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daxx

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    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Red tagger just made this post in the thread to our south - this really resonates with me. I bolded what I've been saying for some time. I particularly like the last statement. 

     

    During La Niña, models tend to over amplify weather systems several days out from onset. Overamped, too much moisture, only to see it correct toward the onset time. This latest event is a prime example as across the board guidance was giving a 6-10” area wide event and more like 10”+ on the euro, only to cave to a minor system...even by I-70 standards. Last storm very similar with the euro giving 25-30” at day 4/5 only to be cut back. For the hobbyist, it might be a sting to the gut, but for those working in the field, the inconsistency and wild swings have made forecast ops and communication to high level partners even up into high tier Gov partners a nightmare! Briefings for these “major” events that crop up at day 3-5 in NWP gain attention quickly then to have the rug pulled after you’ve messaged people is tough. One factor, could be minor, but it is a factor in such inconsistent data is the lack of domestic air travel in the U.S. we know the euro model in particular relies on aircraft data which air travel is 1/10th of what it was. Same with other guidance. Perhaps other factors we don’t know about. Niña years are tough as it is. Two conclusions I can draw from this season is... 1) the euro is not what the euro was, and 2) the NAM is useful outside its perceived “wheelhouse”. NAM is great at depicting changes, details in the pattern evolution that is not seen in the globals. It’s done well this season in that regard, overdone with front end waa snow.  3) it’s guidance only! Not verbatim. Know your patterns and climo vs model chasing. 

     

    I guess I’m just not good at reading the nam.  I use it  for temps and severe, but not much else. You guys are far better than me at this so maybe I should use it more. I will say I don’t model chase.  

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    This is probably the only thing we disagree on buddy. I do like the NAM a lot more than you do - in no way do I think it's great but I think it's better than what most give it credit for. It absolutely nailed the January 2016 storm, and as I recall it did well with some of the biggies back in '09-'10. 

    Honestly, this winter, I'm not trusting any model. :) 

    Sure it has it’s good moments, but if you ask me it has far more bad. If the model works for you then all is good.  I just look at it and move on. 

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    Looking further down the pike, I really wish next weeks midweek system had a nice HP up in quebec...that would really top off a great run...instead of washing a bunch of it away before we freeze.

    12z gfs says shit storm. 12z gfs para says nice clean snowstorm. 
     

    edit: I’ll take the cmc for that one as well. 

    • Like 1

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, Ruin said:

    now our artic airmass will only be here 2 days? highs in the low 20s for sundays snow but then shoot back up to the upper 30s to near 40 right after the storm?  im getting tired of them since last year saying the artic air is coming and it never comes. I just want a week or so of a good cold push i dont want rain or ice out of no where cause its to warm.

    Oh my...bitter cold is fun for a little, but boring unless you live near the Great Lakes. Give me an active pattern with cold nearby any day. 

    • Like 1
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