fyrfyter

Just now, WHEATCENT said:

the NAM is showing a mix when its in the mid 20s

possible?

Everything is possible. Louisville had freezing rain the other day with ground temps around 17.

23 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

After the kuchera euro, if we are to trust they fixed the bug, 12 inches is possible in Cincy. I am terrified of another NW shift though, it's getting too close to those lower amounts for me.

I think the last NW shift was a glitch, because it came back SE on the next run. It's expected to start in 5 hours. We are really entering the nowcast portion of the event. Time to start watching the pressure falls and where things establish and move. 

3 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

I was, I moved out to Cincy about a year and a half ago to try to get better opportunities. I also get much less fun weather out here...until this year.

Our truly exciting weather events are few and far between... But there is a lot of beer here...

33 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Always fun to take the time to post on here along with [mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] and any other NWS mets that post here and on other subs, and see others saying they'd have no problem defunding the NWS.

 I have a huge problem with this. We won't get weather models and a ton of other stuff. This forum would cease to exist and Skywarn as a function would also cease to exist as well. Want to know when the tornado is coming, look up. 

People with their big mouths don't actually understand the cascading effects of such a drastic change. 

12 minutes ago, OhioWX said:

Cautiously optimistic in SW Ohio. The overachiever on the 8-9th and now this just feels too good to be true. Year after year of disappointing winters... I’m not used to being spoiled like this. 

I think this is our jackpot storm. Yes, we are normally lacking in solid snowfall events. It's tough for us to get more than 3-4" at any point. I just hope the end of this week doesn't bring a crippling ice storm. 

4 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

It's both northern IN, ILN, and CLE. From what I've read so far is ILN is treating this as a two part storm and they don't think those areas will reach warning criteria from either wave, despite ending up with 8" overall.

ILN Warning for here says 5-8, but the ILN graphic says 6-9... You would think those should agree with each other. 

10 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

 

 

Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. 

Is that Northern IN or fringe of ILN CWA? I know the criteria is different the further North you go. 

4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

What storm has the GFS done well on lately???

For my area, most of the recent ones. I really has been spot on since the cold and the snow hit here. 

Just now, Frog Town said:

So why is everyone's forecast hedging towards the GFS operational in their AFD's??

Because it has performed better recently. 

I think its close to that. The first 2/3rds of our winter was awful. Glad we are gaining some back. 

Just now, jbcmh81 said:

Cincinnati came really close to double-digits just last week.  I think some of the metro hit that.

NKY at the airport got to 9.something due to mesoscale banding. I got 5 at my house, in NW Hamilton County.

GFS has been better for us with last few storms. Euro has been folding to GFS in the end.

It’s been 10 years since we have seen a double digit snowfall. It will likely be another 10 before we see another one. I hope this happens as modeled. I am just happy the last part of winter this season has been this good. 

There’s a bug in the national map that is causing some issues. Last time it looked like ILN had dropped theirs and they had not. 

That’s a rarity down there. Someone posted elsewhere that his wife has only seen snow 3 times in her life. 

ILN just issued a Winter Storm Watch for its CWA!

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=iln&wwa=winter storm watch

2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Yah I cant remember the last time Indy issued a Watch so early. They're usually slower than everyone lol

Nope - ILN is by far the slowest. We just call it the donut hole - when everyone else has already issued theirs.

Doesn't even kick in until end of the weekend. Talk about jumping the gun...

12z GFS seems to be drying out some with the Southern portion of the storm. The Snow and ice totals are about half of what they used to be. They are 1/3rd from 12 hours ago. Not sure on that one. If the GFS is acting like the NAM or what's up with that. It does better though, without the random tongue of missing precip. 

NAM looks like it's still having issues with the snow to ice line in NKY. The 540 thickness line goes North to almost the Ohio River before moving South again. That would create mixing issues here for sure. It's definitely showing issues with the Ice/Snow line as the event unfolds.

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Across the river in Harrison & Floyd Co., IN. My dad has a plow on his tractor and helps out some of the older neighbors too. 

Got it. Have been there many times. My Dad's Fiancée is from New Albany. I bought a truck many years ago from a guy in Floyds Knobs. 

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Your neighbors must love you. I grew up near Louisville and don’t recall anyone around there ever having a snowblower. 

Where near Louisville did you grow up? Most of my Dad's family is from Louisville. 

Actually, the majority of my neighbors have snowblowers. Only a couple do not, and we clear their driveways since they are older. 

3 minutes ago, Courtney_snow said:

I would shovel, then 15 minutes later there would be another 2”. Was nuts

I didn’t even bother. Got out the snowblower at 7am and cleared it all at once.

They issued this MD overnight here, for snowfall rates of 1-3”/hr, due to mesoscale banding. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0066.html
 

snowfall across the area is 5-10 inches, with the official report from KCVG coming in at 9.8”

We were supposed to get 4”. So far we have 8” and it’s still snowing. Overachiever...