madwx

around 3" here, maybe a few tenths more tonight as the system winds down.   the main defo band set up a bit to the south of model guidance so we were on the low end of totals

if you get enough forcing/upward motion to tap into the DGZ then you get really good rates, otherwise it's very blah.  We'll get about 3-4 more hours of better forcing here through 7-8 PM, though we may end up just on the northern edge of things

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

way too much NAM talk in this thread.

ICON gives me 12.3" this weekend

Rates really plummet when we’re not in one of the bands. Even saw the sun peeking through the clouds for a bit

Just now, Powerball said:

 

Isn't that a model projection for the next 10 days?

The tweet was an image of temperature departures in January...

I know, just showing that the continuing pattern of the US being the cold outlier in the whole world

13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

Lol at the US South standing out as the cool spot...

one of these areas is not like the others

flake size definitely improved over this transient band moving in from the southwest, should hit a lull though for the rest of the afternoon shortly

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Euro running late or am I just off with the times it runs/dst?

yes, something wrong with the data flow.  https://x.com/CoDWXData/status/1889714294062776541

raods and sidewalks are covered now but the grass is still showing.  definitely a bit of a north south gradient in the Madison area

why not, lets roll with the GFS on this one.  12" total with the WAA and then defo a day later

DVN had a pretty funny situation this morning, Winter Storm Warning for 3-5 inches while the Winter Weather Advisory was for 4-6 inches

Interesting evolution. We get hit with the lead shortwave/WAA on Friday and then are shut out the rest of the weekend 

4.5” final call. Let’s stack some dendrites tomorrow

12z GFS holding serve with its more southerly path

Going to end with about a half inch here. Ground is mostly white

18 hours ago, madwx said:

BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021.  Stay tuned!

Update: they haven't posted a video today so not sure if they've considered adding 1899 as an analogue

Have some blowing dust in the farm fields by my house. Pretty unusual for February 

BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021.  Stay tuned!

1 hour ago, nvck said:

NAM3 is definitely an outlier in SW ohio, selling widespread 0.1-0.15", but idk if anyone's noticed that it's been way colder than other models these past few weeks. Like, it's got KLUK with a high of 42 on thursday, and the model avg is 50, with HRRR and NBM higher than that.

NAM and NAM3km always underdo temps in the winter and early spring.  Especially in dry weather.  They don’t mix the boundary layer enough and seem to overcompensate for snow cover too

starting to see some trends for the month of Feb.  People who know more can expand and correct me.  

There will be some high latitude blocking that will give the Polar Vortex a jolt in about a week.  Alongside a -AO/-NAO we will likely get a longwave trough in the E/C US. With increased warmth to the SE there will be storms tracking along the baroclinic zone which should give some chances of snow.  The SE ridge will not be very strong though, so I wouldn't expect major storms tracking through our region.   What will be likely though is below normal temps from about 2/10-2/24.   

At this time it's not guaranteed that we will have a SSW or have a split polar vortex, in fact there are signs that the disruption will be short lived and the PV will bounce back to strong levels.  This means that the cold and blocking would not be favored to last into the month of March.

Madison tied for the driest January on record with 0.10”.  Also the late month warm up got us to +0.2 F over average

13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Alright, after I post this I'm gonna stay off the internet for the next 15 days, and assume that what is on the map pic below will in fact happen when we get there.  

 

 

See you under the defo band

Strong north winds on a late January afternoon and the temps are in the mid 40s.  
 

These subtle things are the surest signs to me that the baseline has changed

up to 57 at least.  broke the daily record by 10 degrees.   only 1 off of the monthly record so may have tied that,  will have to see the daily climate summary come in

looking like we'll break the record high on Thursday.  it's 47 and the point has us in the low 50s