Met1985

At the current state we are looking at a ton of rainfall and not a snowstorm or any winter weather storm. We will see a glancing blow of cold air and that's it. The ensembles look meh and the operational models don't give any hope.

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The pattern on LR modeling is volatile w/ a lot of variability - nothing locks in.  Way more variable than what we have seen this winter due to shortening wavelengths.  Also, JB mentioned the MJO signal typically has less impact later in winter....I may have misheard or interpreted that.  

Yeah I think you are right. I think it is definitely contributing to the volatility of the models. I mean I can't remember when we had such swings on all the models from run to run.

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

JB mentioned tonight(and I know he takes some heat at times), mentioned that the switch in ENSO is possibly causing contradictory signals in LR modeling.  MJO plots are stalling in 3 which is cold in Feb(warm in Jan).   Also, if I remember correctly, El Nino climatology favors a back loaded winter w/ a mean trough in the SE.  I was expecting an all out torch on the Weeklies.  

You know I've been thinking us pretty much switching the enso state is causing the models to really go crazy. The signal is complex and off because of that. I think we are going to have a damn cold spring because if it also. 

Temp down to 24 already.  Going to be mighty cold tonight.  Also the gefs looks good from the 2nd on. Seems like we aren't punting this little chance for some winter weather currently... Am I optimistic? No. Am I pessimistic? No. I'm watching and waiting... 

Had a skiff of snow this morning with temps in the 30s all day. The forcing with this was never really there. Will be waiting for more rain this Sunday. 

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Unhappy hour model bad

 

What's the link for this please

37 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

The mountain wave has arrived. Winds are increasing dramatically the past 15 minutes and gusts approaching 60 MPH are possible even in the Valley. On a personal note, my 88 year old Mom survived the EF-3 Tornado that impacted SE Texas yesterday afternoon by getting in her bath tub just before it struck her apartment complex in Deer Park, TX. I am forever grateful for my friends and former colleagues at NWS HGX and the Houston media who got the message out ahead of time and throughout the day yesterday. So far, there has not been any deaths or significant injuries associated with the Tornado. 

Great news! I bet that was freaking scary as crap. Thank gosh for bathtubs. 

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

18z GFS says SER wins out and no one is even close to frozen/freezing precip lol. Absolute worst pattern to be in, cold tempting us nearby but a SER just making sure we get no legitimate threats so we end up with rain after rain 

Good thing it's Ensembles disagree with the operational. 

The gfs Ensembles don't agree with the operation at all. I completely understand the frustration but the Ensembles really haven't changed that much the past several runs.  Cold works in her around the 2nd through the 9th but things may teter back and fourth a bit. Take a deep breath and enjoy life.

Just now, Tyler Penland said:

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The 18z gfs operation doesn't look good either. Doesn't really make a great push of cold air in here at all. The negative epo just dumps west and the SER flexes and the trough cuts north of us. 

I will gladly punt the rest of this winter if I don't have to see this piece of junk pattern again for another decade.

Yeah same here. 

The 18z gfs operation doesn't look good either. Doesn't really make a great push of cold air in here at all. The negative epo just dumps west and the SER flexes and the trough cuts north of us. 

Not sure if it's a blip because of the supercomputer outage on the euro but wow is it ugly after this next storm and the ensembles kind of agree. The cold air is pushed back to the 4th on the 12z eps now. Again maybe a blip but this is why I have little to no faith currently in us seeking a change anytime soon that is really meaningful. 

39 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

The wind switched from wnw to sw around 330. I think that may be why.

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Yeah probably so. It's calm here in my bowl.

Just now, Buckethead said:

My temperature went from 17 at midnight to 32 at 7am here.

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That's crazy even with your snowpack... Current temp this morning is 15 degrees.  Done chilling cold with no snowpack.  

7 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

Already down to 28 at 6 PM. It's going to be a chilly night!

Yeah it's flipping freezing out especially with a bit of a breeze out.

18z gfs says lets do super cold all over again at the first of February...

18z gfs looks awesome for the northern mountains with this next system... Everyone else is sucking dust lol.

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The euro looks pathetic with this next system.  Im leaning towards the euro because it was anemic looking for today's snowfall and it was right. It beat the gfs and the NAM. The mid to long range looks really good from about February 2nd until about the 9th or 10th. On all the ensembles this range looks really good. The only problem is that it's 11 days away. We will see if this is the same song and dance bullcrap from the models.

Current temp of 29 degrees with on and off snow with a dusting.  This is more of a westerly flow. Not that great for myself but better for places like Maggie Valley. 

31 degrees with moderate snow falling. 

The 12z euro is not as enthusiastic as the American models

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18z gfs looks great for the northern mountains.

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The 18z NAM looks great for the northern mountains.

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Lets do some analysis today. This is todays snapshot of the 12z eps run today. For my variable point of the 30th of this month then 10 days out. The eps has cooled a lot since yesterday. Could be because of the current SSW that will start tomorrow in the Arctic. There is a lot of volatility on the ensembles which makes me think that the whole northern hemisphere is going to experience a big shift soon.

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6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

After the GFS's lascivious indulgence yesterday at 12z, the sinner repents and gives us our favorite February pattern! 

 

I know it is only one run, but if the trough dumps out west and fights the SE ridge, we may end up on the boundary. 

That is a very realistic and possible progression. 

Lol at least yall will make up for such a dry Fall this way. At least one positive.