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NC_hailstorm

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Posts posted by NC_hailstorm

  1. 1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

    Lol how long have you lived here? You know GSP ain't talking crap up until about 24 to 36 hours. And this is still a high bust situation. 

    Good news I have the S word in the forecast now

    Sunday

    Snow before 10am, then rain. High near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
    • Like 1
  2. 11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

     The 12Z GFS' surface low needs to adjust further south to produce widespread SE wintry precip as it has the low going across N GA. With the GFS trending stronger and further south with the H5 low, the 12Z Euro holding onto to the Gulf coast to S GA to offshore track, and the 168 12Z UKMET setup suggesting something similar had it gone out further, I think it is just a matter of time before the inferior GFS does something similar.

     Indeed, the AO and MJO for 1/13-15 are looking favorable. The PNA drops to neutral then, but I don't see that as a negative.
     
     The +NAO, indeed, is dropping from an earlier strong. However, the GEFS has it still moderate (~+0.9) 1/13-15. But as the research I posted two days ago showed, folks hoping for a big SE snow shouldn't fret about it. Why? Because in looking at big RDU snows since 1950, there was no correlation to NAO with only ~1/3 during a -NAO, ~1/3 during neutral, and ~1/3 during +NAO. Moreover, the 2/6/1984, 2/17-8/1989, 2/24-6/2015, 1/17-8/2018, and 12/9-10/2018 big RDU snows all had an NAO of +0.9 or higher (range +0.9 to +1.7). RDU hasn't had a big snow during a -NAO since 2010.

    Agree.

    The fact that the GFS has some sort of low in the ballpark as the Euro/EPS is encouraging.Adjustments/tweaks can be made.

    • Like 3
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