frd

Mid August could trend cooler and wetter

More interesting news.

Interesing if you look at various modeling over the next 15 days in out region and animate it you will see our area is sandwich in what appears to be excessive heat just to our West and then cooler over us . This area then rapidly transitioning to warmer over the coastal areas to our East, partly theAtlantic SSTs maybe. But, very odd looking at that yesterda, not sure it is still there today. I would think this enhances the chances of precip over our region. I believe the Euro week 1, 2 and 3 all had above normal precip over us , I think week 1 and 3 were the most robust.

Seems HM thinks more variables then just low solar . I agree, but having this in our favor can not hurt. I would actually like to see a moderate EL Nino , as weak just does not cut it down here in our region. Bring on a moderate Nino and percentages of more significant snowfall rise. Also, wondering about the SSTs up near and North of Europe and what that means for blocking this winter seaon. Not talking the look of the tri pole for ideal - NAO, but more so the implications for the formation of blocking highs that may in turn retrograde towards Greenland over time, under more favorable hemeispheric QBO conditions, just speculation.

I am in Northern Middletown. DE. and that cell was wicked , heavy blinding rains, winds estimated at 40 mph, trees bending and was worried for a while, some cloud to ground strikes as well.

The spotless streak continues

Interesting things regarding the MJO

Very sad . I worry a bit that as soil moisture increases a high impact wind event would spell big time trouble in these parts.

There are some logical relationships that have this scenario somewhat more plausiable this year. Looking forward to the continued drop in solar activity as we near the solar minimum. Of note as well, is a somewhat different summer up North this year.

Appears to be some potential on this Friday, although as usual there are a few factors that reduce that potential.

So far, based on storm totals the Euro's rainfall output is not verifying where as the HRR seems to be doing much better. Heaviest rainfall has been way more West then modeled. Whether that changes after 5 PM into the early evening I am not sure.

Imagine if this was a mid winter SECS :-) Hopefully it just requires fine tunning, from what I read 3 months ago I thought it was good / better than the current model.

Thanks

Do you think the heaviest rain still falls along the I 95 area and East, or do you believe the heaviest rains will fall West of say Baltimore ? When I looked this AM I saw the heaviest modeled rain totals from lower Delaware going North and Northnorthwest. If the HRR is to be believed those areas miss out on the heaviest totals . Thanks

When you look at the current radar over the East with the Upper low over the Midwest , the bow echo line dropping SE into Atlanta and the SE states, and the coastal moving North really looks like a winter event. Pretty cool to look at and run a loop .

Family at Ocean City this weekend, looks like waterspots are even possible later today and tonight . Think the Euro had some 10 meter wind gusts possible as well, up to 55 to 65 mph in places Cape May Court House off the Garden State Parkway I thought I saw the highest 10 meter wind gust forecasted

Impressive

Looks like 3.4 going in reverse while the Eastern regions are LaNina like still. Seems from other forums and mets warming to resume in the West Pac in August. I have read that a weak EL Nino is likely maybe moderate but too early to tell about that still.

I was hoping for 4 to 5 inches of rain , I knew this would trend West .

Dewey Beach, the new Boston

From the morning Mount Holly AFD, which I don't like this specific wording : Coverage of thunderstorms: Thunderstorms look likely across the region, though in Delmarva and far south Jersey, weaker shear and limited synoptic scale lift may limit more organized convection.

Seems for some reason we have not been able to cash in on the high PW vapor present the last few times, maybe today. But, like in winters with back luck when I see the rain falling only then will I believe it . A week and a half ago I was watering my garden during the flood watch ;-)

For visuals and this

First rain yesterday in a while was a relief. Mount Holly states this AM the PW is at a climate high for tomorrow for my region and HM chimmed in on social media thinking robust rainfall potential tomorrow for the Delaware Valley is a good bet. I am closer to this region, versus Philly, but I like the odds tomorrow. Also, seeing more and more evidence that cooler and wetter pattern develops soon and lasts into early August.

Hmmm, time to go long on winter gear, road salt, brine , natural gas and snow shovels !! I agree with your optimism. Been waiting a while for this winter as some key players "seem" to be in our corner this year.