Ozarkwx

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Everything posted by Ozarkwx

  1. Tulsa has new briefing out. http://ht.ly/i1Z3g Hint: Don't get too excited. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MOST IMPORTANTLY...PAWNEE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA...HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD WARNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH PRECIP TYPES WEST OF THE AREA...INDICATE A LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WESTERN AREAS OF OSAGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...ROBBING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO THE AREA MOST AFFECTED BY THE DRY SLOT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF EITHER LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME PERIODS AFFECTED. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE SNOW AMOUNTS TOO MUCH DESPITE THE DRIZZLE INCLUSION...AS THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD WITH THE WRAP AROUND WHERE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE. AS A RESULT...NO OTHER HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MOST IMPORTANTLY...PAWNEE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA...HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD WARNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH PRECIP TYPES WEST OF THE AREA...INDICATE A LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WESTERN AREAS OF OSAGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...ROBBING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO THE AREA MOST AFFECTED BY THE DRY SLOT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF EITHER LIGHT SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME PERIODS AFFECTED. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE SNOW AMOUNTS TOO MUCH DESPITE THE DRIZZLE INCLUSION...AS THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD WITH THE WRAP AROUND WHERE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE. AS A RESULT...NO OTHER HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
  2. These are the chances for 1" overnight Monday. Not very robust for most of us, lol. I would not totally give up if you are near I-44 just yet. Amber, NW and JoMo you may be singing a different tune by late Monday. However, Eureka Springs kids should still be planning to do their homework on Monday night.
  3. Not too much of anything here, although enough ice to make the roads a mess. The lightning was pretty cool and a few brief ZR downpours were too. I think Waterboy and I have somehow managed to end up with least amounts on every opportunity this season. These things tend to even out, but it is odd when FSM and even LZK repeatedly get snow and we don't, lol.
  4. How much ice would you say has accumulated so far?
  5. I think it means the warm air transport around 5000' + is really strong, putting the kibosh on snow for sure. This would theoretically translate to freezing rain or rain for Joplin, depending on the surface temperatures. How did I do JoMo?
  6. Uh-oh. Especially not liking the wind with this. Nonetheless, hopefully with all the trees that got pruned in 2009 this won't be nearly so bad, er I hope.. The other factor is the local electric utility has been extremely aggressive in clearing trees away from the lines in the past 3 years. Some would say excessively so. At least it will warm up fairly rapidly afterward, which it did not after 2009 prolonging the tree snapping and making travel out of dark homes very difficult.
  7. Well at least we got more snow than somebody - a solid 1/4" piled up here, which I only knew because I looked in the middle of the night - just before sunrise it was "largely" melted.
  8. Enough to give a sugar sprinkle of snow on the grass.....
  9. As much as everyone would like snow here, having any precipitation in any form is quite welcome. We do not need some sort of multi year drought event. Quick drop from 40 to 36 in the aftermath of a few light showers. Still I am having trouble believing we could actually get to the top end of Tulsa's 1-3".
  10. Sure seems like it is time to let go of the pipe dream of a good storm. That might actually help us get one, lol. Sort of like when you can't sleep and finally give up, and then fall asleep right after that. In any case, you can enjoy vicariously the action in the NE.
  11. So it turns out we had a presumed tornado about a mile from my house at around 4pm yesterday. Here is a snippet from our neighbor's description on FB: Tornado a little to close for comfort. Lucky no damage here but a few trees on the hill. Neighbors on the hill not so lucky but could have been so much worse. The tornado came within 10 or 15 feet of their homes. They lost barns, cattle, fence and sheds. As far as I know they are all safe. Rex took off to help find cattle and fix fence at Jeff's farm. He is still looking for cattle and has to get the fence back up to keep them in. Not sure if he lost hay. You can't even tell there was a barn there. No trusses, no sign of the metal roof as far as the eye can see. Crazy.
  12. Not quite to 1.5" yet, but still raining. Nice to see (and hear) the waterfalls running again this eveing
  13. As much as that sucks, it is supposed to suck (to a point anyway) in order to get back to full strength. One of my good friends is a PT and I had rather painful rotator cuff injury (non-surgical), but even then she inflicted still more pain, almost mocking in the process (But I got better faster with the painful approach) Waterboy good luck with your surgery. Maybe you will have time to keep an extra close watch on the end of the month threat for us. Early February is definitely a sweet spot for those systems coming out of the 4 Corners region to lay down a swath of snow somewhere in the southern plains. It would be really cool if we started getting a stream of tropical Pacific moisture slamming into the SW, and we start hearing the phrase "Pineapple Express" again.
  14. Well we are only in the third quarter of the season, and we are getting enough cold air this year, just lacking moisture. I think we should have a few more chances and we may just connect on something yet. On the other hand, now is probably not the time to go buy a snow blower. Doug updated his blog with a 2 month forecast. He is not giving up.
  15. A co-worker of mine drove down to Jasper, AR i(25 miles south of Harrison n a 2WD work van late this morning and found it to be snowing and the roads snow covered and treacherous enough to pull over and wait for the sun to start melting the roads. I did not know he was headed that way, and he was totally caught off guard. Apparently can't post a facebook pic here, but here is a cool photo from near Ozark today. SNOW!
  16. Apparently the HPC is thinking ice as well for Saturday night - Sunday.
  17. There is almost always some fantasy fun going on with the models this time of year. DGEX seems like it is the source more often than not, lol. Hope does spring eternal. BTW got to see the snow field going from XNA to DFW the day after the storm. Pretty interesting. The snow was plainly visible approaching the Arkansas River but faded out for the most part after about 120 miles(?) then reappeared approaching the DFW metroplex. Someone told me this was their first White Christmas in 37 years.
  18. Not a flake here. That dry air is hanging very tough even this far south and east. Looking at the radar loop is appears the pinwheeling bands are running into a wall as they rotate in this direction. (so far) Dewpoint is 24 and air temp is 30. DP has not budged all day.
  19. Busting a forecast is never good, but busting the freaking Christmas forecast, ouch. On the other hand, if you are a kid in Hot Springs, AR or Tunica, MS things are definitely looking up for that once in a childhood white Christmas.
  20. It is situations like this that makes weather a lot of fun. Nonetheless, I don't think we can make the critical fine tune adjustments on the storm track until the 12Z RAOBS are ingested into the models. Even the vaunted EC can only do so much when the storm is incompletely sampled.
  21. At this rate will the NAM put AR into the warm sector, lol? Anyway,It certainly is a stretch to believe the NAM when it stands alone, BUT....Remember the "Highway 412" snow of February 2011 (I think) where the NAM stood alone against the model world and won? All along AR 412 between Siloam and well east into Newton County amounts were 20+".
  22. This NAM has got to be considered a clown map. What is that 2'+ over XNA?
  23. I've got a bad feeling about one. Bad in the sense the one day I really really don't want it to snow - the 26th when I leave for AZ from XNA - is looking more plausible. Reminds of my my last AZ trip which took off on Christmas eve 2010, just missing the snow.
  24. Nice write up by a snow loving TV met on 40/29 TV in Fayetteville. Anybody know Darby Bybee? We should try and get him to participate with all you snow addicts hounds here.