UpStateCAD

17 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

It's between Maggie and cherokee.  Not sure on the land but there are some houses on the Haywood County side above 5k. Once you cross into Jackson you're on the reservation and can't own land there unless you're cherokee.  Also, you're not far from the casino and the ski slope. Great rental potential!

Appreciate it franklin

13 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

If I stayed in NC I would prefer soco at 5k or Madison County 

Where is Soco?  Is it near Waterrock Knob west of Waynesville?  How much land up there is above 5000 ft?  You think it would be the most affordable, high probability snow terrain in NW NC?  

Power out 1100 customers.  Greenville.  N Main, Rutherford Rd, N Pleasantburg area.  

Just measured 5 inches on my deck (N Main) Greenville.   Looks like we have finally switched to mainly sleet.   
 

GSP had cut my totals to 1.5 in.    Score one for the HRRR. 

32 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Just when I  think the Hrrr can't get any better; it spits out this non sense. Upstate, SC... let's go!!! I'm honestly going to be very... very surprised if Oconee/Pickens/Greenville doesn't get at least 3-4 inches at this point. The writing is on the wall, front end thump incoming!

Eric Webb (Met in Charlotte area) on Twitter is all over HRRR trends as well 

So almost all of the short range models (HRRR, RAP, etc) except the NAM are showing 6+ in for the upstate?? 

Lookout.   What’s your experience been with the accuracy of the hrrr regarding thermal profiles?  
 

im interested in your take because I know you have been following these icy set up for NE Ga and Upstate for years. 
 

Anything but heavy (> 0.5 in) icing. 

I’ll feel a lot better when the GFS stops showing an Armageddon type ice storm for GSP and CLT.   
 

hopefully as the high res models get within range this changes to a raging sleet storm.  

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It's a weatherbell graphic, but here's a good free site for buffkit/meteograms https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml  just put your airport code in the box to the right   

Here is their buffkit output for gsp

 

220116/0600Z 108  06011KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   79|  0| 21
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/0700Z 109  05013KT  30.5F  SNPL    4:1| 0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.065    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.08   70| 30|  0
220116/0800Z 110  05015KT  29.4F  SNPL    7:1| 0.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.057    6:1|  0.7|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.14   64| 36|  0
220116/0900Z 111  06015KT  28.5F  SNOW   12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093    8:1|  1.8|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
220116/1000Z 112  06015KT  27.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129    8:1|  2.7|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
220116/1100Z 113  05016KT  26.7F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133    8:1|  3.9|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.50  100|  0|  0
220116/1200Z 114  05017KT  25.8F  SNPL   14:1| 2.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.149    9:1|  5.9|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.65   87| 13|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/1300Z 115  05017KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153    9:1|  7.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0
220116/1400Z 116  04017KT  24.3F  SNOW    8:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.182    9:1|  8.8|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.98  100|  0|  0
220116/1500Z 117  05018KT  23.6F  SNPL    7:1| 1.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.148    9:1|  9.7|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 1.13   55| 45|  0
220116/1600Z 118  05019KT  23.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.05|| 0.115    9:1|  9.7|| 0.39|| 0.05|| 1.24    0| 58| 42
220116/1700Z 119  05020KT  22.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.12|| 0.08|| 0.140    9:1|  9.7|| 0.51|| 0.13|| 1.39    0| 44| 56
220116/1800Z 120  05017KT  23.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.044    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.14|| 1.43    0| 77| 23
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/2100Z 123  04013KT  24.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.033    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.18|| 1.46    0|  0|100
220117/0000Z 126  31004KT  24.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.042    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.22|| 1.50    0|  0|100

Thanks.   I found that link.   I used to have the one you initially posted.   Can’t remember what it was.    BTW found part of the issue.   Big difference between downtown Greenville (KGMU) and GSP 18z unfortunately.   Much more ice downtown. 

16 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

18z gfs 

Hey Buckeye.    What site produces that version of the metograms?   I lost all of my old weather links.   Also it is strange that it is showing zero zn.    Pivotal was showing around a half and in of ice, around an inch and a half of sleet and 5 inches of snow for GSP for the 18z.  

1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

He said that to me. That pompous azz lol.  My brother still laughs at me about it.

Hickory.     That storm made you famous.   I was also without power for 5 days.   That’s why I’m cringing when I hear people say that those high ice totals don’t happen.   We got 3/4 in of ice from that storm. 

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

3K NAM getting worse here instead of better. Does show a little more sleet along the Blue Ridge 

That’s pretty good resolution.   It’s picking up Paris Mtn in central Greenville Co in Sc  ( the highest elevation around to be ice and not rain.