WeatherMonger

4 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yeah you're super lucky being close to that rain snow line. I'm jealous. Snow flake size here is pretty meh

You got the better ratios

Might be up to 3" here, but still not below freezing

2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yeah you're super lucky being close to that rain snow line. I'm jealous. Snow flake size here is pretty meh

ILX not backing down, we'll see.

Can't see it falling but just came back in from the garage and it felt a little grainy here like it could be more snow pellet/sleet

Edit, whoops forgot the graphic

1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yeah you're super lucky being close to that rain snow line. I'm jealous. Snow flake size here is pretty meh

Don't be too jealous, doubt our results are much different. Definitely not hitting the 2-3" by 5pm ILX had called for, be lucky to get 3" total. That much may have fallem, but that much definitely didn't accumulate.

I'd say 1-1/2" right bow onnthe grassy surfaces. Ground is covered for the most part, hovering around the freezing mark.

Roads are worse than I imagined. Pulled my truck around to load it and roads are solidly coated in a slushy mess. They must have salted the heck in between buildings for thr fork trucks amd prevented it from sticking.

Flakes are growing, pavement is slush with white spots showing up.

Updated ILX WWA

Quote

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

ILZ038-042-043-048-051>053-131200-
Christian-De Witt-Logan-Macon-McLean-Menard-Sangamon-
314 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Snow will continue through much of tonight, diminishing late. Some
rain may be mixed in at times through early evening south of I-72.
Snow totals of 4 to 5 inches are expected across the area. By
late tonight, strong northwest winds may result in some blowing
and drifting snow, and rapidly falling temperatures will causing
wet or slushy roads to quickly become icy.

Snow started falling here at noon, 36 degrees and temp started a gradual drop to 32 and has now gone back up to 33 degrees.

Just took a walk to backside of building and grassy areas have about 1/2" to show for 3 hours of what would normally be a steady accumulating rate. Starting to coat car tops and windshields but pavement and other warm surfaces still melting on contact.

Still no go on paved and metal surfaces. Cannot see the grass currently but wooden surfaces are just now starting to get white rather than just slushy.

Down to 32 now, guessing wet bulbing helped with the quick drop, would be nice to get a couple more degrees lower but not sure how fast that will happen.

Dropped 2 degrees this past hour, now at 33.x. 

Getting a slushy coating on wooden surfaces, pavement and metal not so much.

I'd take the Euro in a heartbeat, but not letting it play to my emotions.

Although I have a feeling heavy rates will happen about 5pm asI had a smoker delivered to my work today and have to get it home and unloaded which means dragging stuff out of the garage, getting it in and then putting the stuff back in.

Such a waste, what would be an accumulating snowfall rate just melting away with mid 30's temps. Temp did drop one degree from 36 to 35 this past hour. 

Wish the colder air would arrive quicker

Small flakes are falling here, no rain yet

12Z NAM

12Z NAM 3K

4 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Seems a bit conservative doesnt it ? I would think the Indy area has a greater than 10% chance at 4". NWS has me at about 5" in the hourly grids.

Depending on duration, your area could extend beyond 12Z  2/13 so woupdn't be included in Day 1 graphic. It was just something to post awaiting the 12Z NAM

12Z HRRR with radar at timestamp

WPC 4" probs

ILX latest graphic. They seem to be more on the optimistic side of things, I'd be ok woth 3"

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

0z gfs mostly 2-4in across the board 

Cutoff a bit too close for my liking, hope it's a bit more south than that

ILX AFD via LOT

Quote

Impressive mid level circulation is visible at the Arizona/New
Mexico border on water vapor satellite this afternoon, with a
steady feed of moisture in the southwest flow ahead of this
system. Morning soundings from the lower Mississippi valley
(Little Rock with 0.75" PW and over 1" at Fort Worth, TX)
indicate the moisture that is headed this direction on Wednesday.

A strong upper level jet ahead of the circulation will steer this
moisture into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and into
southern and central IL on Wednesday. The best moisture transport
is headed toward the Ohio River Valley where the highest QPF will
be focused but the 0.75" PWAT axis will get into most of the
area. This coupled with decent isentropic lift ahead of the system
will promote a rapid expansion of the precipitation shield
through the morning into the afternoon. While surface temps may
warm above freezing, wet bulbing will support precip changing to
snow pretty quickly and then the precip rates should keep temps
down. Snow ratios will be on the lower side, but heavy wet snow
will be falling in the afternoon and into the evening commute.
Meanwhile, a sharp gradient in the rain- snow line will setup
somewhere along and north of the I-70 corridor with the higher
confidence in the highest numbers along and north of I-72/I-74. We
have issued a winter weather advisory for all counties north of
I-70 with various start/end times. Some areas in southeast IL
could get up to 1" of rain.

Precipitation rates will ease a bit Wednesday night, but colder
air will filter in from the northwest, and precipitation in the
deformation region on the northwest flanks of the surface low will
allow the snow to continue Wednesday evening, and with lighter
intensity overnight before tapering from southwest to northeast.
The I-74 corridor is still favored for the highest totals with a
stripe of 4-5" possible, areas in the advisory look receive 2-5"
overall. There is still some uncertainty in the cutoff line of
heavy rain vs. heavy snow.

14 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Technical question...Why did LOT issue the advisory for ILX? I won't post the entire wording but I was curious about this. Is it a glitch or is ILX at a retreat this week  

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
240 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

They also did this mornings AFD, I have seen them do the ILX forecast in the past when the Lincoln office has computer issues or other technical difficulties.

ILX

Still can't get my hopes up with difference between 10:1, Kuchera and snow depth on 0ZNAM

10:1 is greater than Kuchera and snow depth is less than 10:1

21Z SREF Plume more than doubles 15Z, not that 2.78" is anything to write home about.

3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

DVN isn't impressed: 

The 12Z model suite has shown more phasing than past runs with the
upcoming system. The QPF has shifted north, resulting in models
producing typical advisory levels of snow over the CWA and the
rest of northern IL. However, no model run has really indicated a
closed mid level circulation in this phasing, thus the
precipitation should be mainly driven by WAA and not be long
lasting or heavy in the cold side of the system (not a persistent
def zone). While I am on board with increasing pops to likely for
this event, we may not have a cold boundary layer over our region,
and that could greatly limit any snow accumulation until the
Arctic front arrives Wednesday night, and once again, unless
there`s reason to draw moisture back over the cold air, that
process should shut down the widespread rain/snow. Snow showers
may develop with low level lapse rates peaking in the gusty Arctic
transition.

ILX wasn't very hyped either.

Less than 72 hours out and still showing something for us, I'm once again on the southern fringe of things which is fine if it stays that way, but any nudge north and it could be the difference between all or mostly nothing.

Why can't we get another GHD event that spreads the wealth for many, yet not everyone. Haven't had a bowling ball type event in awhile that could gibe a majority a good event.

One of these winters has to break open, maybe, possibly, hopefully.......