Carvers Gap
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Posts posted by Carvers Gap
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I reactivated my WxBell account after a brief hiatus. LR seasonal outlooks are not showing a torch quite yet which is contrary to my thought process. Now, the warm spring fits La Nina along with BN rainfall. Next winter looks like a torch...no easy way to put it, but that is a long way off and things will likely change. That said, this summer doesn't look as warm as I thought. HOWEVER, if the BN rainfall continues(check regional airport to see if that applies to you or just look out the window)....heat will likely build into those areas.
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Areas of frost possible tonight.
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I do think for my winter ideas (24-25'), I am going to use IO forecasts as part of the overall equation, and give it fairly heavy weight. It has been driving the MJO during recent winters. IO/MJ, ENSO, and PDO will have the heaviest weight. NAO will have some weight, but it is nearly impossible to predict at this range.
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I haven't looked at a forecast re: the IO this winter...so know that before reading these IO posts. The positive phase should peak during late fall according to this article. However, with La Nina in place, it does appear that having a positive IO and a La Nina is wrinkle that maybe I wasn't expecting. The positive IO(if it holds into our winter) would potentially suppress the warmer phases of the MJO signal. Now, my guess would be that area warms back up right as our winter hits. I do think that does raise the potential for a cooler last half of November and a cold start to winter. Then, as the IO flips negative, we get very warm in eastern NA.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole
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An interesting read about Australia's upcoming winter - of course not ours as the hemispheres are completely different. There are some good nuggets about the positive IO and La Nina which might be a rare(?) combination according to the article. I don't remember that being a rare combo, but that is interesting if true.
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1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:
With all the cicadas thrown in
Sadly, no cicadas here IMBY. They bring up huge fish.
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When we see it get hot in April, look out. Looking like a potentially VERY hot summer on tap - starts early and ends late. I think we are looking at May to mid-October w/ AN temps. Hopefully some cooler weeks thrown in to buffer what could be a scorcher.
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16 hours ago, Matthew70 said:
Not wx related but I saw my first red salamander today here in Smyrna. I thought it was a lizard till I researched what it was. Unusual to have them in this area from what I read. Guess they are expanding their presence.
If we have a good winter @Holston_River_Rambler, the red salamander is the key.
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I would guess we have had gusts well over 40mph.
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Incredibly windy today.
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In looking at the ENSO forecast for next winter (growing chances of a strong super Nina...maybe extreme), I think the chances for winter weather are going to be front end, and then potential torch after that. The SER is very likely going to be a problem. The only silver lining, this may be so strong...there might be few analogs that actually match it. The PDO is forecast to remain negative....very strong warm signals paired for January and February. We will have to have a very strong -NAO(tough to predict in advance) to counter what could be an MJO that will park itself in 4-5-6 w/ cold water over regions 8-1. I think the Mountain West is set to score a massive winter.
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Looks like maybe two more trough amplifications in the East. This has "late freeze" written all over it for gardeners who are going to try to plan early. This just seems like one of those patterns that stays very warm for several days/weeks and then flips crazy cold for 2-3 days.
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Saw some social media posts (4/4) for Roan Mountain. Looks like the first bald had maybe 3-4" of snow. It is nearly impossible to tell the exact amount from a photo, but the wind also moved a lot of the snow around. Just based on the reports from LeConte, that amount sounds about right. It has fell like winter for the past few days. Looks like we are back to spring like temps next week, though!
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We had sleet here a minute ago. RadarScope has frozen precip over portions of the TRI region.
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Reports of light snow in Wise and Tazewll, VA, at this hour.
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Winter Weather Advisories are posted for the Apps.
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Tornado Warning TNC013-151-022230- /O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0002.240402T2144Z-240402T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Morristown TN 544 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Campbell County in east Tennessee... Southeastern Scott County in east Tennessee... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 543 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Huntsville, or 11 miles southeast of Oneida, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Campbell and southeastern Scott Counties, including the following locations... Jellico, Elk Valley, Indian Mountain State Park, Fincastle, Royal Blue, White Oak, Norma, and Caryville. This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 138 and 161. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. -
Any thoughts on the recent update by MRX?
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Snow flurries/showers on my point and click for Thursday....no joke.
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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:
Crazy is that we actually get an SSW. A major one at that and that doesn't change the weather pattern at all. Especially with it rotating backwards.... Strange to read.
I bet we see some changes w/ that set-up. I have no idea what!
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The PV is spinning in the opposite direction of normal.
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What a beautiful day.
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The 12z GFS has been cooking something up around 240...GEM has that to some extent. Cold shot w/ various waves. Holston is on top of it as usual! Worth watching at least for the mountains of E TN.
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1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:
Yeah, mentioned that in a post above. Actually killed the Leaves on the Trees. May 2007.
That is the year. I must have not been reading closely!!! Once we get over 50, all posts look new anyway! LOL j/k - sorta not. I don't know that we actually got full leaf coverage that year in NE TN. The trough looks over the eastern half of the country on the 12z GFS. The main axis looks over the NE, and fairly cool/progressive here. If that thing were to buckle, look out....
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March/ Spring mid-long range
in Tennessee Valley
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In NE TN, most La Nina patterns are dry. With the IO and Nina potentially being out of sync, I am not sure what that yields in terms of precip here. It seems like some La Nina patterns have been soakers here, but lately, more dry. I do think the pattern might be much more variable than I had originally thought re: summer. I do think a good chunk of fall and winter will be much AN in terms of temps. I would suspect fall turns very dry. La Nina across our forum can produce quite different results.