Stebo

Just like a blizzard or a major hurricane...

and anything in the gulf will be Katrina.

I'm not writing off anything, I just think that you don't realize just how epic 30 F4 and 6 F5 tornadoes are.

The odds of this being another 'super outbreak' with 30 F4s and 6 F5s is about 1 in 1 million. Sure there will be a great number of tornadoes tomorrow, but to even put this outbreak in the same breath as the Super Outbreak is just foolish.

Yeah Tennessee is going to have a long day today and tomorrow, and its already been a busy time in the past 36 hours.

There is certainly a potential of a High, of all 3 days Wednesday would be the one that has the highest potential get the High Risk designation.

Wow not often do you see such amazing shear coinciding with large instability like this.

Yeah Wednesday is starting to get that scary potential to it. Especially with the models uniformly trending left each run.

I'd certainly argue there is a growing potential further North on Wednesday per the latest model runs, SREF showing higher numbers much further North than previous runs too.

I'm guessing no.

Day 3 Mod too DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. FROM THE LOWER AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS EWD... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT S OF THE MAIN GREAT LAKES REGION LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL E OF THE MS VALLEY. ...PA/NW SSWWD TO THE GULF COAST... YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DAY 3 /WED. AND EARLY THU. APR. 27 AND 28/ -- WITH ELEVATED THREAT FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK EVIDENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS THE POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE KY/TN VICINITY...WITH LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE FLOW VEERING/INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG SHEAR...FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRIOR CONVECTION INDICATES A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE AREA OF CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE MODERATE RISK FORECAST ATTM -- INDICATIVE OF OUTBREAK POTENTIAL. ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FARTHER NNEWD INTO PA/NY -- INCLUDING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO EXTEND E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE CONVECTION...SEVERE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT CRESTS THE APPALACHIANS. ..GOSS.. 04/25/2011

Yeah, if it were to develop you'd have a severe backing of the winds at the surface, and the potential of significant tornado action would skyrocket.

Oh you are talking about that NAM meso low that formed? Yeah that definitely had a convectively induced look to it, although it is interesting that the other models all show it. Might be something to monitor the potential of as we move through next few days.

Amazing shear, but not a terribly high amount of instability in the sounding.

Yeah what I would pay to have Tuesday off so I could leave for Memphis after work today for 3 days.

Day 2 Moderate risk DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST/E COAST STATES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS ONE SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY SWWD INTO N TX...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION -- INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOCUSED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. ...ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS -- SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS UNFOLDING FOR THIS AREA FOR DAY 2 /TUE. AND EARLY WED./. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHIFTING EWD/ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS ALONG WITH ONGOING SEVERE POTENTIAL. GREATER SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS REGION HOWEVER WILL EVOLVE LATER IN THE DAY...AS AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEPARTING NEWD IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND/DIGGING FEATURE SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...BACKING/INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST...WITH A 70-PLUS KT LOW-LEVEL JET TO SHIFT EWD FROM NE TX ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE EVENING...BENEATH MID-LEVEL WLYS INCREASING TO 70 TO 80 KT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N TX AND AR TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY LATE. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE TX AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES EXPECTED. A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- SPREADING ACROSS NRN LA/AR AND THEN INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS LATE. ALONG WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR E AS MIDDLE TN/NRN AR/NWRN GA BY 27/12Z. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/OH AND TN VALLEYS... THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THIS AREA FOCUSING LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX. WHILE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...LOCAL AREAS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- AS FAR NE AS PA AND NY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA /LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM 50 TO 65 KT IN THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER/...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ALONG WITH LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS. ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AS THE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES...WITH SOME THREAT LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NY/PA/WV. ...CAROLINAS/VA... WEAK SHORT-WAVE FEATURES SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION -- EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD AHEAD ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH -- WILL SUPPORT A BROAD ZONE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OCCURING THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING THREATS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...WITH MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ATTM -- GIVEN THE BROAD/UNFOCUSED THREAT AREA.

Yeah Beau right now the GFS is on its own with the further SE track, all the rest are to the West of it.

Also further Northwest with the low on Wednesday Night compared to the GFS, which has agreement with the GGEM/UKMET/NAM, GFS is the furthest SE with this current forecast

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 VALID 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- ONGOING FROM THE DAY 3 /TUE. 4-26/ PERIOD -- IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES DAY 4 /WED. 4-27/...AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BOTH FORECAST EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CONTINUATION/REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER -- INCLUDING HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES -- SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF A LARGE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FOR DAY 4. MODEL TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIFFER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 5 /THU. 4-28/...THUS CASTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF THREAT E OF THE APPALACHIANS DAY 5. THEREFORE...WHILE POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF DAY 5...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE SWEPT OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 6 /FRI. 4-29/...FOCUS SHIFTS WWD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS ACROSS/OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE...AND THUS WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY LONGER-RANGE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST. Some 03z SREF maps too Monday Tuesday First look at Wednesday

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST SWWD INTO ERN TX/ERN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... AS ONE FEATURE ALOFT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...A SECOND WILL DIG QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS -- BOTH WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS...LEAVING BEHIND A TRAILING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX...A SECOND FRONTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP -- AND QUICKLY DEEPEN -- AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS TX AND INTO AR LATE. THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. ...ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA... COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS THIS REGION...AS PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION INVOF A SURFACE WARM FRONT RESULTS IN A SLOW INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY-APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE DIGGING SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE WARM FRONT -- THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP RAPIDLY FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN OK/E TX...AND THEN INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO NRN LA/AR AND EVENTUALLY THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND AS BACKING/INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE...SHEAR WILL BECOME HIGHLY-FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT FOCUSED ON AR AND VICINITY. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...UPGRADE TO HIGHER CATEGORY RISK APPEARS LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. ...SRN APPALACHIANS WWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION... PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT -- AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK/EMBEDDED FEATURES -- ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SERN U.S. -- FROM VA AND THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. WITH MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS A BROAD AREA...MULTICELL/LOCAL SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THIS REGION. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR ATTM...BUT WILL INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF THIS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... AS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFT QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. NARROWING DOWN EXACT AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A BROAD AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT/FAVORABLE SHEAR. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT ATTM...WILL INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODES OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST -- INCLUDING THREATS FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

Some 03 SREF images Sunday Monday Nothing particularly high yet but a persistent area over E OK/AR/MO region for right now.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 VALID 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAYS 4-6 /TUE. 4-26 THROUGH THU. 4-28/...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 ACROSS THE MS VALLEY DAY 5...AND THEN ON EWD THROUGH DAYS 6/7. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO EMERGE DAY 5...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7 AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE E COAST STATES/ERN ATLANTIC. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DAY 4 IS PROGGED FROM E TX NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD INTO THIS REGION...WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED/STRONG FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DAY 5...AS THE SHORT-WAVE FEATURE TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO EVEN NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THIS REGION. AGAIN -- AMPLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AS MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS...DEGREE OF THREAT SHIFTING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE DAY 5 AND INTO DAY 6 BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 7... SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. APPEARS LESS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS ONE EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND DIGS ESEWD OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ...ERN OK/NERN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEY REGION... RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES. WITH MODERATELY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FORECAST ATOP THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO AGAIN BECOME MOST INTENSE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- SIMILAR TO PRIOR DAYS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3 RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECISE LOCATION AND DEGREE OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF PROBABILITIES REFLECTIVE OF A FAIRLY ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT. Sounds like they wanted to go Mod but too many question marks at this junction to go mod.

I hope we get stuff on Monday, because Tuesday Evening I work and as much fun as a High Octane shift is, it would be nice to chase in MI too.

A little faster but at this point for the low's to only be apart by half a state, and both be in the same general location is pretty good.