Indystorm

I see in the watch description that tops could get to 60,000 feet. Quite respectable. I do think the storm exploding se of KC might be the one to watch at present.

80% chance of an upcoming watch shortly for the KS/MO border region per SPC. 85/74 KC 94/67 Topeka

I was thinking of saying this but afraid I'd get slammed. Better you than me. Good luck to all chasers out there in that time period!

Good research, Quincy, on your tornado forecast. I suppose it is always more difficult to forecast trends with tornadoes than what a hurricane season might look like as Dr. Gray at Colorado State and others have done well in advance. My concern for May at least with recent model runs is the apparent lack of a strong jet stream in the CONUS. That, of course, can change.

EF 4's in Harrisburg and Henryville that early in the season that far north surprised me, but they were only a prelude to a record setting March temp wise.

I wish I could give you a Pulitzer prize for web journalism for this historic thread for your outstanding documentation of this event from its inception through ongoing recovery.

Glad you made the transition OK Baroclinic Instability. Looking forward to your reports this winter. Tom Skilling loves to take Alaska vacations and talks frequently about it on WGN weather. Continue to drop in the Plains and Lakes forums when things get interesting down here. We certainly appreciate your expertise.

These commemorative articles and postings are informative and hopefully cathartic,JoMo. It is truly hard to believe that it has been a year and you have done a magnificent job preserving this record for posterity.

It is amazing to re-read this thread and so educational, particularly wrt model differences and what actually played out. I guess I was most surprised by the NAM and GFS catching the morning convection while the RUC totally missed it.

Sure beats the measly winter we had in much of the Midwest this past season. Dramatic early spring warmup and now freeze warnings that have orchard fruit growers in particular concern for apples and cherries in temps drop to 27 or 28 for awhile.

A medical team from the destroyed Mercy St. John's Hospital in Joplin is sharing their experiences here in my Michiana neck of the woods at South Bend Memorial Hospital and at a conference at Notre Dame. Good to learn disaster preparedness procedures for hospitals from those who were directly impacted. Good coverage of their visit by our local news media, especially since the recent tornados in Henryville IN and Dexter MI.

A blessed New Year to you and all those in Joplin. Glad that the church response went so well. Many religious denominations have well structured and experienced relief organizations. Glad you got your personal tornado shelter that exceeds requirements. Living in the Dunlap area of Elkhart with the 1965 Palm Sunday disaster right here I know many people who were affected as victims or in search and rescue. Thanks for all the updates.

JoMo, this is certainly an historic thread and thanks for all your contributions. One thing I was wondering. Did the tornado hit or miss many hotel/motel complexes along its path through the area? I don't remember reading too much about that, mainly St. John's, the schools, homes, and retail.

Birmingham mentions they had the foremost national expert in storm damage assessment to assist their team in determining the strength of the Hackleburg storm. That would have to be Tim Marshall IMHO.

I honestly never thought I would see a death toll from tornadic activity that high again in our day and age. But with so many intense tornadoes churning into densely populated areas it is perhaps almost inevitable even when warnings are timely, heard, and responded to by the general public. Community shelters for mobile home parks and public housing projects could help. I think SPC and NWS forecasters did a terrific job along with local media. I remember in late winter you thought this was going to be a very rough season for various scientific reasons, and I shudder to think we are just now entering May.

Good luck tomorrow Fred. I have meetings in Indpls. Wed. and Thursday and will be away from a computer grinding my teeth until I get back to the hotel to see TWC and news media reports of what's been happening.

Yes, and RUC also has a 110-130 knot 300 mb jet rounding the base of the trough in the afternoon in the warm sector. Not good.

That's 30 EF 4 and 6 EF 5...very tough record to reach.

The Superoutbreak got its name because it is one of a kind and rarely invites comparison. However, I believe the progged low pressure on the NAM for tomorrow if it verifies is lower than the pressure of the system with the superoutbreak for what it's worth.

From this evening IND AFD with respect to Wed. system... VARIANCE STILL EXISTS IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS FINAL SYSTEM...WITH THE ENSEMBLES CONVERGING ON A TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH WESTERN INDIANA ON THE WESTERN END...TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO ON THE EASTERN END. APPEARS THERE MAY BE STRONG DEEP SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH GOOD ALIGNMENT OF THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JETS POSSIBLE...SO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

I think a met commented earlier that it is very rare to see such intensity on a NAM precip display such as this.

Excerpt from Memphis AFD for Monday-Wed, with expectation of more negatively tilted trough TOMORROW EXPECT A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AS A TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS NOW HAVE THIS TROUGH MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS WHERE PW`S WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S WILL PRODUCE CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES WILL RANGE FROM -6 TO -8 DEGREES. LOW AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND SUPER CELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY REPLENISHING THE SUPPLY OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...BUT LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN LESS OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR OUTBREAK. THIS STORM WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEMS I HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREDIBLE 0-3KM SRH VALUES OVER 1500M/S2 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MORE REALISTIC VALUES AROUND 300-600 DURING THE DAY. MODELS ALSO NOW FEATURE A 80KT LLJ CENTERED OVER MEMPHIS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS..RUN BUT IT IS STILL VERY AMPLIFIED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY RESULTING IN LONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG LONG TRACKED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE ALL POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

Well< Mac, I have relatives both dead and alive from Anna ne to Marion area. Have been to CAPE many times so I have a strong interest in far southern IL. at this time of year weatherwise especially.

Use this map only as a rough guide for Monday evening and watch how parameters unfold as we get closer to the event, Mac.