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Posts posted by bluewave
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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
I don’t think this block orientation would have worked in January. It looks to far south to me which links the ridge off The Atlantic. It also should be noted the pac is still a mess. While it’s enough to give us a awful start to April, I feel it would have been more of the same in January
@bluewave thoughts?
Yeah, I think we still would have had P-Type issues near the coast even in January since the Southeast ridge is forecast to be very strong a day before the storm next week. This allows the primary to ride pretty far north before the coastal eventually takes over. So a continuation of these -NAOs and -AOs linking up with the WAR or Southeast ridge.
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12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
Not much still open unfortunately. Killington always goes super late though and would benefit
I started the general April thread to discuss that storm potential for the first week of April.
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Unusually amplified start to April with one of the strongest west based blocks that we have seen in early April. Models indicating the potential for a +4 to +5 SD 500 mb block near Greenland. This is followed by a deep upper low and storm system crossing the Northeast approaching -4 SD. So more heavy rains and strong winds possible for our area with a late season higher elevation snow threat for portions of the Northeast.
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57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Huge batch of rain sw of phl will be moving in late this afternoon
Some thunderstorms earlier in that batch.
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Parts of the area could go over 12.00 on the month with this event and a bunch over 10.00.
Data for March 1, 2024 through March 27, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.StateNameStation TypeTotal PrecipitationNY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.93 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.83 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.51 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.46 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.34 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.23 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 10.18 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.12 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 10.05 NY ST. JAMES COOP 9.93 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.93 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.90 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.89 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.83 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.82 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 9.80 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 9.79 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 9.76 CT GUILFORD COOP 9.63 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.63 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.59 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 9.56 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.52 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.46 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.34 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.31 NY CENTERPORT COOP 9.29 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.27 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.24 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 9.22 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.21 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.20 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.14 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.12 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.11 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.11 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.10 - 1
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It least some of the higher elevations were able to reach average snowfall with the recent storm.
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50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Brutal…
Yeah, strongest subsidence over the Maritime Continent for the whole year so far.
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3 hours ago, Allsnow said:
@bluewave why do you think we keep getting a stronger passage in p8-1 outside DJF
I guess the orientation of the marine heatwaves in the MJO 4-7 zones holds the convection there longer during the winter. Then the last 2 years the convection finally was able to shift at some point in March. Our last solid winter month here was Jan 22 when the MJO was able to linger in 8.
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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:
Coastals galore on the gfs
Mjo 8
Northern England really cashes in on the gfs
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9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:
Tell us you wouldn't enjoy a snowstorm at the end of May? Of course you would. I'll wishcast that storm right now
This blocking pattern going into April looks legit. MJO 8-1 is teaming up with a wave break for Greenland blocking. While the higher elevations are always favored for April snows, this is the type of pattern that could produce a trace that doesn’t accumulate much closer to the coast. I guess it would be like what happened in May 2020. Late season blocks have been becoming more common in recent years.
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8 minutes ago, lee59 said:
Last month at this time 8% of the country had snow cover, as of yesterday 48% of the country had snow cover.
Approaching the middle of the pack for late March but lower than the record highs were seeing at this time last year.
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2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:
It either phases or it acts as a kicker. Really no in between IMO.
I'm not leaning one way or the other yet.
The two streams eventually phase on the EPS by the time it gets east of New England and becomes a potent 50/50 low. A sooner phase like the UK /CMC will just mean heavier rain totals than a later one further east of New England. Either way it looks like more rain for us later in the week. That low creates the wave break and Greenland block then the follow up systems behind are more opportunities for rain into April.
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It will be interesting to track the evolving storm details for later in the week. It looks like there will be a powerful phase involved. So the timing will be important as to how much heavy rains the region can get. It is also forecast to generate an impressive wave break which could set up a strong Greenland block into early April. That would mean a continued stormy pattern and probably limit the number of 70° days until the blocking relaxes a bit.
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That storm later this week should allow several stations to cross the 10” mark for the month.
Data for March 1, 2024 through March 24, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.StateNameStation TypeTotal PrecipitationNY ST. JAMES COOP 9.93 CT GUILFORD COOP 9.63 NY CENTERPORT COOP 9.29 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.14 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 9.09 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 9.03 NJ HARRISON COOP 8.82 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 8.79 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 8.78 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 8.41 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 8.41 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 8.40 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 8.31 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 8.31 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8.24 - 1
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1 hour ago, chubbs said:
Yes we are still breaking daily re-analysis records, but not by "gobsmacking" amounts like we were in the second half of last year. Anomalies are running closer to where you would expect them to be, above last year and moderately above 2016, the last strong nino. We have been in a rough anomaly plateau since last September. With la nina developing, and normal seasonal effects, would expect anomalies to begin to drop soon, similar to 2016, and to cool below 2023 later in the year. We'll see.
Yeah, the second half of 2023 was so much more extreme than anything we have seen before.
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25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:
Despite record warmth this month we're still getting late freezes.
29F this morning
If we had another week of the 65-75+ warmth and then got hit with these freezes we would have seen a lot of bloom damage.
It figures the MJO would wait until March to finally go into phase 8 like last year.
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Ending DateLowest Min Temperature Mar 19 to Mar 31Missing Count2024-03-31 29 8 2023-03-31 29 0 - 2
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Record air and sea surface temperatures continue.
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3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:
3.66" at NYC, ranks third highest daily rainfall in March.
Yeah, a top 3 finish with JFK recording it’s wettest March.
Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.RankValueEnding DatePeriod of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-03-23 1 4.25 1876-03-25 2 3.86 2010-03-13 3 3.66 2024-03-23 4 3.44 1977-03-22 5 3.10 1983-03-18 6 2.98 2005-03-28 7 2.95 1914-03-01 8 2.94 1901-03-11 9 2.63 1979-03-06 10 2.61 1953-03-13
Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.RankYearTotal PrecipitationMissing Count1 2024 8.79 8 2 2010 8.62 0 3 1980 8.17 0 4 1953 7.93 0 5 2001 7.00 0 6 1993 6.83 0 7 1983 6.66 0 8 1984 5.99 0 9 2017 5.79 0 - 2
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April 2024
in New York City Metro
Posted
The block is so strong since we recently saw the big PV disruption. Then we got the tropics on board with the MJO 8-1 followed by the wave break. The reason the mountains are favored this time around is that it’s so much warmer than 1996,2003, and 2018. Plus the seasonal storm tracks those years were much more favorable for us.