jayyy

If they show the same thing under 3 hours from lead time, I’ll worry.

Usually a bit drier than higher res models so I’d agree this looks pretty good. Bump precip by 0.1 and it’s a solid 4-6” storm for many. Also, ratios will best 10:1 at the peak from your area to mine to PSUs

Agree with this for sure. Your 4-8” line runs through my backyard essentially. Thinking 4-6 my area, 4-8” your area., and 2-5” points south toward dc

#purpled!

Looking good! Time for the sub 24 hour QPF juice up to commence

Will def. need to take these with a grain of salt for the next 18-20 hrs. It showed 4” in Baltimore with that last storm a day out.

3-6” area wide dc north with 8” lollies from my area over to the cohoctins and of course, 12” at mt PSU - final call [emoji1787]

You failed.

Shoutout to trilogy wellness

36 hours dude. Not 36 degrees.

We’re talking March in the mid Atlantic folks… we’re not going to see weeks of cold and snow. We can (unfortunately) toss the dream of the epic longwave pattern we thought would bring 2 weeks of sustained winter from late feb into early march. But not at all is lost. If we’re going to hit, it’s likely going to be a super amped wave with good timing / track. Rain to 6” of snow that quickly melts? Certainly possible, even for the lowlands. I honestly don’t mind march. You know… wavelengths and such. March is typically the northern tiers time for a paste bomb.

Ready for highpy hour… [emoji100]

Atta boy

The trend of the season… BETTER / WETTER as we get closer.

Wait this storm is legit happening? Haven’t been paying much attention at all. Just got back into town last night. Let’s goooo

And switching to non avatar snow depth maps from 1985

Looks like about 2-3” at home per spotter reports 10” OTG here in NY. Great storm up this way. Saw a few reports of over a foot east of here

The only favorable shifts we’re seeing this year are inside 24-36 hours.

The mid Atlantic (Maryland / DC area in particular) is seeing their third storm of the year trend in their direction inside of 24 hours. Insane.

Models are struggling inside 12 hours with the storm on our doorstep and people are losing their minds over individual long range runs 1-2+ weeks out? Gimme a break.

While using 10:1 maps is ridiculous given the thermal profile leading in, we discounted the RAP HRRR in January too…. And we saw how that turned out. They sniffed out the southern trend then too. I definitely see this being more of a northern tier special, but I wouldn’t count out HoCo and MoCo entirely. Definitely possible there’s some 2-3” amounts in those areas away from 95 If only it were 4-5 degrees colder going in… we’d be talking 6+ for many

Yup

DUMP IT

REEL IT IN WINTERWX / Ravensrule

His area is about to get 10-15” tomorrow. He’s probably focusing on that in his area.