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Nelson

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Posts posted by Nelson

  1.  

    **edit** just saw we pulled the trigger on a thread. I like it.

    Obviously would be tits if we got back to back 6+' storms (in my neck of the woods) but long ways to go yet on the weekend system. Lot of spread on the GFS ENS. Don't mind the EPS look at this point.

    Also, lots of talk about how the ECMWF has been shit as of late but does anyone have verification stats to back that up (I'm too lazy to look)? Seems like it was pretty consistent at range with the early week system vs the GFS.

    gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png

     

    eps_lowlocs_us_23.png

  2. 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

    Not at all a bad look. Lots of good members for a big Chi hit. 

     

    GEFS has been fairly consistent with the mean low track over the past few runs. As always, ENS are really the only thing to be seriously watching at this range.

    • Like 1
  3. 3 hours ago, krfd said:

    enjoy the heat. you're schtick has run its course once again, you're about 6 months overdue for your cyclical ban. folks are tolerating your shit as its summer but if you keep the antics up the next few months you're donezo again. maybe tone it down and try to act normal. 

    The ignore feature is wonderful. Use it and save yourself the bullshit.

    • Haha 4
  4. 2 minutes ago, roardog said:

    While it’s been very dry recently, the changing pattern next week looks much more favorable for rain across our sub. We don’t usually do dry very well these days around here. If anything is agw fueled, it’s the extra moisture we get around here in the summer. It seems like an eternity since dewpoints have been as low as they’ve been recently in the summer. 

    That's the one thing that has struck me more than anything so far this summer - the low dewpoints. I can't remember a stretch where they have been, on average, as low as they've been.

    • Like 1
  5. I'll go with 5.5" for mby. .5" liquid seems to be about the model average and we should stick around 10:1 ratios. MKX talking potential dry air to overcome to start so we will see what that does to totals. Feels like general 4-6" in and around southern WI seems like a safe bet.

    • Like 1
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