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Posts posted by NC_hailstorm
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Don't know if it's right but a hit on the Icon tonight.......
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Canadian might be a hit for western NC,foothills,western piedmont.
Heck of a storm off the coast.
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Just from what I'm seeing at 144,the UKMET,ICON,and Canadian have more shortwave energy further north in CO,OK.and northern TX.
Euro a tick south of there,GFS way way south of there.
Oh and the GFS is scoring very poorly lately,way behind the other three.
NOAA/NWS Headline Scores: ACC 31 Days
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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:
Lol how long have you lived here? You know GSP ain't talking crap up until about 24 to 36 hours. And this is still a high bust situation.
Good news I have the S word in the forecast now
Sunday
Snow before 10am, then rain. High near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.- 1
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Yep that wacky 0z GFS is dropping that PV into the USA late in the run.
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Think that was the 1st Euro run that dropped the polar vortex into the USA,GFS has already had a few.
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Euro is bringing the hammer at day 7,polar vortex dropping into the upper midwest with strong ridging on the west coast.
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No worries the 18z GFS is going all 1899 again lol.
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Hmm,looked like the Canadian today was trying to go all 1899 late in the run.Every now and then you get a run from all models of a wicked cold shot but I'm not sure how far southeast it gets.
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Hmm,I see the GFS went all 1899 on us today.Might wanna save that one.
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The UK has the shortwave at day 6 in west central New Mexico,very close to the Canadian position maybe even a tick southwest of it.
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That's a large hit on the Canadian tonight,looks like the Euro.
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11 minutes ago, GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS' surface low needs to adjust further south to produce widespread SE wintry precip as it has the low going across N GA. With the GFS trending stronger and further south with the H5 low, the 12Z Euro holding onto to the Gulf coast to S GA to offshore track, and the 168 12Z UKMET setup suggesting something similar had it gone out further, I think it is just a matter of time before the inferior GFS does something similar.
Indeed, the AO and MJO for 1/13-15 are looking favorable. The PNA drops to neutral then, but I don't see that as a negative.
The +NAO, indeed, is dropping from an earlier strong. However, the GEFS has it still moderate (~+0.9) 1/13-15. But as the research I posted two days ago showed, folks hoping for a big SE snow shouldn't fret about it. Why? Because in looking at big RDU snows since 1950, there was no correlation to NAO with only ~1/3 during a -NAO, ~1/3 during neutral, and ~1/3 during +NAO. Moreover, the 2/6/1984, 2/17-8/1989, 2/24-6/2015, 1/17-8/2018, and 12/9-10/2018 big RDU snows all had an NAO of +0.9 or higher (range +0.9 to +1.7). RDU hasn't had a big snow during a -NAO since 2010.Agree.
The fact that the GFS has some sort of low in the ballpark as the Euro/EPS is encouraging.Adjustments/tweaks can be made.
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Euro and EPS look pretty good at day 7- 8,even the GFS is similar with the low placement it's just too warm for frozen at the moment.
MJO looks very favorable in about a week,(p8,p1)AO is still negative,and the NAO ticking to neutral.Time to track.
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Ukie looks like it might hit,little quicker than the GFS in regards to timing.
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1'' here,23.9 light snow.
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January temps updated.
AVL 0.0
CLT +2.5
GSP +1.1
HKY +2.1
GSO +1.5
RDU +1.8
FAY +1.6
CAE +1.9
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0z UKMET looks like a hit day 5,little more east .
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Late phasing,,eastern sections doing a little better but have a storm.
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0z Canadian is a hit,day 5
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0z GFS is a hit,phased storm at day 5.
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Light snow 28.0 Haven't seen any freezing rain all day which is a little surprising.
4.5'' total
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A light snow/flizzard,very fine flakes. 27.1
Still around 4''
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
in Southeastern States
Posted
Good grief a 972 low on the Canadian.