Radtechwxman

You and me both. Minus the lake part. Ha

Hrrr/rap continue to be pretty nw for here and basically track low over me and have a rain for good chunk of Tues but nice front end thump. 3km and 12km nam though have trended more se and keep me out of mixing or rain as much. Not sure what to believe. Hrrr/rap have been pretty consistent.

Euro quite warm at beginning of this storm. Takes while for changeover for good chunk of IL. Not sure I buy that given the arctic air moving se. But that is plausible outcome IF the arctic air doesn't get as far south in time.

Starting to look like the WAA snows will be best of this storm for many, esp my area. Dryslot/mixing is looking to be a real issue here Tues after WAA snows. Deformation zone doesn't seem as impressive as one would think with a low this strong. Guessing maybe occlusion processes cutting off moisture feed too early. Do you think we will see the sfc low track nw of I55 like hrrr/rap/nam are suggesting? Also noticing on these models that the low seems kind of strung out despite being pretty strong. Idk if these models struggle with representing the isobars correctly but the low looks so large on these models.

I'm not getting excited at all considering I sat pretty forever on this current system and now look to get missed mostly nw. However the arctic air pushing in may help to limit extreme nw trends with this one.

The lead wave Thurs seems to have trended stronger on gfs again so dampens/flattens our potential big dog. Definitely something to watch. Euro/Canadian look better than gfs. I think models going to struggle with this until they resolve Mon-Tues system and its snow pack.

Must be nice. Lol. I sat good forever on this one but last second nw shift trying to crush my hopes and dreams. Will see if the trends hold tomorrow.

Man 0z euro painful here. Right on the mixing line. Brutal cutoff. I'm not liking where I sit at all. Feel like Iowa is wheeling this one in slowly. Still hoping for a slight se correction in next day or so. If these trends continue tomorrow I'm probably out of this one.

Must say models tonight have me nervous. Dry slot and mixing line VERY close. I hope the nw trend stops or corrects back se. But a continued nw shift wouldn't surprise me.

18z euro jump nw. Man. This nw trend can stop anyday now. Has mixing line right on me. Hoping for slight correction back se

Would be an absolute shame to see that happen when we finally get quality cold air in place. Models probably going to struggle until they resolve the early week system and the snow pack it lays down

Okay nw shift can stop now ha. Getting a little too close for comfort to rain-snow line

I do agree thermals are an issue esp with eastern extent cuz of strong waa but don't agree it won't changeover till late Tues. I think strong forcing and dynamic cooling will help changeover.

ILX majorly downplaying this in their latest afd. Calling for mix or potentially rain through majority of the event well into Tues.

Yeah typical nam. Usually on north end of guidance in its long range but falls in line with guidance as we close in. Unless this does end up stronger and nw which is plausible. Hoping for a nice front end thump.

That's not surprising. Lol. But definitely misleading the public. On a side note nam looking like it will be relatively north at end of its run. Probably near STL. Nice front end thump. If you can believe its temp profiles.

Did you see the 1000mb contour was inside the 996mb contour? Lol

I just don't buy rain-snow line being that west and I think they're being a bit conservative with the low strength

I would love to know what model blend they're following. I do agree rain or mix will start before a changeover in the heavier rates in deformation band but I think they're too weak with low and a bit too warm.

OP euro was definitely struggling with the thermals. It's a shame this system doesn't have a nice arctic air mass to work with. Pretty much depending on intense precip in def band to dynamically cool column for snow. Ratios going to be low. Someone nearby will get warning criteria snowfall but this easily could have been a widespread foot plus for a bigger area if antecedent air mass was colder.

The EPS looks better

Wondering if it's having convective feedback issues

Definitely would think with a system that dynamic that deformation band would change to solid snow in the heavy precip. Hopefully sampling soon will help models resolve this.

Euro is a torch. Lol. Deformation band is mostly a mix. Snow amounts terrible

It was very much sarcasm. Lol. But I will take anything at this point! Snow is snow!