cyclone77

00z NAM says forget about chasing Monday anywhere north of Oklahoma or Arkansas.

Monday's setup looks pretty conditional over Missouri and the southern half of Illinois. The NAM has quite a bit of clouds and precip in the warm sector during the day, which severely limits instability. The GFS is less bullish with this, and therefore creates a better scenario for this area. The 18z GFS is actually pretty nice as it has a stronger surface low over Missouri as well as modest instability in the warm sector. Shear profiles are pretty good over eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois. As Janet mentioned the St. Louis area would again be a hot spot if the GFS pans out. Hopefully as time goes on we'll see less and less precip shown in the warm sector, but I'm not very confident that will happen.

Monday's setup looks pretty decent on the new GFS over the south half of Missouri and the southern third of Illinois. Already cleared my schedule for Monday, so I'll be heading south if things continue to look this good. GFS sounding near the St. Louis area late Monday...

Just now starting to take a real good look at this setup. The latest GFS shows sort of an elongated surface low from northern Missouri down into Oklahoma. Mid and upper winds are fairly backed over the northern portion of the warm sector, so unless we get a stronger northern (closed) low it doesn't look too good further north. As it stands now the best shot for supercell action will be further south where mid and upper winds are more veered. If the mid and upper level jet structure changes, or if the northern low becomes more dominant then this will all change. Still time for some tweaks. Edited: for my first grade punctuation