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wawarriors4

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    Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: 
    Latest from LWX: 

PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE  
IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST  
MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE   
GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C  
PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW   
ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST.  
  
STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO  
GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO  
MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.  
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4  
INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO   
ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND  
HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE  
FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION,   
SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL,  
THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN   
UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN   
AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO   
LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES.   
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE   
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR   
WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.   
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME. 

    Boo on the part about mid-level saturation around FXBG, but it all seems reasonable. Maybe we’ll get lucky.

    Jan 15-16 Storm Thread 3: Obs and Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, H2O said:

    Just not doing much here.  Radar keeps showing very light returns to my SW.  I know I'm being impatient but just stinks to have hours of snow, no accums and people already reporting SN and roads pummeled.  

     

    Guess the silver lining is that it IS snowing.  

    Yeah, feel the same way down here around Fredericksburg.

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