Met1985

Also looking at the mid to long range EURO things really dont look bad at all. 

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

idk guys the Euro just isn't having it

Look at what Griteater poster in the storm thread. 

7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Maybe I’m wrong but this looks like especially on the NAM that it will be flowing in mostly from the SE to the NE

I think once the system gets east of the apps the Lee side may have a better flow.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

yep I'm screwed with these type of setups unless overrunning  overperforms 

Yeah you are right unless is comes in more from the south.

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is very blah for the leeside areas.. Shows some downsloping and very little snow

The leeside of the mountains are going to get downsloped big time the way the precipitation is coming in. It will drastically cut down totals.

14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Wow even the 3k NAM coming on board. This is trending to a big event for mtns and foothills. 

These overrunning type events we do very well with.  If we can get the moisture in here we will get a decent snow. Im really liking the trend of the models this morning. 

Yeah this is the best run of the NAM for us. Very juiced up and nearly all snow. Also dont underestimate the upslope snow behind the system if if hits us just right. It will dump all that moisture on the favored areas behind the system. 

The 12z NAM is holding serve. Kind of starts out as a mix but quickly turns to all snow. The precipitation is much further north this run also. It really blossoms out once it gets in here.

Yeah great discussion guys. This is why I love this group and why I said yesterday that my excitement would be tempered until 18z today. We are getting into the time frame where the short range models should really be picking this up especially the multiple waves as Ward was talking about. Obviously having the EURO on board is huge but we are seeing multiple models come in with snowy solutions for us and currently that just cannot be discounted. 

Just now, wncsnow said:

Really thought last nights Euro would come around but it was dryer than grandmas biscuits 

Yeah it may not be handling the wave right but it could be onto something also. But I like that the NAM and GFS are in the same camp. Remember the models didnt handle the last little snow that well except the NAM...

Both the NAM and GFS look good for our snow chances. Today will be very telling with the models. We are off to a good start so far.

14 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

We are almost always in the best spot in the SE for snow. 

5 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

Maybe I’m stepping out of bounds but I think will do great with this event. A WSW event for all the mountains, I just know from past experiences these events usually trends better.

I like your optimism but this winter has been crap and anything can happen lol. But currently id say a 3 to 6 inch storm is not out of the question but that is all speculation at this point. Lets get through another 24 hours and see about this thing .

The 00z NAM still looking good for us. Still though a lot can happen.  Ill feel a lot better at 18z tomorrow if we are still in the drivers seat.

6 minutes ago, Hvward said:

18z NAM has precip again oriented in a great fashion for accumulating snow in WNC.

Yeah so far the NAM is looking good.  Like iv said lets get into tomorrow and start to beat the drums pretty heavy. 

We can and have done really well in overrunning type events. Seems like most every system has been juiced this season. Even the small snow event two weeks ago was a prime example. 

4 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 

Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent.

 

Yeah and the crazy thing is that all the indicies are in the wrong direction. 

Just now, Sw NC weather said:

Yeah it seems like these systems are always juicer when they get here let’s hope that holds true for this one.

Yeah especially this season that has been the norm. 

7 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system.

Yeah nothing to worry about.  Today will be some fluctuations but I fully expect the precipitation field to move north.

Yeah as mentioned this is far from being nailed down.  We have seen this year after year. A northward trend is most likely with the precipitation coverage.  We have a lot of time for things to change for better or worst. Really things should be much more clear by tomorrow afternoon. 

3 hours ago, Buckethead said:

I searched for snowfall maps from that event but only came up with badly pixelated maps.  It looks like most of WNC picked up half a foot from that with Mt. Mitchell picking up 25". 

You have grabbed my attention, Hunter. 

Yeah as Franklin mentioned that was a great storm for about all the mountains.  Most picked up a foot to about a foot and a half then it got cold and snowed again two days later. The snow stayed around for about 2 weeks.

We actually have some tiny flakes flying currently with a temp of 36.

33 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Down to 34 here already.  It really cooled down this afternoon. 

Yeah it did big time. The wind really picked up also. 

Temp dropping off here. Down to 44 degrees with lows clouds rolling back in.

14 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

The what?  It's pouring here.

11 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

how are you so lucky? Just started raining again lol.

In other news I've booked a cruise on March 7th, that might be my next chance to actually have a non rain day, or at least something somewhat decent.

Dang well that sucks. Yeah we have sun and clouds here in Haywood. Current temp is 58 degrees.