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bluewave

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Posts posted by bluewave

  1. 38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    the question is if the block is so strong, why dont we see snow all the way down here?

    whats the difference between this and say, April 1996, 2003, 2018....

    other than the obvious fact that the winters preceding them were much colder lol

    The block is so strong since we recently saw the big PV disruption. Then we got the tropics on board with the MJO 8-1 followed by the wave break. The reason the mountains are favored this time around is that it’s so much warmer than 1996,2003, and 2018. Plus the seasonal storm tracks those years were much more favorable for us. 

    • Like 2
  2. 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

    I  don’t think this block orientation would have worked in January. It looks to far south to me which links the ridge off The Atlantic. It also should be noted the pac is still a mess. While it’s enough to give us a awful start to April, I feel it would have been more of the same in January 
     

    @bluewave thoughts? 

    Yeah, I think we still would have had P-Type issues near the coast even in January since the Southeast ridge is forecast to be very strong a day before the storm next week. This allows the primary to ride pretty far north before the coastal eventually takes over. So a continuation of these -NAOs and -AOs linking up with the WAR or Southeast ridge.

    D33C976B-9106-4AC3-8353-B99FB502FC8D.thumb.png.bf35903ccf137c71add91016c44cbfd5.png

     

    • Like 1
  3. 12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

    Not much still open unfortunately. Killington always goes super late though and would benefit 

    I started the general April thread to discuss that storm potential for the first week of April.

     

    • Like 1
  4. Unusually amplified start to April with one of the strongest west based blocks that we have seen in early April. Models indicating the potential for a +4 to +5 SD  500 mb block near Greenland. This is followed by a deep upper low and storm system crossing the Northeast approaching -4 SD. So more heavy rains and strong winds possible for our area with a late season higher elevation snow threat for portions of the Northeast. 
     

    2841A1EB-48EE-4AF2-850E-AB08EBE40A59.thumb.jpeg.345773701a820c4415a9e9b83fbe2319.jpeg

    980AF044-A2D3-4716-AA13-882AE2CA8DC7.thumb.jpeg.413f62bae64b27b25dfeccfcfef211ae.jpeg

     

    • Like 2
  5. 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    Better next week than on the day of the eclipse.

    I've been thinking for awhile now if next week is very rainy, it will increase the odds of better weather for the eclipse.

     

    Hopefully, the EPS high pressure forecast works out for the 8th.


    F8451FCD-B6DF-4CBF-9733-C6C037499EB3.thumb.png.ed8fe160c9635c2b501fd7fb7440fff5.png

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  6. 47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    In the end go west you'll rarely be wrong

    namconus_apcpn_neus_20.png

    Not surprising given the continuing record WAR and SE Ridge patterns since the 15-16 super El Niño.


    Near to record 500mb heights for Canadian Maritimes

    5EFFC1B9-BD8C-494F-AFC8-52E347C81106.thumb.jpeg.7c433aaf2fd6129b9325c121a3ba9a97.jpeg

     

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
  7. 23 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

    on the positive side a ridge this strong will bring down arctic high pressure and keep us clear for the eclipse maybe?

     

    I am hoping the EPS idea of the pattern drying out during the eclipse week is correct. But a daily forecast that far out will always be low skill. 
     

    D6D33F6E-0EBA-467F-95FD-F79473711776.thumb.png.1d300f6c5a13b903d1be1f28d914cb31.png

     

    • Like 1
  8. Parts of the area could go over 12.00 on the month with this event and a bunch over 10.00.

     

    Data for March 1, 2024 through March 27, 2024
    Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
    State
    Name
    Station Type
    Total Precipitation 
    NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.93
    CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.83
    NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.51
    CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.46
    CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.34
    CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.23
    NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 10.18
    CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.12
    CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 10.05
    NY ST. JAMES COOP 9.93
    CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.93
    CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.90
    NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.89
    CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.83
    NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.82
    CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 9.80
    NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 9.79
    CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 9.76
    CT GUILFORD COOP 9.63
    CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.63
    NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.59
    CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 9.56
    NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.52
    NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.46
    NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.34
    CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.31
    NY CENTERPORT COOP 9.29
    CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.27
    CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.24
    NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 9.22
    CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.21
    CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.20
    NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20
    CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20
    CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.14
    CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.12
    CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.11
    CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.11
    NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.10
    • Like 1
  9. 3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

    @bluewave why do you think we keep getting a stronger passage in p8-1 outside DJF 

    I guess the orientation of the marine heatwaves in the MJO 4-7 zones holds the convection there longer during the winter. Then the last 2 years the convection finally was able to shift at some point in March. Our last solid winter month here was Jan 22 when the MJO was able to linger in 8. 

    F90A0E85-64C1-4E13-8D63-F76DEE2A437C.thumb.gif.d951a54998aa5e8044a255643be53706.gif
    8EA0C597-222E-43A5-A699-B4E4E2B71F4D.thumb.gif.e786eaa3d4f09036e87987c6e6ce6133.gif

    4DA40F71-EDD3-4C56-BE05-81186C9BF91B.thumb.gif.afc62222047a0a50da2e4d05de37dcb0.gif

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 3
  10. 9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

    Tell us you wouldn't enjoy a snowstorm at the end of May? Of course you would. I'll wishcast that storm right now B) 

    This blocking pattern going into April looks legit. MJO 8-1 is teaming up with a wave break for Greenland blocking. While the higher elevations are always favored for April snows, this is the type of pattern that could produce a trace that doesn’t accumulate  much closer to the coast. I guess it would be like what happened in May 2020. Late season blocks have been becoming more common in recent years. 
     

     

    • Like 5
  11. 8 minutes ago, lee59 said:

    Last month at this time 8% of the country had snow cover, as of yesterday 48% of the country had snow cover.

    Approaching the middle of the pack for late March but lower than the record highs were seeing at this time last year.


    4D5A256F-0224-444E-9189-8A752A877FF8.png.23b473282fe8abf38502bcfa0bdb8b1d.png
     

     

  12. 2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

    It either phases or it acts as a kicker. Really no in between IMO.

    I'm not leaning one way or the other yet.

    The two streams eventually phase on the EPS by the time it gets east of New England and becomes a potent 50/50 low. A sooner phase like the UK /CMC will just mean heavier rain totals than a later one further east of New England. Either way it looks like more rain for us later in the week. That low creates the wave break and Greenland block then the follow up systems behind are more opportunities for rain into April.

     

    D5D7AAEB-BFAC-4F39-BD94-67BE7E774FAC.thumb.png.0facbc787f9e8fcbd5d44b76c08a75b9.png


    23DD25AE-BECD-432F-BA56-62FAD6B059F7.thumb.png.a1f24ad2203d85aa60760f665349b1a3.png

     

    • Like 4
  13. It will be interesting to track the evolving storm details for later in the week. It looks like there will be a powerful phase involved. So the timing will be important as to how much heavy rains the region can get. It is also forecast to generate an impressive wave break which could set up a strong Greenland block into early April. That would mean a continued stormy pattern and probably limit the number of 70° days until the blocking relaxes a bit. 

    4B9EA5C3-AB0A-4B1B-A611-5C9DBA5CF0BA.thumb.png.af0611197223a4aa956374a1cadd9b0e.png

    227BF89D-3CC9-4140-9F00-01563BE41689.thumb.png.6a54c2e2aa148aad1763bd5d056d28c9.png

    3181373C-8F48-47F7-A362-FC063D8B4A38.thumb.png.e0bb9e982c17e361b7950505a576a6bf.png

     

    • Like 3
    • Sad 3
  14. That storm later this week should allow several stations to cross the 10” mark for the month.

     

    Data for March 1, 2024 through March 24, 2024
    Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
    State
    Name
    Station Type
    Total Precipitation 
    NY ST. JAMES COOP 9.93
    CT GUILFORD COOP 9.63
    NY CENTERPORT COOP 9.29
    CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.14
    CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 9.09
    NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 9.03
    NJ HARRISON COOP 8.82
    NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 8.79
    NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 8.78
    NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 8.41
    NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 8.41
    CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 8.40
    CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 8.31
    NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 8.31
    NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8.24
    • Like 1
  15. 1 hour ago, chubbs said:

    Yes we are still breaking daily re-analysis records, but not by "gobsmacking" amounts like we were in the second half of last year. Anomalies are running closer to where you would expect them to be, above last year and moderately above 2016, the last strong nino. We have been in a rough anomaly plateau since last September. With la nina developing, and normal seasonal effects, would expect anomalies to begin to drop soon, similar to 2016, and to cool below 2023 later in the year. We'll see.

     

    Screenshot 2024-03-24 at 07-53-14 Climate Pulse.png

    Yeah, the second half of 2023 was so much more extreme than anything we have seen before.

     

     

    • Like 1
    • Weenie 1
  16. 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    Despite record warmth this month we're still getting late freezes.

    29F this morning

    If we had another week of the 65-75+ warmth and then got hit with these freezes we would have seen a lot of bloom damage. 

    It figures the MJO would wait until March to finally go into phase 8 like last year. 

     

    Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
    Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
    Ending Date
    Lowest Min Temperature Mar 19 to Mar 31
    Missing Count
    2024-03-31 29 8
    2023-03-31 29 0


    6E03B614-03FD-4B11-A8B5-98EADFE8BC0B.thumb.gif.ea26292590e68eaa616c7721bcf13280.gif

    47F18EB1-0EF9-491E-BEB1-460F452CC059.thumb.jpeg.5fee752ec9b0ff67d8ff3f541e97b766.jpeg

     

    • Like 2
  17. 3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

    3.66" at NYC, ranks third highest daily rainfall in March. 

    Yeah, a top 3 finish with JFK recording it’s wettest March.

    Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation 
    for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
    Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
    Rank
    Value
    Ending Date
    Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-03-23
    1 4.25 1876-03-25
    2 3.86 2010-03-13
    3 3.66 2024-03-23
    4 3.44 1977-03-22
    5 3.10 1983-03-18
    6 2.98 2005-03-28
    7 2.95 1914-03-01
    8 2.94 1901-03-11
    9 2.63 1979-03-06
    10 2.61 1953-03-13


     

    Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar
    Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
    Rank
    Year
    Total Precipitation 
    Missing Count
    1 2024 8.79 8
    2 2010 8.62 0
    3 1980 8.17 0
    4 1953 7.93 0
    5 2001 7.00 0
    6 1993 6.83 0
    7 1983 6.66 0
    8 1984 5.99 0
    9 2017 5.79 0
    • Thanks 2
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