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Everything posted by AllWeather
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Yupp. And does naughty things.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I remember Jan 2016 was showing up STRONG in the guidance at 6-7 days out. By day 4-5, there was this kind of consistency and it just locked in from there. -
Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
For the LSV folks: The 00z GFS has 2-2.5” liquid jackpot, all frozen, centered around Adams, York, and Lanc counties. Beautiful deform depiction with strong omega in the DGZ. Those aren’t 10:1 ratios after dark either. The 00z CMC shows a slight different solution, but the same shellacking on the thump, then a less robust deform band (at least in the LSV), but still puts down 2”+ liquid, all snow, in those same 3 counties - York, Adams, and Lanc. Pretty remarkable. -
Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
LSV getting hammered this run -
Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
As a Meteorologist by degree I think you have a prime spot. As a (now) Realtor in LancCo, you definitely have a prime spot. Win-win for you either way! -
Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thanks! Good to be back. -
Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Alright. Now I’m interested. -
I'm struggling with this one, to be honest. While many of the high-res & global models show us going straight to snow, the HRRR and the RPM (our in-house model) shows some rain to start with torched BL conditions. Is the HRRR overplaying the warmth? Probably. BUT it is initializing the closest with current obs, as we are a couple to a few degrees milder than the NAM/GFS/EURO...those models have us in the upper 20s right now. Yeah, we'll likely thump later today with temps cooling, but still slightly above freezing in the best thumping. In that case we'll still see accumulations. I'm wondering if the dyanamic elements producing better than 10:1 ratios helps overcome the burning of QPF on a warm BL. Anywho, we're going 3-7 for most of the region, especially the LSV, with lower amounts farther north.
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Thanks! Yeah, can't deny the trends. Interestingly enough, it's not really like the wave is much weaker (though it is a bit), but also oriented differently now that the northern stream is a bit sharper. So instead of more overrunning, we basically have to rely on a quick stripe of more dynamically driven stuff with the height of the storm. PS - Did the GFS just score another one?
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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion
AllWeather replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I think you guys have a pretty good handle on it. Reminds me of the November storm. I like 4-8” across the LSV before changing over. More in northern/western spots, especially at elevations. I’ve always tends to underperform from models but could see some 0.25” amounts with a few spots more than that in the typical sheltered “bowls”. -
No doubt the trend is there. Maybe the NAM scores one here. Of note is the strong easterly fetch of air by tomorrow morning. Off the mild ocean waters, can be underestimated by guidance. It has burned me several times in the past... Also, we’re sitting about 3-4 degrees warmer at the surface than the 0z NAM shows in soundings for this time. Not saying it means anything and it could even out in the wash, but something to watch. Not trying to be a buzz killington here, but these fine line set ups in November tend to pan out more toward the mixy scenario vs. the snowy one. There’s always an exception though, maybe this one is it? TBD
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Aloft in particular. Riding a very fine line between cold enough throughout the profile to support snow for longer. New NAM holds off the sleet a little longer than previous runs/other models because of the stronger omega in the DGZ, helps keep the column at/below freezing, and staves off the WAA aloft until later in the afternoon. If the omega is modeled too strong, then you don’t have that opportunity and you change over quickly. It really could go either way. If it’s all snow, it probably won’t be 10:1. Sloppy, wet, heavy stuff.
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Keep in mind, these are 10:1 output maps. Doesn’t factor in sleet. The model output for rimed flakes/sleet will add up as snow in this format. In this storm, Ferrier Method is superior over 10:1 maps. Cut those map map totals in half for the LSV, and it still might be overdone. Warm air aloft waits for no one.
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Thanks duderino!
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I just called CTP because I was confused and thought the same thing. They told me that when it comes to WSWarnings, there's a gray area with a mix of snow/ice where they can use their discretion to issue a Warnings or Advisory regardless of what the hard-lined all snow vs. all ice scenario criteria say. Their discretion in this case is factoring in that Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland, and Perry counties are more traveled than other counties. So while the amounts will be slightly higher than Advisory levels, the higher population and timing is being factored because it'll be more impactful. Oh, and hey guys! Winter is BACK!