a vaccine is found..

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

How true. The cat's outta the bag already; the virus was not contained here, likely from incompetence by those at the top but in the end it may be something that was impossible to do. 

well the virus probably got here not much later after it was first diagnosed in china many months ago... in this age of global travel nothing could have prevented this..

14 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Even then who cares? If you're elderly or generally high risk for the flu its business as usual with precautions.... no one bats an eye at the flu yet there's hysteria about this equally routine virus.

their is a flu vaccine so comparing this to the flu is laughable..

does not feel  that cold at all outside upper 30's gusty wind you can thank the march sun for that..

one last insult to end winter..

54 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I bet someone there puts up a 60 inch total

only possible due to the fact the winter been warm and most if not all the lake are not frozen...

48 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said:

Yes it’s me. This winter sucked

what happened to your always optimistic point of view that winter is coming?

the gfs has to be upgraded again it's has now become the old nam

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watch this happen along with a cold and active March.

It is like clock  work.

would not mind a raw chilly april into may anything to hold back the heat for as long as possible...

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

I wasn’t alive in the 80’s, but it sounded awful. Weather-wise, I only have a clear memory of 2009 onwards, that was right around the time our snowfall amounts started going haywire. My normal is abnormal.

how young are you 13?

On 2/5/2020 at 2:56 PM, JustinRP37 said:

I swear some people think NYC is geographically located where Albany is when they show maps...

well you can have a decent snowstorm in march even in the city so their is still hope...

very quiet with the winds..

not much wind at all in the city...

2 hours ago, doncat said:

2 lowest pressures I've recorded are 28.40" with Sandy and 28.53" with Irene....Expecting to hit around 28.75" tomorrow.

what about the superstorm 1993 i'm positive it had a low pressure  like the ones you mentioned..

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Roundy plots do not support the gfs thinking. 

gfs has been really terrible of late with it's snow predictions reminds me of the old nam...

40 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Remember those days when you had to walk into the street because the sidewalks were covered with knee high deep snow.

 

i remember jan 23 2016 knee deep snow...only 4 years ago...

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This winter has been really active but the lack of blocking really hurt our chances. Imagine if we had a negative NAO with all the storms we had.

Wow

and i imagine if i was 7 feet tall i would be a basketball star....

i remember as a kid we would have at least 5 days under 10 degrees in either december or january for lows now we have gone many winters recently where not even one time did we have a low of 10 degrees ...

40 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

The thing that amazes me is the lack of cold highs.  January should "always" have some days where highs lock in the 20's, especially in NW Jersey.  It's like the opposite of summer where we don't have crazy highs but warm lows.

we had i think one in december and one earlier this month i think highs were in the 20;s.

Just now, Snow88 said:

What a boring and shitty winter this has been. I usually pull a few all nighters during the winter. 

 

Not even 1 so far this winter

i been tracking west coast winter this season at least something to watch unlike on the east coast...

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

In thIs crappy winter this weenie map is our desperate attempt to satisfy our inner child. How low we have sunk. 

well 2015=2016 winter was crappy then came the big blizzard

i already have given up on winter .. but i do expect a cold wet spring into june...

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

2006 was NYC's second largest snowfall. Didn't that happen in Feb and not March?

february but some discrepency in snow totals the park got a lot more then surrounding areas even in manhattan got way less..