bluewave

The main challenge for the area is that the last freeze date is similar to 1951-1980 but first 70s and 80s of spring are arriving much earlier. So this has lead to the damaging spring freezes across the northeast especially in the interior. The historic damaging freeze last May to our north matched the pattern of early season warmth causing blooms which were followed by a damaging hard freeze. We can understand that as the climate continues to warm spring will arrive earlier with the quicker blooms. But the last freeze date has not changed as much and needs some further investigation. My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking from the EPO to NAO regions recently is allowing the last freeze date to remain more constant relative to earlier eras. I will use Newark as an example of this pattern that shows up to varying degrees across the region. Newark 2010-2023 Last 32°…. 04-04…last 30s…04-21 First 70°…..03-07…first 80°….03-31 1951-1980 Last 32°…..04-04…..last 30s…04-22 First 70°.….03-26….first 80°…..04-22

Tonight looks like it will be colder especially in the areas that radiate well. 20s possible in the Pine Barrens at FOK as the big high moves over the area. So a freeze is possible in the outlying areas. The CAA this morning had a bit of an easterly component and was weaker with some clouds which came in warmer than guidance.

Extent has been changing more slowly now that most of the older multiyear sea ice is gone. The 2007 season marked a fundamental shift in Arctic sea ice to this new state. No matter what summer conditions have occurred since then, we have not been able to get close to pre-2007 ice in thickness or extent. So it will probably turn out to be a bigger turning point in the history of the Arctic than the first technically ice free season under 1 million square km. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/with-thick-ice-gone-arctic-sea-ice-changes-more-slowly The Arctic Ocean's sea ice blanket has already lost most of its old ice and two-thirds of its thickness. The younger ice is thinning more slowly and variably. The Arctic Ocean's blanket of sea ice has changed since 1958 from predominantly older, thicker ice to mostly younger, thinner ice, according to new research published by NASA scientist Ron Kwok of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. With so little thick, old ice left, the rate of decrease in ice thickness has slowed. New ice grows faster but is more vulnerable to weather and wind, so ice thickness is now more variable, rather than dominated by the effect of global warming. Working from a combination of satellite records and declassified submarine sonar data, NASA scientists have constructed a 60-year record of Arctic sea ice thickness. Right now, Arctic sea ice is the youngest and thinnest its been since we started keeping records. More than 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now seasonal, which means it grows in the winter and melts in the summer, but doesn't last from year to year. This seasonal ice melts faster and breaks up easier, making it much more susceptible to wind and atmospheric conditions. Kwok's research, published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, combined decades of declassified U.S. Navy submarine measurements with more recent data from four satellites to create the 60-year record of changes in Arctic sea ice thickness. He found that since 1958, Arctic ice cover has lost about two-thirds of its thickness, as averaged across the Arctic at the end of summer. Older ice has shrunk in area by almost 800,000 square miles (more than 2 million square kilometers). Today, 70 percent of the ice cover consists of ice that forms and melts within a single year, which scientists call seasonal ice. Sea ice of any age is frozen ocean water. However, as sea ice survives through several melt seasons, its characteristics change. Multiyear ice is thicker, stronger and rougher than seasonal ice. It is much less salty than seasonal ice; Arctic explorers used it as drinking water. Satellite sensors observe enough of these differences that scientists can use spaceborne data to distinguish between the two types of ice. Thinner, weaker seasonal ice is innately more vulnerable to weather than thick, multiyear ice. It can be pushed around more easily by wind, as happened in the summer of 2013. During that time, prevailing winds piled up the ice cover against coastlines, which made the ice cover thicker for months. The ice's vulnerability may also be demonstrated by the increased variation in Arctic sea ice thickness and extent from year to year over the last decade. In the past, sea ice rarely melted in the Arctic Ocean. Each year, some multiyear ice flowed out of the ocean into the East Greenland Sea and melted there, and some ice grew thick enough to survive the melt season and become multiyear ice. As air temperatures in the polar regions have warmed in recent decades, however, large amounts of multiyear ice now melt within the Arctic Ocean itself. Far less seasonal ice now thickens enough over the winter to survive the summer. As a result, not only is there less ice overall, but the proportions of multiyear ice to seasonal ice have also changed in favor of the young ice. Seasonal ice now grows to a depth of about six feet (two meters) in winter, and most of it melts in summer. That basic pattern is likely to continue, Kwok said. "The thickness and coverage in the Arctic are now dominated by the growth, melting and deformation of seasonal ice." The increase in seasonal ice also means record-breaking changes in ice cover such as those of the 1990s and 2000s are likely to be less common, Kwok noted. In fact, there has not been a new record sea ice minimum since 2012, despite years of warm weather in the Arctic. "We've lost so much of the thick ice that changes in thickness are going to be slower due to the different behavior of this ice type," Kwok said. Kwok used data from U.S. Navy submarine sonars from 1958 to 2000; satellite altimeters on NASA's ICESat and the European CryoSat-2, which span from 2003 to 2018; and scatterometer measurements from NASA's QuikSCAT and the European ASCAT from 1999 to 2017.

5-22-02 was their latest freeze. Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2002 05-22 (2002) 32 10-15 (2002) 31 145 2016 05-20 (2016) 32 10-11 (2016) 31 143 2008 05-20 (2008) 31 10-07 (2008) 31 139 2003 05-19 (2003) 32 10-03 (2003) 29 136 2023 05-18 (2023) 29 11-04 (2023) 32 169

Sometimes we just have to do the best we can with the options we have at any given time. Natural gas is much better for air pollution than coal is. I used to live a few miles from the Natural gas generating electricity station in Island Park. It was much better for the air quality than having a coal plant would have been. Between 2005 and 2016, the shift away from coal saved an estimated 26,610 lives and 570 million bushels of crops https://gpsnews.ucsd.edu/shutdown-of-coal-fired-plants-in-u-s-saves-lives-and-improves-crop-yields/

The 18th was the 5th latest freeze on record for FOK. Data for May 18, 2023 through May 18, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 28 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 29 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 29 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 30 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 30 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 31 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 31 CT GUILFORD COOP 31 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 33 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 33 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 33 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 34 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 34 NY ST. JAMES COOP 35 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 35 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 35 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 36 NY WEST POINT COOP 36 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 37 NY SYOSSET COOP 37 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 37 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 38 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 38 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 39 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 39 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 40 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 40 NY CENTERPORT COOP 40 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 41 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 42 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 42 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 43 NJ HARRISON COOP 43 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 44 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 45 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 46

The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet. Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 110 0 2 2009 104 0 - 1981 104 0 4 1994 102 0 5 2006 101 0 6 2023 100 2 - 1998 100 0 - 1978 100 0 - 1961 100 0 - 1960 100 0 - 1956 100 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1953 105 0 - 1949 105 0 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105

One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen. Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers. In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph. To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. “We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.” The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be. “I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said. The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit.

We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall.

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.

Near record late April temperature drop from Wednesday into Thursday for a little over 12 hours. Highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 60s to around 70°. Then temperatures falling as much as 35° into the 30s by Thursday morning. The usual colder spots could see a freeze or even hard freeze the further north and west you go into the interior Northeast.

The memorable cold combined with snow at times records since 09-10 have pretty much been one hit wonders. We haven’t seen a repeat of the June-July 2009 average high at Newark staying under 80°. Same goes for the record October snowstorm in 2011 all the way down to Central Park. The February 2015 -10 or lower departure looks safe also. Plus the first below zero in NYC during February 2015 since January 1994 also looks hard to beat for the month of February.

That combination of snow and cold in May was probably a one-off in our much warmer climate.

Early indications are that the blocking will extend at least into early May. So the exact position of the back door will probably have to wait until we are under 120 hrs. Record blocking across Canada since last May.

2020 set the record for latest 34° on record in NYC. The last time NYC had a freeze after 4-20 was in 1930. May 2020 was also the 3rd coldest low temperature on record in NYC. JFK tied with 1966 for the coldest reading ever in the month of May. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2020 05-09 (2020) 34 10-31 (2020) 32 174 1891 05-06 (1891) 32 11-03 (1891) 33 180 1874 05-03 (1874) 33 11-12 (1874) 32 192 1876 04-30 (1876) 34 10-15 (1876) 32 167 1883 04-29 (1883) 34 11-12 (1883) 30 196 Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1891 05-06 (1891) 32 11-04 (1891) 30 181 1874 04-30 (1874) 32 11-12 (1874) 32 195 1919 04-26 (1919) 31 11-14 (1919) 30 201 1892 04-25 (1892) 32 11-11 (1892) 32 199 1888 04-25 (1888) 31 11-17 (1888) 30 205 1930 04-24 (1930) 31 11-06 (1930) 31 195 1872 04-23 (1872) 29 11-16 (1872) 30 206 1875 04-22 (1875) 28 11-02 (1875) 31 193 1925 04-21 (1925) 32 10-29 (1925) 31 190 1922 04-21 (1922) 32 11-21 (1922) 32 213 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1891 32 0 2 1874 33 0 3 2020 34 0 4 1947 35 0 - 1880 35 0 5 1977 36 0 - 1966 36 0 - 1913 36 0 - 1876 36 1 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 34 0 - 1966 34 0 2 1992 37 0 3 2008 38 0 - 1977 38 0 - 1970 38 0 - 1956 38 0

Warmth will attempt to make a push into the region by the weekend as the Southeast ridge flexes. But it’s uncertain how much of a 50/50 low will try to hold on. So the location of any backdoor will determine how warm we can get. The models have been jumping around much more than usual even for the day 6-10 period recently. Very strong west based block near Hudson Bay this month.

The last times NYC dropped under 40° after 4-20 was back in 2021 and 2020. The rarest was during early May in 2020 when it snowed. That was probably the most anomalous cold event of the 2020s so far. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Apr 21 to May 31 Missing Count 2023-05-31 43 0 2022-05-31 40 0 2021-05-31 36 0 2020-05-31 34 0 2019-05-31 41 0 2018-05-31 39 0 2017-05-31 44 0 2016-05-31 43 0 2015-05-31 38 0 2014-05-31 41 0 2013-05-31 37 0 2012-05-31 38 0 2011-05-31 40 0 2010-05-31 40 0

The -30C 850 mb temperature near James Bay is close to the record for late April. It looks like the TPV splits in a few days and a piece heads for Maine. So NYC has a shot at dipping under 40° with the interior northeast having a hard freeze potential.

Any system based on polarities like ours always runs the risk of falling out of balance. I would like to think that we can eventually shift our consciousness to a higher level which recognizes that we are part of nature rather than separate from it. But it may take until sea level rise begins to inundate our coastal cities or major crop failures occur due to extreme weather and climate events. Climate warming is still too much of an abstraction for society at large to begin to contemplate. The best we can do right now is for like minded individuals to take this information and make any adaptations we can for a much more extreme climate in the future. It’s a bit of a paradox that the very nature of our evolution on this planet has selected more short term gains rather than long term sustainability. That’s how we have wound up with so many environmental degradation issues which are facing us. At some point we need to use our inherent creativity to override these outdated modes of existence which may have served prehistoric societies short term survival needs but have to be modernized for our current situation. Short term thinking served our ancestors coming out of the caves who had to be on guard in order to quickly get away from dangerous animals. Now we need to use our higher nature to shift toward an existence more in alignment with nature and fellow humans.

Models back to a stronger cold front this week with a piece of the TPV heading for Maine. So interior sections need to watch for a hard freeze. NYC may dip below 40° which will feel very chilly for late April. The low pressure will become the new 50/50 low which has been so persistent since late March. So more continuing backdoor potential.

Mostly driven by the warm minimums due to all the clouds, showers, and onshore flow keeping the high temperatures in check. The average high temperature is nearly 10° colder than last April. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 19 Missing Count 1 2023-04-19 70.6 0 2 2010-04-19 69.7 0 3 2002-04-19 69.1 0 4 1945-04-19 67.5 0 5 2012-04-19 67.0 0 6 1981-04-19 66.7 0 7 1941-04-19 66.2 0 8 2006-04-19 65.9 0 9 1968-04-19 65.5 0 10 2017-04-19 65.4 0 11 1976-04-19 65.0 0 12 1994-04-19 64.6 0 13 1955-04-19 64.3 0 14 1959-04-19 64.2 0 15 1991-04-19 63.8 0 16 2019-04-19 63.6 0 - 2005-04-19 63.6 0 17 1969-04-19 63.4 0 18 2015-04-19 62.9 0 - 1999-04-19 62.9 0 19 1974-04-19 62.8 0 20 1963-04-19 62.7 0 21 2014-04-19 62.5 0 - 1977-04-19 62.5 0 22 1985-04-19 62.4 0 23 2013-04-19 62.3 0 24 2008-04-19 61.9 0 25 1998-04-19 61.6 0 26 2024-04-19 61.5 0

No, the Greenland block is still going strong plus we have a -EPO. That MJO 8 back in late March reset the whole pattern to more blocking with a stronger 50/50 low. This pattern maintains a backdoor nearby with only brief warm ups between plenty of onshore flow, clouds, and showers. Canada is starting to get cold after so much record winter warmth. Figures the relaxation from MJO 4-7 would wait until the spring.

Nice improvements today on the 12z Euro. While there will still be a near record polar vortex near James Bay next week, the cold goes more to the east rather than the south. So the lowest NYC may get next week is the 40s rather than the 30s which were shown yesterday. But we’ll continue to watch further runs since these forecasts involving a PV nearby in Canada can jump around a lot from run to run. This is more something we see in the winter rather than in late April. New run Old run

You should probably invest in a set up like this.

They were a few degrees warmer for the high temperatures. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 2009-07-31 79.8 0 2 1969-07-31 80.8 0 3 1972-07-31 80.9 0 4 1985-07-31 81.0 0 - 1979-07-31 81.0 0 - 1958-07-31 81.0 0 5 1996-07-31 81.3 0 - 1947-07-31 81.3 0 6 2000-07-31 81.4 0 - 1945-07-31 81.4 0 7 2003-07-31 81.5 0 - 1936-07-31 81.5 0 8 1956-07-31 81.6 0 9 1967-07-31 81.7 0 10 1982-07-31 81.8 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 2009-07-31 91 0 2 1996-07-31 92 0 - 1979-07-31 92 0 - 1960-07-31 92 0 3 1976-07-31 93 0 - 1970-07-31 93 0 4 1985-07-31 94 0 - 1975-07-31 94 0 - 1939-07-31 94 0 - 1938-07-31 94 0 5 2003-07-31 95 0 - 1973-07-31 95 0 - 1967-07-31 95 0 - 1946-07-31 95 0