bluewave

That the potential is there for winds to beat expectations.

It’s an unusual sounding for this area since we usually doesn’t see an inversion with such a strong easterly jet below the inversion level with this much MUCAPE.

Yeah, very strong winds just above the deck along the Jersey Shore. Coastal sections could see an impressive wind event from the east as the models have a tighter gradient now. This is in top of the heavy rain potential.

While we already knew this, it’s good to see the figures. My guess this is related to the long range Euro inability to see the stronger MJO 4-7 influence. The lower skill shows the competing influences of these marine heatwaves made the stock El Niño forecast less likely compared to previous El Niños.

Depends on how much we can dry out after this week and reduce the onshore flow. The first 80° of the season will be later than average since 2010 due to all the clouds and record rainfall and onshore flow. But we should at least be able to make it back to around 70° by the 2nd week of April. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-25 (2010) 167 Mean 03-31 10-12 193 Maximum 04-18 (2015) 11-07 (2022) 231 2023 04-06 (2023) 83 10-28 (2023) 84 204 2022 04-14 (2022) 88 11-07 (2022) 81 206 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 2015 04-18 (2015) 82 10-09 (2015) 81 173 2014 04-13 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 87 167 2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-07 (2013) 80 180 2012 04-15 (2012) 80 10-05 (2012) 81 172 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 2010 04-05 (2010) 81 09-25 (2010) 90 172

No since the major airports are right on the water.

The SPC HREF should be interesting next few days as this could be an unusually convective system near the secondary low. So rainfall totals and winds may exceed what the globals are showing. Plenty of MUCAPE showing up on hi res NAM.

This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year.

Yeah, pretty much. You can see why they radiate better than other spots in NYC. Also why the sea breeze is such a big influence there during the summer. They would probably have more 90° days if the ASOS was on a further NW section of the airport near South Ozone Park or Howard Beach. It’s one of our biggest airports at nearly 5000 acres.

The actual JFK ASOS is very close to Woodmere.

The Howard beach site is quite a distance from the JFK ASOS. The ASOS in JFK is in the eastern portion of the airport next to the 5 towns area of Nassau. This is why JFK radiates better than other portions of NYC. So the JFK ASOS is more than 5 miles away from Howard Beach site since the airport is so big. This is also why the snowfall totals between the sites can be so great.

In the old days a hostile Pacific didn’t didn’t feature the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. This is more a feature of the 2020s -NAO patterns. My guess is that this is related to the record Atlantic SSTs.

Numerous stations with 10.00+ of precipitation this month. Monthly Data for March 2024 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 12.61 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 12.37 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.15 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.96 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.93 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 11.75 NY ST. JAMES COOP 11.64 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 11.58 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.50 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 11.47 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 11.40 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.36 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 11.30 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.27 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 11.25 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.18 CT GUILFORD COOP 11.17 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.16 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 11.07 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.05 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 11.03 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 10.94 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.94 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.89 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.83 NY CENTERPORT COOP 10.82 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 10.78 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 10.69 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 10.65 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 10.63 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 10.62 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.61 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.47 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.46 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 10.45 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.45 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 10.38 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.37 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 10.36 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.28 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.25 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.17 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 10.15 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.11 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 10.07 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.05 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 10.02

We can add March 2024 to the list with numerous stations recording over 10.00. Monthly Data for March 2024 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 12.61 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 12.37 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.15 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.96 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.93 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 11.75 NY ST. JAMES COOP 11.64 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 11.58 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.50 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 11.47 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 11.40 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.36 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 11.30 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.27 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 11.25 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 11.18 CT GUILFORD COOP 11.17 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.16 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 11.07 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.05 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 11.03 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 10.94 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.94 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.89 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.83 NY CENTERPORT COOP 10.82 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 10.78 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 10.69 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 10.65 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 10.63 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 10.62 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.61 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.47 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.46 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 10.45 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.45 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 10.38 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.37 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 10.36 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.28 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.25 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.17 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 10.15 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.11 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 10.07 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.05 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 10.02

0z guidance coming in stronger with the primary now which is cutting to Chicago instead of Buffalo with the stronger Southeast ridge forcing the phasing further west. So this could set a new record for one of our longest and slowest spring cutoffs. Models still have showers and clouds into Saturday with the cutoff low. New run stronger Southeast ridge linking up with -NAO forcing phase and primary low further west Old run weaker Southeast ridge Even older run with a more suppressed Southeast ridge

The Southeast ridge has become a big player since the 15-16 super El Niño. New run Old run

Yeah, these -NAO patterns have been changing in recent years. They have tended to link up with the Southeast ridge more. My guess is that it’s related to the record Atlantic SSTs and possibly other marine heatwaves across the planet. We have seen how models have been underestimating this factor longer range. So storm systems start out days 6-10 more suppressed and colder only to correct more north or northwest and warmer under 5 days. I know people follow the model headline scores for the Northern Hemisphere. But this issue near the East Coast isn’t something that shows up in these model forecast statistics. So we have to take this model bias into account when looking at longer range forecasts.

Models feeling the stronger Southeast ridge now so the 0z guidance came further north. Same northward correction we have been seeing all winter. The good news now is that it’s April and most people would want a warmer solution. So a continuation of the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. Also a trend to deeper primary so the secondary isn’t nearly as strong as in earlier runs. Still a good soaker for the area but with a less intense low pressure. New run Old run

Yeah, the Euro tropical forecast from March 5th was already the strongest for so early in the season. So the update coming on April 5th should be interesting. All-time Atlantic SST warmth for so early on the season coupled with a strong La Niña signal.

It got to 36° for a high. 1923-04-01 36 12

Our climate has warmed way too much to ever see April cold like that again. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1923 12 0 2 1874 20 0 3 1982 21 0 - 1881 21 0 4 1919 22 0 - 1875 22 1 5 1995 23 0 - 1954 23 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1982 30 0 - 1881 30 0 2 1879 32 0 - 1875 32 1 3 1938 33 0 4 1944 34 0 - 1943 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 5 1940 35 0 - 1918 35 0 - 1911 35 0 - 1870 35 1

Our climate is much too warm now to ever see Arctic cold like that again in April.

Not close since that had a 100 year Arctic outbreak in April which was the last time NYC set 3 consecutive low temperatures. It was also the last time NYC had afternoon temperatures in April in the 20s. That was the tail end of the mini ice age we had in the late 70s before our temperatures really began to take off.

The block is so strong since we recently saw the big PV disruption. Then we got the tropics on board with the MJO 8-1 followed by the wave break. The reason the mountains are favored this time around is that it’s so much warmer than 1996,2003, and 2018. Plus the seasonal storm tracks those years were much more favorable for us.

Yeah, I think we still would have had P-Type issues near the coast even in January since the Southeast ridge is forecast to be very strong a day before the storm next week. This allows the primary to ride pretty far north before the coastal eventually takes over. So a continuation of these -NAOs and -AOs linking up with the WAR or Southeast ridge.