Jump to content

Southern Track

Members
  • Posts

    579
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Southern Track

  1. Don’t West-based NAO’s start as east-based and progress westward anyway?
  2. Yeah, it's just that seeing an solid agreement on the NAO going negative like that it something we don't ever see. IDK if it will help us but we will see. Also, from what I've read the NAO will become the dominant driver going into end of FEB, early March.
  3. Pattern is as bad as it gets the next two weeks. Alaskan Ridge, West Coast Trough, Southeast Ridge.
  4. Thought that people may wanna see this before it disappears tommorow lol: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/
  5. You"re right it has been locked into that for days. Don't shoot the messenger, but a few mets have been saying that the models are really gonna have a hard time with the propagation of the PV downward, which IMO means they have no idea what's gonna happen.
  6. I don't know man, it seems every met and legitimate weather forecaster I follow still are using the Euro as their go to. Even with the SSW. Evidently the GFS was forecasting an event earlier this season like what's supposedly coming up but the Euro wasn't, and it didn't come to fruition. The Euro and the GFS are on the same page with the SSW this time that's why everyone is harping on it I think.
  7. Not sure how the Euro has been verifying, but it looks better than the GFS: Here's the JMA: And the CFS from yesterday:
  8. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/959122832365105153
  9. I used to go every week with the family! Gotta love the metal prison trays they served the food on.
  10. I tend to agree. I guess the good situation of the amped oscillation is that it’s been rocketing through phases 4,5, and 6 so it can get to more favorable conditions hopefully by mid February.
  11. It could be. After being really amped it looks to die on the vine and skirt the cold phases along with the COD
  12. A low amplitude is what you might see. The Euro ensemble could be showing that very thing. Here's the CFS:
  13. Any clue on how well the ICON is verifying so far this winter?
  14. Exactly. It’s defin not a torch, and the respected forecasters have been saying it was going to be a battle ground as the cold pushed from the plains east toward mid February. Everything looks that way with indices so far.
  15. I think most of us would take this look the first week of February:
  16. The 10 day Ensemble comparison: Pretty comparable that far out with the Western Ridge and trough progression.
  17. The MJO pulse that was depicted so strongly, and was supposed to drive the thaw looks to be weakening around five days from now and to be headed into the COD, according to the GFS.
  18. I believe the latest Plume has our median at an inch.
  19. With us losing the EPO, I doubt it will be suppressed.
×
×
  • Create New...