CIK62

Your theory works if we are not chasing a moving target. If anything, a shorter time frame like 20 years, updated every other year should be shown along side the longest recording period available----1869 onward, in order to view the change or at least the current most trend. What has happened here is what would happen if you were rolling fair dice and suddenly someone substituted loaded dice. The number 7 would be skewed upward. The earlier collected data would look to be in error. Sounds like our temperatures and precipitation to me. More snow falls now because precipitation has increased 15% since the mid 1960's, even using the 5 year drought just before that time means little, it is nothing but a small echo to the average. In the winter, till NYC warms too much, this means more snow.

Gotta love that CFS long range. It has a White Christmas for 10 days even before Christmas morning gets here---and long after it. Nice work you sweet, sweet Elves. lol. Basically it was always showing a White Christmas, but this is the best yet.

Next 45 days back up to +3/4degs. CFS has favorable teleconnections with a -NAO, -AO and a PNA playing catch up, going + in two weeks. So there is still hope here. Everything else looks ugly over the next 4 months as before, not including Nov., whose last known whereabouts was AN of course.

Next 45 days down to Normal now, but monthlies show no relief till April/May when they go Normal. This represents no change yet. Then all Blues disappear, and it is "BurnBabyBurnTime".

I get 29" as the 30 year average for NYC. These experts are telling you the average is 25," so their claims of an above average snowy winter looks right when we terminate with the real average of 29"+, especially prevalent in recent years.

With a final result of +7.2degs. for Oct., I estimate that Nov. only needs to be +3.5degs. for us to have the warmest Fall ever in NYC. In addition, during the last 50-day period, there were just 5 BN days. It must be 26 of the last 31 months that have been above normal now. No BN month is predicted anytime soon to boot. CFS gets us close in April/May before zooming again. Next BN month is going to be an accident, a mere atmospheric after-thought and miscue. btw: If those 5 BN days had occurred as a cluster, it would not even had made it to -3degs.

CFS is bloody red for the next 6 weeks. If so we are going to wind up with a three month period that is +6degs. or +7degs. AN. Sept. 13 --- Dec. 15 gone. RIP Funny thing is with Oct. now Number 1, we only knock the average monthly high record down by less than a year. Somewhere under 30 years. Previous record was only 10 years old. The real target is Jan,. which is 85 years old. CFS has a one track mind till April, May---as I mentioned before.

Next 45 days look like a furnace around here. Snowballs will have to be formed from hot lava. No snow cover up here till Jan. 9th. Winter will probably have some short intense cold periods. We will be lucky with 30 day slices that are 17AN/13BN. And of course the CFS goes normal or better just in time for April and May. Anyone have any long range data that differs from this---come forth now. So far my area has nearly 2" using station in (Sheepshead Bay) Winds topped so far at 21mph. Pressure 29.37"

The CFS for the next 45 days is ugly. Maybe +7degs. Eating Thanksgiving turkey on a patio with the sun shade out is not Thanksgiving. Having to be inside a giant meat locker refrigerator just to make a simple snowball out to Dec. 10 is outrageous. Forget about the warmest Fall ever, at this rate in 30 days it will be talk of the warmest year ever. EPO tries to save it all from a thermal runaway, finally giving up the ghost along with the other indexes (which are never right after the next few days)as we start Dec., when egg frying on the streets should be become possible. And this is brought to you by the EURO.

Buoy 44025 back to a prediction of 9' seas.

Not at all too early to think about the warmest Fall ever (SON). If Oct. finishes near +7.5degs. and is combined with Sept.'s +2.5degs., I estimate Nov. need only be about +3degs. to set a new Fall warmth record. Record now [SON} is 61.8degs.--- in 2015. Normal for [SON] is 57.5degs. Difference to set a new record would thus be +4.4degs. Sept. contributes 0.82, Oct. (estimated) will contribute 2.60, and Nov. would be contributing about 1.00, so it needs to end up near +3.0degs. or better.

Back on earth now........... This is how the NWS/NOAA intend to handle a new Sandy: http://www.weather.gov/okx/HurricaneSandy5Year

Bitcoin will drop to ZERO but the Blockchain Technology will remain. Central Banks will not allow it. It goes to 0 since it has no PlungeProtectionTeam to save it, like stocks. Those who started it and remain anonymous have their Billions (your thousands) and have left the stage. Ditto for those ICO's Imagine selling a course for 50 bucks while claiming you are swimming in Ten's of millions.!?

Next 6 months still all above normal virtually everywhere. Canada gets BN before year ends, but it never holds south of border. Our break comes April and May when we go normal. Sandblasting heat returns for June.

Next 45 days down to NORMAL again on CFS. But will it hold?

Ran the CFS for its full 2040 hours and never saw it show a cold wave or a thrust south to us which held. Winter here is going to be a hit/run operation. No chance at 32 till 11/13-20 period which would be normal, but I am a liar. Even when a low of 32 is normal, it is a struggle here. Coldest was Jan. 5, run ends Jan. 14. Let's forget the specifics---just pointing out that there was no long lasting invasion of BN air. 5400THK rarely went south of us.

EURO 7-day avgs. of the ensemble 500mb heights never run BN here for the 46 days. November will closer to normal than Oct., but AN I think.

Southern Ireland and southern UK getting ready to battle 40' seas right now.

I am confused. Did the CANSIPS really show this for October, with a forecast made on Oct. 01!?

CPC is AN for every 3-month period around here forever-more. Quote the raven 'forevermore'. Closest to normal in the spring.

What would you suggest? Just listened to KWO-35 and it was 60-72 degress times 7. Look when the surface data for the whole earth are in each month, season or year---most of the temperate areas (within 60degs. of equator) come in normal or above anyway. The dice are loaded against BN in any given spot and the models are rolling fair dice. Who do you think will win?

Now back to matters that matter. The CVSv2 is at +5degs. for the next 45 days.

There is no such thing as a 'current price' for BitCoin. 5308 now. Lol What is now? How much for a Red Tulip Bulb, is what you want to know, anyway.

Wow. S.Ireland and S.UK get smashed again in 4 days.

CFSv2 down to (2degs. BN) on next 45-day forecast---with some scary mid-month cold. This is 8 degrees less than it showed a week ago for the next 45. Meanwhile down to 50degs. here right now and maybe this will seem balmy in 30 days. First 40-something reading by midnite, I guess.