Bubbler86

One suite is suppression, another a Motor City Cutter. Large differences in timing of NS vorts on the EC and GFS.

Euro an extreme cutter for 2/12 but could be what we need to actually open the door to cold air drainage.

Let's that the GEFS for example...it is just slowing bleeding to a point where I would say the pattern change (per se) has evolved into a colder regime on this map but colder and cold are 2 different things. If we were in a NS dominated flow, I would expect it to be much colder than this but if spilt stream, then we are fighting temps with this look. Timed right, we are good, timed wrong we are not. More looking at temps in Southern Canada vs over PA. Don't blame anyone for moving back a week on expectations now vs the 13th-18th time frame.

A real fascination with upper-level maps and trying to predict eventual ground truth. Not my expertise so cannot suggest anyone is wrong.

And despite it getting colder that 3rd week, still no dump of artic air into the US.

No interaction through 300 (snowing in Mexico though) despite what I thought was a chance a day earlier. Northern Stream dominated.

Would need some interaction with that NS energy to "bend the curve" a bit at 500.

264 looking interesting as to setup. Colder air in place.

And that is white rain (clipper).

Regardless of suppression, still no cold through mid-month. Lows the morning of the 13th are above freezing in the LSV.

About halfway through 12Z GFS. At that point, things are suppressed and tough to break that until 500 changes a bit.

Fortunately for you, it is not me it is "people" :-). Saw a line for mulch when passing Lowes yesterday.

If it stays below or near freezing, especially if windy, for a longish stretch I will not hear the end of the complaints from clients and friends. People are already starting their spring flings and doing stuff in the yard assuming this year will be like the last 8. Not going to stick my neck out and say whether it snows a lot or not. Not sure anyone on this earth has the ability to predict that.

If we start to see some real artic cold setting up on the MR and LR op's/eventual ground truth and we do have a 2-4 week period of "real winter temps" as predicted by some of the LR forecasters, it is going to be one of the bigger shocks to the public that they have had in a long time. Whether it snows a small amount or a lot, an extended period of true cold in late Feb or early March will seem much worse after our recent stretch of mild late Feb's. The last truly cold second half of February was in 2015 so an 8-year hiatus. March 2019 had a 5 day period of impressive cold as well but nothing to the extent of what is being suggested by some LR forecasters.

For you, Rgem was 3-4 degrees too cold, other suites between 1 and 7 degrees too warm. HRRR was the closest of the ones I looked at showing you hitting 26. Roofus not running right now apparently. Sample taken from yesterday's 18Z runs. Have some extra interest in this because the Rgem is so much lower than other suites the next 2 nights. Rad cooling induced.

24 here this Am. Looks like MDT made 25 and THV 21.

I am not punting snow chances but greatest pattern in "x" years is still up for debate.

Cold is step 1. Until I see it, the gas stays in the can.

Not worried per se but would like to some true winter cold show in an op run at some point. All of this is too far out to worry......

The GFS changes so drastically each time, but my worry/take is that at no time are temps here cold enough to be comfortable with any solution. The cold on the GFS is like this week's cold snap coming up....no SW influence. Once we get any kind of storm nearby, the cold caves. Very LR map but it is representative of other periods.

Colder air pressing into PA for V-Day but the low-pressure complex has no mechanism to do anything but scoot out to the east. On to later Feb for this run of the GFS. PDIII or whatever.

Two areas of low pressure as we get into V-Day Eve. Still questionable air over PA. Every run of the GFS is like a totally new movie right now.

18Z GFS has a gulf low forming at 192. Air over PA is not overly cold though. The 2/12 storm was a southern slider rainer.