Bubbler86

18Z GFS. WSW merited for much of PA on this map.

I would be super surprised to see us get 2-4" of rain period.... not surprised if we get little to no snow. The ground around here is more saturated than normal, despite the summer drought, so that much rain is a worry for streams. Saw several farm fields today with water puddled in low areas.

They had a choice of shady maple or snowy maple and went with shady because they at least get 4-5 months out of the name instead of a couple weeks.

Not at all saying this for controversy but the RGEM depiction would call for flood watches. 2-4" for much of the LSV (mostly rain)

Fill up for a long night waiting for the Euro. Have fun.

You had her drive so you could PBP 18Z models on your 13" iPad. Makes sense!

It probably hit 70 in some spots but just remembered when I was passing places. It is still 67 just west of me on WU. High in Rou was 64.

Car therm obs today (MDT only made mid 50's) Fairfield-67 Cashtown Inn-64 Chambersburg-65 Taneytown MD-69 Base at Ski Liberty-66

As blizz would say, see you at 18z. Lol

You and others were adamant at times that the pattern change was mid-month, not now. When the V-Day threat looked lost the mantra was "well the pattern change is not happening until the 15th, we all need to be patient" so kicking the can forward and saying the pattern already changed seems off a bit. Definitely agree with your highlighted comment.

Back when these types of forums covered larger areas, there was a lot of angst since what is good for one is not for the other. People in NYC and NE would hate on MA people when cheering on a storm that missed NYC to the south. Since all areas of the East US were posting in the same thread it was tough to not have people get mad. Glad you guys do not hate when we root for a situation that may leave you dry.

I guess the reason I said that is if we want to believe/hope for the EPS mean to be reality, would you not have to also take what is shows to the south?

More tracking coming hopefully...just not a slam dunk, IMO.

Just cannot believe that BWI gets 2" with the temps. Would really take a rapid deepening once to the SE. Snow on the way out.

We agree on this point not just for Joe B, but the general way LR forecasts are conceived sometimes. It is not the forecasting of events such as NAO and MJO positions, it is 1) Assuming the models are right which I think is crazy 2) Assuming what will happen based on previous events even if the models nail future indices. Great to talk about and theorize, not so great to make statements that things WILL happen. Not pointed at anyone (except when someone replies to me and acts like I am wrong because the 15-day ensembles said so) vs. a opine on why we get disappointments sometimes. Edit-Man, the MA panic room is losing it.

He is one of the most famous to do what you were suggesting...was being sarcastic.

Yea, taken down by the south westerlies again over here.

I cannot see all the details, but Ukie is nicer than I was expecting. Also, the Roofus through 60 matches the Nam quite well with SLP position and heights out in front. Still in the game even if I think it ends up too warm. I would be happy to be wrong.

But Joe Bastardi!

A windows wide open 49 here.

You guys have great patience on this forum listening to all the LSV talk (including from me). Props to you.

it does but better than the OTS 1000 plus low of a day or so ago. I still think temps are an issue but lots of snowy solutions showing up....better north of us of course.

Rgem with the rouzerville/marysville snow hole through 84.

Upper low still to our west at that point. Not at all buying this but temps in the 20's I would think Lsv ends up 6-10"

Namtastic. A unique run but LSV special.