buckeye

NE and MA subs are licking their chops. Haven't seen a single winter forecast that isn't a weenie's dream for them. Even Don S is as bullish as I've ever seen. Meanwhile the forecast for our fly-over sub is kinda non-descript...lol. It'll be interesting to look back after the last dirty patch of ice melts and see how it all worked out. Wasn't it DT who said, (when it comes to forecasting), if everyone is thinking the same thing....no one is thinking.

Pretty weak system regardless of track....pos tilted trough.... and marginal temps equals slushy inch on cars and grass at best. I'm more excited about the warm up that's starting to show on the models after this cold shot

Early January '99 was probably the most wide spread share the wealth event I can recall, even though the Chicago area got the brunt. Large sprawling area of antecedent arctic air with a moisture bomb coming out of the Gulf. Track of low didn't really effect precip type, (low tracked west of us), because by the time mid levels warmed, 90% of the precip ended. Usually when you get a set up like that a lot of folks get screwed with a sleet storm.

I beleive that January ended up being a record warm January for many of us too. The '89 flip also went from record cold in December to above normal in January. The infamous JB rubberband breaking theory on full display.

Then there was Dec 1989, BRUTAL cold hitting -18 here at the climax. Then the calendar switched to January and winter disappeared, never to truly return. In that instance, that December was so cold it almost overshadowed the rest of the mild months.

Of course you can, but I'm getting really hungry for a winter that starts in December and ends earlier. March and April of this year were horrible.

Although I don't think he's released a winter forecast yet, good ole Coz makes a pretty bold claim: "...you will have to wait until the last week of December, and possibly beyond, before you get get yourself into winter mode in U.S. locations". Seems to be referring to the eastern US and his reasoning being placed on anemic signs of any good blocking thru Nov and Dec. We shall see, most forecasts I've seen are pretty bullish for winter in the east.

The Ohio River valley is the perfect geographic WTOD glide path for storms coming out of the SW. It really requires a perfect balance between storm strength, cold air available, and track.

Not always a good thing to see this stuff show up 2 months before the scheduled party....or maybe it locks in?

Welcome back Steve. Hopefully this thread remains quiet thru Nov since I'm a big fan of warm dry Novembers. Then we start rocking around Dec 18th. Carry that thru January, and close up early in Feb. There, I just put my order in for winter 18-19 ....a man can dream.

That winter started out frustrating for CMH with the Xmas Eve storm that had us on the warm side, but ended strong with the president's day weekend storm that gave us 15". When all seasonal forecasts seem to point in the same direction, they usually end up being wrong. Right now the consensus favors southeast portions of sub to the coast.....we'll see.

About 2 or 3 weeks ago I was listening to our local wx guru, Jym Ganahl. It was a particularly warm day and the projected high was expected to top 80. Jym proclaimed it would be our last 80+ degree day for 6 months. We've had several 80 degree days since then and tomorrow's forecasted high is an amazing 86 degrees. Nice work Jym!

There use to be that dead time in model runs after the 6z GFS and before the 12z nam. Then again after the 18z GFS and before the 00z nam. Damn, this is going to be like giving alcoholics 4 day weekends.

Pretty sure this "scared son" is not concerned with the house being wiped out or injury or death as a direct result of the hurricane itself. The issue is they are both close to 80 yrs old and I believe they have no concept of the prolonged hardship they will face in the weeks following the storm.

My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community. Their lot is 28 feet above sea level. They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors. I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them. My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo.

Rain is about the only type of weather I'll take a pass on when it comes to extremes. I'm glad to see the euro in the 3-4" range...yea it's nothing to sneeze at but it also doesn't quite meet my threshold where I have to start camping out in the basement watching the sump pump and floor.

Early morning I fired up the HRRR to see what to expect for jobs today. Showed scattered showers developing well north of us in early afternoon. As I sit here at 10am cluster storms blowing up right over top and to our sw....latest HRRR still shows nothing.

gosh, I'd hate to be the almanac forecaster in Chicago.... they are riding the border between "biting cold" and "teeth chattering cold". The repercussions between one or the other verifying could wreak havoc on the preparedness of such a large population center. I'm not even going to speculate on the consequences of 'plentiful snow' vs. 'snowy',

I also need to correct myself and apologize to OSUbrett2 and wxdudemike .....2 Ohio mets that do contribute here. They just tend not to be as prolific in the posting department as some of the others.

I just saw this. Noooooo! You've left us! Ugh Ohio is back to having no pro met representation on the board, ( kind of crazy when you think about it). Anyways, good luck to you and belated congrats!

I'm with you. I'm also not sold on the weight often given to enso state alone, (not to mention the difficulty of being able to predict the correct enso state for the upcoming winter months in advance). Safe call here in Central Ohio is a nickle and diming, (with a 50 cent piece maybe thrown in), to end up with an average snowfall winter. Another yawner but not necessarily a ratter.

Don't recall late Jan 2002 storm. I'm usually pretty good with remembering the good ones, although my aging mind tends to blur specifics.

Like trying to look away as you drive by a terrible car accident....I failed. Yea, cold and snowy over the eastern half with the epicenter over the TN valley and fading out from around that. Translation: congrats lakes and new england. I expect the "delayed but not denied" card making it's appearance in early January.

So I know we don't have an official winter of '18-'19 thread started yet, probably because we tend to be one of the more grounded subs on this site...lol. But glancing around I see the NE folks are starting to drool with talks of how great things are starting to look for them....and yet it's the beginning of August and 4 months out from met winter beginning. Only thing I'm sure of is that political outcomes and winter forecasts have about the same verification chances when the predictions are made months in advance.

Yea, especially because of wind. Flash flooding associated with a severe storm would be an exception. For instance, 26 dead in Shadyside Ohio in July of 1990 from an isolated thunderstorm that produced a flash flood. That duck boat video is gut stretching.