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Indystorm

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Everything posted by Indystorm

  1. Polygon warnings are not being displayed on NWS radars. HHave had this issue before. Not good when tornadic cells might be headed your way.
  2. As Thundersnow posted the current parameters look very favorable for one of the best set ups we have yet seen this year if they come to fruition. Any analog mentioning 5/3/99 certainly has my attention.
  3. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 383... VALID 020052Z - 020215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 383 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST OVER NWRN THROUGH WCNTRL MO THROUGH 02Z...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO EXTREME ERN KS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PERSIST FROM JUST SE OF KANSAS CITY EWD THROUGH NCNTRL MO. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW IN NERN KS THEN SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL KS. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN ARK THROUGH SWRN MO INTO SERN KS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND WAS SAMPLED BY SPRINGFIELD MO 00Z RAOB INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES...3400 J/KG MLCAPE...250 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STORMS REMAIN PRIMARILY DISCRETE. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS COLD POOLS MERGE AND THE SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUPPORTING A SWD MOVING...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME ERN KS. ..DIAL.. 07/02/2015
  4. Effective tor of 6 in west central MO south of the tor warned cell.
  5. I see in the watch description that tops could get to 60,000 feet. Quite respectable. I do think the storm exploding se of KC might be the one to watch at present.
  6. 80% chance of an upcoming watch shortly for the KS/MO border region per SPC. 85/74 KC 94/67 Topeka
  7. I was thinking of saying this but afraid I'd get slammed. Better you than me. Good luck to all chasers out there in that time period!
  8. Good research, Quincy, on your tornado forecast. I suppose it is always more difficult to forecast trends with tornadoes than what a hurricane season might look like as Dr. Gray at Colorado State and others have done well in advance. My concern for May at least with recent model runs is the apparent lack of a strong jet stream in the CONUS. That, of course, can change.
  9. EF 4's in Harrisburg and Henryville that early in the season that far north surprised me, but they were only a prelude to a record setting March temp wise.
  10. I wish I could give you a Pulitzer prize for web journalism for this historic thread for your outstanding documentation of this event from its inception through ongoing recovery.
  11. Glad you made the transition OK Baroclinic Instability. Looking forward to your reports this winter. Tom Skilling loves to take Alaska vacations and talks frequently about it on WGN weather. Continue to drop in the Plains and Lakes forums when things get interesting down here. We certainly appreciate your expertise.
  12. These commemorative articles and postings are informative and hopefully cathartic,JoMo. It is truly hard to believe that it has been a year and you have done a magnificent job preserving this record for posterity.
  13. It is amazing to re-read this thread and so educational, particularly wrt model differences and what actually played out. I guess I was most surprised by the NAM and GFS catching the morning convection while the RUC totally missed it.
  14. Sure beats the measly winter we had in much of the Midwest this past season. Dramatic early spring warmup and now freeze warnings that have orchard fruit growers in particular concern for apples and cherries in temps drop to 27 or 28 for awhile.
  15. A medical team from the destroyed Mercy St. John's Hospital in Joplin is sharing their experiences here in my Michiana neck of the woods at South Bend Memorial Hospital and at a conference at Notre Dame. Good to learn disaster preparedness procedures for hospitals from those who were directly impacted. Good coverage of their visit by our local news media, especially since the recent tornados in Henryville IN and Dexter MI.
  16. A blessed New Year to you and all those in Joplin. Glad that the church response went so well. Many religious denominations have well structured and experienced relief organizations. Glad you got your personal tornado shelter that exceeds requirements. Living in the Dunlap area of Elkhart with the 1965 Palm Sunday disaster right here I know many people who were affected as victims or in search and rescue. Thanks for all the updates.
  17. JoMo, this is certainly an historic thread and thanks for all your contributions. One thing I was wondering. Did the tornado hit or miss many hotel/motel complexes along its path through the area? I don't remember reading too much about that, mainly St. John's, the schools, homes, and retail.
  18. Birmingham mentions they had the foremost national expert in storm damage assessment to assist their team in determining the strength of the Hackleburg storm. That would have to be Tim Marshall IMHO.
  19. I honestly never thought I would see a death toll from tornadic activity that high again in our day and age. But with so many intense tornadoes churning into densely populated areas it is perhaps almost inevitable even when warnings are timely, heard, and responded to by the general public. Community shelters for mobile home parks and public housing projects could help. I think SPC and NWS forecasters did a terrific job along with local media. I remember in late winter you thought this was going to be a very rough season for various scientific reasons, and I shudder to think we are just now entering May.
  20. Good luck tomorrow Fred. I have meetings in Indpls. Wed. and Thursday and will be away from a computer grinding my teeth until I get back to the hotel to see TWC and news media reports of what's been happening.
  21. Yes, and RUC also has a 110-130 knot 300 mb jet rounding the base of the trough in the afternoon in the warm sector. Not good.
  22. That's 30 EF 4 and 6 EF 5...very tough record to reach.
  23. The Superoutbreak got its name because it is one of a kind and rarely invites comparison. However, I believe the progged low pressure on the NAM for tomorrow if it verifies is lower than the pressure of the system with the superoutbreak for what it's worth.
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