AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Looks like a La Nina making. I doubt anything real could develop in this environment. 

^Alaska warming is the default. Not as seasonal as you think. 

What a shift in models away from El Nino in the last 2-3 weeks.

Look at this, El Nino until recently. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png[/img]

After this, I can't imagine much more named storms unless a La Nina develops (we are in nowhere land). 

I don't know, it would be hard to bet against a shorter term La Nina, at least in Nino 3. The subsurface warmer pool will push a cold wave to the surface in Nino 1.2 and 3 for at least the next month. 

I doubt if the -NAO verifies the EC ridge will dominate. 

Well, Winter is breaking into the West and Rocky Mountains. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

It looks like it's going to be another one of these type of years.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

11 hours ago, Windspeed said:

TD10 is getting its act together. Strong convection going up around the center. Evident banding forming. Probably looking at Jerry in short order, but this may take off rather rapidly tomorrow.

Not an El Nino storm.. wonder if it will hold, or if it's just a blip. 

Here comes the La Nina.

My prediction is developing La Nina. 

40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year.

You'd always see this ENSO configuration in a generally warm Earth because of land/mountain torque.. Any warmer and it's biased El Nino (Nino 1.2 and 3 are cold). 

Hard to imagine the weekly of Nino 1.2 or 3 doesn't hit -1.0 in the coming weeks/months.. 

Just like everything, it's averaging out in time. Big time -AO develops as soon as the ice accretion starts. 

Looking at medium/long range models, it's really hard for a +PNA to form. Skewed toward -PDO, like we've seen 2014-2019 in the long wavelength season. The Aleutian High becomes a block in about September and the same is holding true this year. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

I mention this because we had +PNA all year up until about 7-10 days ago. This -PDO is a pattern that will hold. 

Another dry winter for the West coast...

I wonder how it would be if people lived in Greenland?
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

..       That's why.. oh, space weather was a +25% research and I stopped it for whatever reason. 

I think the Atlnatic SST index NAO index argues for a -NAO higher frequency. 

Not a Winter blizzard pattern

Just what you might expect going through September. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html

ENSO Subsurface getting more La Nina like for an active October, possibly. it will take a pattern change... 

ENSO dominates again. 2019. 

To boot, we have La Nina wavelengths

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Pretty bulllish La Nina sign

lol.. loop doesn't work. government blocked the site for a while anyway

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&loop=yes

Do you ever wonder what this is

How about the coming +PNA/GOA Low on models days 14-15.