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Posts posted by usedtobe
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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
Yeah, vort is noticeably souther maybe by 50-75 miles
Yes and gives me 3". Now I'll take walk so I don't see the GFS to disappoint me.
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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
Wes! Miss you dude
Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add.
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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
1-3"er
I broke the accumulations down to 6 and 12 hr intervals and stormvista gave nothing. Here's it's 24 hr amounts. If it snows that lightly we'd be lucky to get more than a coating. Graphic is courtesy of StormVista.
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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
That’s the big shift on the NAMs. The low position is now drastically mor inland and north than it was at 0z. Hence more southerly wind vs southeast. It evidently is making a huge difference.
But the Euro has had that feature for days. Here's a 90hr forecast valid a 7PM Saturday.
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Personally, in these really marginal temp event, I use the snow depth product. It's more conservative with amounts which is a good think. If it's really cold other snow maps are probably preferable. The GFS snowdepth product from the 18Z run.
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9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
I think February is a big test as to the decadal -PNA we are in. The N. Pacific anomalies over the last 6 Winter's are the greatest we've ever seen in an area at 500mb on record for a 6-year period. (Feb 1964-1969 -NAO comes in 2nd)
Interesting that 1964-1969 was a snowy period.
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27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch.
I think your last two sentences are correct. We need the heavier precipitation and associated vertical motion to keep temps cold enough for snow. Of course not for me.
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3.13" 2 miles north of Dunkirk in Calvert County.
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On 8/16/2023 at 12:34 PM, mattie g said:
Maybe I just haven't been paying attention, but I can't recall seeing a system that rides so closely against the Baja coast and runs into southern California like the GFS is showing for early next week.
Kathleen in 1976 had almost an identical track. It cause lots of flooding and pretty much wiped out one town.
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16 hours ago, MN Transplant said:
I'm thinking 96/97 for all three days at DCA. Just a touch under what NWS is going (98/98/98).
I think that pretty much what the 06Z GFS was forecasting. The GFS definitely has problems. It's been running hot or at least that has been my perception. Still 96 or 97 with dewpoints in the 70s is nasty.
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Just now, usedtobe said:
Yes it was one of my favorites and one of the storms that pulled me into meteorology. Knocked out our power for week.
1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:- 11
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3 minutes ago, yoda said:
Hopefully GEFS looks as good lol
Looks bad.
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Getting my minutes of snow.
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49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
Euro wants nothing to do with post frontal snow unfortunately. About a 20F temp drop in 6 hours per euro, and 30F in 12 hours.
It's what you'd expect with most fronts east of the mountains.
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Another 1.84" for the event. Managed to walk 4 miles in the morning before the rains came.
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No thunder, ended up with 0.23"
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I power washed my boat yesterday. The warm temps really motivated me to do something I hadn't done for a couple of year. The other motivation was the boat had lots of bird poop on it from being parked in its slip in Florida and really needed a wash. Anyway, boat carpet looks the best it's looked in years. I still need to fill the various boating compartment that I emptied prior to the wash. I'm looking forward to fishing this spring if gas prices don't limit me too much. I rarely post here anymore because I do the Capital Weather Gang bit but still stop by and read thoughts on storms and remember how much I enjoyed interacting with everyone. I am hoping to see a few snowflakes though it's doubtful I'll see accumulations.
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The 12Z 3km Nam is warmer than the 06Z. Has a deep isothermal layer with temps above freezing by a degree or two for about 6000 or 7000 feet. I just want 050" of rain as my plants need it.
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39 degrees at 9:00AM in northern Calvert County. I'll happily keep my light non frozen wimpy rain.
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The temp and dewpoint at 830 mb looks a tad warm for refreezing so it will be interesting to see if you get sleet or not.
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Beware, of the 10-1 ratio snow plots, The GFS has DCA with over 4" but the GFS never gets the 2m temp below freezing. In this case the pivotwx snow depth product is likely to be better. Of course, the models haven't yet converged on where the heaviest precip band will be located.
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9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:
Seems pretty straightforward. The GFS syncs the northern vort with the trough and the euro doesn't. We are rooting for the former.
Yep and the UKMET and GFS are in one camp and the Euro and Gem are in the other.
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1) PD1 1979, thee highest hourly snowfall rates I"ve ever seen. Also, a colleague at work told me the storm was over after the 1st 4" and that we might see another inch with the vort.
2) Feb 5-6 2010, my second biggest snowstorm in terms of accumulations.
3) March 1958. Much like this storm this year, I had 16" of heavy wet snow that knocked out our power for a week. We cooked over the fire in the fireplace like cowboys. I thought that was neat. My dad and mom weren't as thrilled since they had to keep bailing the basement to keep water from reaching the freezer.
4) the blizzard or 1966. Snow drifts reached the second story of my high school. Wind driven snow in with temps below freezing and the only true ground blizzard for a couple of hours after the snow ended.
5) December 2009 storm. The most snow in December i can ever remember from a storm.
6) honorable mention: the 1993 storm of the century because I got to do a live interview on the Today show. My snow turned to rain but then we had a flash freeze and my remaining snow became on huge ice block.
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Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
It is drier. Not sure that means a lot.