wolfie09

A Lot of lightning in nj..Thunder sleet reported in AC..

3k at 11am, has us snow most of the day, just doesn’t add up to much..The time period from Friday am-Friday pm has about 1/2” LE and still snowing..

Gotcha, I was just looking at the text lol Yea looks warmish, after this next week I’ll be ready for spring too..

Not so sure about that haha..Euro OP has a MAX of 38 over the next 10 days.. Eps is mostly below avg over the next 15, obviously taken with a grain of salt in the LR..

Long duration wwa issued ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations through the long event of 10 to 18 inches are expected. Greatest snow accumulations in a 12-hour period likely Thursday and Thursday night. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times

Don’t look at the 6z nam lol Even farther east..

Majority is from wrap around.. 0z euro..

Model noise verbatim, from a little over an inch to a little under, GFS..

Not much has changed here, always been a wrap around/enhancement event..Higher elevations always gonna be favored..

Yup, same here..Left nedrow with rain, got to KSyr and it was a mix, turned into all snow about 5 miles from Fulton..Car Temp has dropped from 40 to 34..

This is long duration lighter precipitation event, it’s been that way for days, at least here.. Putting all of the above together...the westward shift seen in some of the guidance today has resulted in increasing forecast confidence in headline-worthy amounts east of Lake Ontario. In this region...a current model consensus now supports up to a foot or so of total accumulation across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foothills between Wednesday afternoon and the end of the day Friday...and this total could turn out to be higher if some of the further west/wetter guidance ultimately verifies. With this in mind...we have hoisted a long-duration Winter Storm Watch for the Eastern Lake Ontario region to cover this possibility...with the heaviest snows again appearing to be most likely across the higher terrain.

Models were atrocious with qpf here last storm, something to keep in mind..For example Euro was 3/4” to dry ..

I’m a Rolling with the NAM products..

Winter like 10 days on the euro..It’s actually not much different here as models been showing wrap around for the last several days..

Kbuf On Thursday...the heart of our forecast area will become the pivot point for a classic Fujiwara-type interaction between the two storm systems within the larger longwave gyre. The initial closed low will dive southeast toward the Mid Atlantic region while the more dynamic secondary storm system will rotate north to the coast of Maine. Again...this will keep the bulk of the organized lift on the corners of our forecast area where snow showers will be more concentrated. In the case of the North Country...the snow will become especially widespread and steady as a result of the deeper synoptic moisture being wrapped around the northwest periphery of the Nor`easter. Have thus raised pops to categorical for this area. Snowfall accumulations will range from one to two inches...with the higher amounts generally across the higher terrain (abv 1500 ft). As is usually the case with binary interaction...the two cores will eventually merge into one consolidated mid level storm system. This will be the case Thursday and night and Friday when the complex storm system will (de)evolve into one stacked low over New England. In the process...the nor`easter will become captured by its overlying mid level support and be drawn inland across Maine. Meanwhile deep Atlantic moisture will be circulated back to the west across all of our forecast area where snow will become steadier and more widespread. Have raised pops by some 10 to 15 points regionwide with cat pops found east of the Finger Lakes. Would not be surprised if all of the region were raised to categorical pops within the next package or two. The deepening moisture will translate into a fairly deep dendritic growth zone as well...with depths likely exceeding 5k ft. This will provide the bulk of the region with an environment very conducive for efficient snow making...so would not rule out the potential for several inches of snow during this 24 hour period.

GEFS

Always got the Canadian that misses us to the east but hammers us with lake effect lol

Yea, I think we have a good shot at some wrap around, how much accumulation is another story..

Probably putting too much stock in the NAM products but hopefully we can keep this interesting at the very least..

12k

Good ole 3k

Euro also had a big storm day 8 but to far SE verbatim, definitely something to keep an eye on..

If this was a couple weeks ago it could of been decent, Gfs has been advertising some wrap around/lake enhancement for a few runs now but with surface temps in the low-mid 30’s, light precipitation rates and being March, probably won’t materialize to much, maybe up north towards the tug/dacks.. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%